2023年报及24Q1季报点评：行业底部的韧性比黄金珍贵

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3][21]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 139.1 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 2.33% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.57 billion yuan, down 47.25% year-on-year. In Q1 2024, revenue was 19.57 billion yuan, a decline of 41.13%, with a net loss of 0.79 billion yuan, down 109.15% year-on-year. The rapid decline in prices within the photovoltaic industry has pressured both revenue and profit, but the company maintains a leading position due to its cost efficiency and strong resilience at the industry bottom [1][2]. Summary by Sections Silicon Material - The company has a current production capacity of 450,000 tons of high-purity silicon, with an additional 400,000 tons under construction. The company achieved a sales volume of 387,200 tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 50.79%, capturing over 25% of the global market share. Although profitability may be under pressure for 3-4 quarters, the release of advanced production capacity is expected to enhance competitive advantages in the next 2-3 years [1]. Battery Cells - The company is a leader in the development of TOPCon PECVD technology, with its TNC battery achieving an average conversion efficiency of 26.26%. The company plans to complete the transformation of approximately 38 GW of PERC capacity by 2024 and add 16 GW and 25 GW of TNC battery capacity at its Meishan and Shuangliu bases, respectively. By the end of 2024, the TNC battery capacity is expected to exceed 100 GW [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Advice - Due to the supply-demand imbalance in the photovoltaic industry, the company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025, reducing the expected net profit from 13.38 billion yuan and 19.30 billion yuan to 2.46 billion yuan and 7.54 billion yuan, respectively. However, a significant profit increase to 15.49 billion yuan is anticipated in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 39.7x, 13.0x, and 6.3x for the next three years. The recommendation remains "Accumulate" [2][6].