Runda Medical(603108) 国投证券·2024-05-06 00:30Investment Rating - The report assigns a Buy-A rating to RunDa Medical (603108 SH) with a 6-month target price of 21 74 RMB, implying a 35x forward P E ratio for 2024 [5][7] Core Views - RunDa Medical's Q1 2024 revenue declined by 4 85% YoY to 2 072 billion RMB, while net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 72 11% YoY to 23 million RMB The revenue decline was attributed to domestic medical policy impacts, and the profit decline was due to extended payment cycles from hospital clients, leading to higher credit impairment losses [1] - The company's 2023 revenue decreased by 12 84% YoY to 9 147 billion RMB, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 34 58% YoY to 273 million RMB The decline was driven by a significant drop in third-party laboratory testing business and macroeconomic and medical policy impacts [15] - The industrial segment grew steadily, with revenue increasing by 15 73% YoY to 561 million RMB, driven by new product contributions However, third-party laboratory business revenue dropped by 78 14% YoY to 296 million RMB due to a high base effect in 2022 [14] Business Segments - The intensive business/regional testing center business generated 2 633 billion RMB in revenue in 2023, down 1 23% YoY, due to slower new customer acquisition and the termination of some extended payment cycle businesses [14] - The medical informatization business grew by 10 42% YoY to 133 million RMB, contributing to the industrial segment's growth [14] - The company is focusing on smart testing, developing digital and AI products for laboratory management and quality control, with promising application prospects It is also extending digital medical and AI technologies to pharmacy and health checkup scenarios [16][29] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15 29%, 16 92%, and 16 29% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 10 546 billion RMB, 12 330 billion RMB, and 14 339 billion RMB, respectively [7][21] - Net profit is projected to grow at a CAGR of 36 08%, 19 05%, and 16 69% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 372 million RMB, 443 million RMB, and 517 million RMB, respectively [7][21] - The pharmaceutical commercial segment is expected to grow at 14 99%, 16 71%, and 16 01%, while the pharmaceutical industrial segment is forecasted to grow at 20 00%, 20 00%, and 20 47% from 2024 to 2026 [21] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's forward P E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 29 2x, 24 6x, and 21 0x, respectively, compared to an average of 31 46x, 15 70x, and 12 38x for peers like Wondfo Biotech, Sansure Biotech, YHLO, and Bioperfectus [20][22] - The target price of 21 74 RMB is based on a 35x forward P E ratio for 2024, reflecting the company's recovery potential and AI-driven growth prospects [7][32]