24Q1业绩符合预期，预计全年稳健增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month target price indicating an expected return of over 20% [5][26]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.01 billion yuan in Q1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 70 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [14][15]. - The performance in Q1 2024 met expectations, with a forecast for steady growth throughout the year. The mooncake and frozen food segments experienced a decline, while the restaurant segment showed robust growth [15][19]. - The company anticipates continued steady growth in the mooncake market, supported by increasing industry regulation and market concentration. The frozen food market is expected to grow rapidly, with plans for capacity expansion and diversification of product lines and channels [19]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q1 2024, revenue from different product categories was as follows: mooncakes 10 million yuan (down 20.1% YoY), frozen foods 300 million yuan (down 4.1% YoY), restaurant services 380 million yuan (up 13.3% YoY), and other categories 300 million yuan (up 27.6% YoY) [1]. - Revenue from direct sales and distribution channels in Q1 2024 was 190 million yuan and 410 million yuan respectively, both showing a year-on-year increase of 9.0% [2]. - Revenue from different regions in Q1 2024 included 450 million yuan from Guangdong province (up 6.6% YoY), 140 million yuan from outside Guangdong (up 13.7% YoY), and 10 million yuan from overseas (up 70.5% YoY) [3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2024 decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 29.8%. The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 9.8%, 8.4%, 1.8%, and -0.7% respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.4, -0.7, +0.1, and -1.3 percentage points [4]. - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 600 million yuan, 663 million yuan, and 720 million yuan respectively, maintaining previous estimates [19]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue for the company is projected to grow from 4.11 billion yuan in 2022 to 6.49 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 5.72%, 19.17%, 9.40%, 10.00%, and 10.00% for the respective years [20]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.91 yuan in 2022 to 1.27 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.00, 18.91, 17.34, 15.69, and 14.46 [20][28].