YANKUANG ENERGY(600188) 国泰君安·2024-05-05 03:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1500.25 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 33.31%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 201.4 billion yuan, down 39.62% [2][3] - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 396.33 billion yuan, a decline of 20.76%, and a net profit of 37.57 billion yuan, down 41.85%, which was below market expectations [2][3] - Due to the decline in market prices in Q1 2024, the EPS estimates for 2024-2025 have been revised down to 2.60 and 2.82 respectively, with a new 2026 EPS estimate of 3.06 [2][3] - The target price has been adjusted to 28.00 yuan, reflecting an increase of 6.24 yuan based on a comparable company average PE of 10.77x for 2024 [2][3] Summary by Sections Sales and Production - The coal sales remained stable in 2023, with a production of 132 million tons, an increase of 0.61%, and sales of 127 million tons, a decrease of 6.21% [2] - In Q1 2024, production rose to 34.635 million tons, an increase of 15.43%, while sales increased to 34.184 million tons, up 7.11% [2] - The average selling price of coal in 2023 was 803 yuan per ton, down 274 yuan per ton, and in Q1 2024, it was 727 yuan per ton, down 300 yuan per ton [2] Coal Chemical and Power Generation - The coal chemical segment reported a sales volume of 7.862 million tons in 2023, with Q1 2024 sales remaining stable at 2.164 million tons [2] - The sales revenue for the coal chemical segment was 26.398 billion yuan in 2023, with Q1 2024 revenue at 6.258 billion yuan, a decrease of 4% [2] Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% for the years 2023-2025, with a dividend of 1.49 yuan per share in 2023, resulting in a payout ratio of 55% [2][3]