YILI(600887) 广发证券·2024-05-03 07:32Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 30.82 CNY [2] Core Views - The company achieved a 2023 revenue of 126.179 billion CNY, up 2.44% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 10.58% YoY to 10.429 billion CNY [1] - In 2023, the company's liquid milk, milk powder, and dairy products, and cold beverage segments generated revenues of 85.54 billion CNY, 27.598 billion CNY, and 10.688 billion CNY, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 0.72%, 5.09%, and 11.72% [1] - The company's net profit margin increased by 0.61 pct to 8.26% in 2023, driven by rational marketing expenses and lower milk prices [1] - In Q1 2024, the company's revenue declined by 2.58% YoY, mainly due to inventory reduction efforts, but net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 63.84% YoY [1] - The company aims for a 2024 revenue target of 130 billion CNY, representing a 3.03% YoY growth, with a dividend payout ratio of 73.25% in 2023, increasing to 79.94% after accounting for share repurchases [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 130.153 billion CNY, 136.876 billion CNY, and 143.54 billion CNY in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 3.15%, 5.17%, and 4.87% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 13.079 billion CNY, 12.387 billion CNY, and 13.178 billion CNY in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 25.42%, -5.29%, and 6.38% [1] Financial Ratios - The company's ROE is projected to be 19.8%, 16.2%, and 15.2% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The net profit margin is expected to improve to 10.0%, 9.0%, and 9.1% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The P/E ratio is forecasted to be 13.77, 14.54, and 13.67 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4]