GREE(000651) 兴业证券·2024-05-06 05:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2050.18 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.82%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 290.17 billion yuan, up 18.41% year-on-year. The gross profit margin improved to 30.57%, an increase of 4.53 percentage points [1][2] - The company is a leading player in the domestic air conditioning market, characterized by undervaluation and high dividend yield. The company is actively responding to the "old-for-new" replacement policy with a subsidy of 3 billion yuan, which is expected to boost future sales performance [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 492.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.70%, and a net profit of 89.25 billion yuan, up 43.90% year-on-year. The gross profit margin for Q4 was 34.76%, an increase of 6.96 percentage points [1] - For Q1 2024, the company reported total revenue of 365.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.53%, and a net profit of 46.75 billion yuan, up 13.77% year-on-year. The gross profit margin was 29.45%, an increase of 2.04 percentage points [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23.80 yuan per 10 shares, with a cash dividend rate of 45.29% for 2023 [1] Revenue Breakdown - In 2023, the company's revenue from air conditioning, home appliances, industrial products, smart equipment, and green energy was 1512.17 billion yuan, 40.02 billion yuan, 100.03 billion yuan, 6.70 billion yuan, and 71.06 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +12.13%, -12.39%, +31.63%, +55.03%, and +51.16% [1] - For Q1 2024, the domestic and foreign sales of Gree air conditioners increased by 9.35% and 10.00% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in both domestic and international markets [1] Profitability and Forecast - The company’s profitability improved in Q1 2024, attributed to product mix optimization and cost management. The company’s contract liabilities at the end of Q1 were 204.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.93 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating support for future growth [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.48 yuan, 5.97 yuan, and 6.40 yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 7.7, 7.1, and 6.6 times [2][1]