2024Q1盈利环比增长，空悬业务稳健发展

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% within the next 6 to 12 months [3][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 963 million yuan in Q1 2024, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.27% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.13%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 93 million yuan, down 11.80% year-on-year but up 15.70% quarter-on-quarter [8]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to weak domestic sales, with heavy truck insurance data indicating a year-on-year drop of 17.1% in Q1 2024 [8]. - Profitability improved quarter-on-quarter due to a decrease in expense ratios, with a gross margin of 24.34% and a net margin of 9.57% in Q1 2024 [8]. - The company plans to add six new production lines in 2024, which is expected to enhance revenue [8]. - The air suspension business is experiencing steady growth, with sales of approximately 600,000 units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 25.62% [9]. - The international market for heavy trucks is showing positive growth, with exports expected to continue increasing due to strong product competitiveness [9]. - The report highlights a significant replacement demand in the heavy truck sector, which is anticipated to drive industry recovery [9]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are 470 million yuan and 530 million yuan, respectively, with a projected growth rate of 20% and 13% [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 4,006 million yuan in 2023, 4,504 million yuan in 2024, 4,886 million yuan in 2025, and 5,162 million yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 28%, 12%, 8%, and 6% respectively [4]. - Net profit forecasts are 391 million yuan for 2023, 468 million yuan for 2024, 529 million yuan for 2025, and 546 million yuan for 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 92%, 20%, 13%, and 3% respectively [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.34 yuan in 2023, 0.41 yuan in 2024, 0.46 yuan in 2025, and 0.48 yuan in 2026 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 15.2 in 2023 to 10.9 in 2026, indicating improving valuation [4].