ECOVACS(603486) 光大证券·2024-05-06 07:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ecovacs Robotics (603486 SH) [2] Core Views - Ecovacs has reached an inflection point in profitability, with operations gradually improving [2] - Overseas sales continue to grow rapidly, while domestic sales show marginal improvement [5] - The company has strengthened its product lineup in the 3000 RMB price segment, driving sales growth [5] - R&D investment has increased, although net profit margins remain under pressure [5] - The report forecasts significant growth in net profit for 2024-2026, with PE ratios of 20/17/14 respectively [5] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2023 revenue: 15 5 billion RMB (YoY +1%) [4] - 2023 net profit: 612 million RMB (YoY -63 96%) [7] - 2024 Q1 revenue: 3 5 billion RMB (YoY +7%) [4] - 2024 Q1 net profit: 300 million RMB (YoY -9%) [4] Segment Performance - Ecovacs brand revenue: 7 7 billion RMB (YoY -1%) [5] - Tineco brand revenue: 7 3 billion RMB (YoY +5%) [5] - Overseas revenue growth: Ecovacs +20%, Tineco +41% [5] Key Metrics - 2023 gross margin: 47 5% (YoY -4 1pct) [5] - 2023 net profit margin: 4 0% (YoY -7 1pct) [5] - 2024 Q1 net profit margin: 8 6% (YoY -1 5pct) [5] - 2023 cash dividend payout ratio: 28% [4] Product and Market Analysis - Ecovacs' all-in-one robot vacuum revenue share reached 79 9% (YoY +29pct) [5] - Tineco's Floor One series shipped 3 227 million units (YoY +25%) [5] - Domestic online sales in 2024 Q1: Ecovacs -2%, Tineco +22% [5] - Domestic offline sales in 2024 Q1: Ecovacs +26%, Tineco +22% [5] Financial Projections Revenue - 2024E: 17 559 billion RMB (YoY +13 27%) [7] - 2025E: 19 694 billion RMB (YoY +12 16%) [7] - 2026E: 22 036 billion RMB (YoY +11 89%) [7] Net Profit - 2024E: 1 425 billion RMB (YoY +132 88%) [7] - 2025E: 1 694 billion RMB (YoY +18 84%) [7] - 2026E: 1 977 billion RMB (YoY +16 69%) [7] Valuation - 2024E PE: 20x [5] - 2025E PE: 17x [5] - 2026E PE: 14x [5] Operational Highlights - The T30 series has filled the 3000 RMB price segment, driving sales growth [5] - Emerging businesses (lawn mowers and food processors) have significantly reduced losses [5] - The company maintains its leading position in both domestic and international markets [5]