线缆+高分子料龙头，一体化铸就中长期成本优势

Investment Rating and Core Views - The report gives the company a "Buy" rating with a target price of 12.21 yuan, based on a 2024 PE multiple of 18X [1][2] - The core view is that the company, as a leader in cable and polymer materials, has a long-term cost advantage through vertical integration [1] - The company's polymer materials business is expected to benefit from import substitution and overseas expansion, while its cable business is well-positioned for growth in the robotics and high-performance flexible cable sectors [1] Polymer Materials Business - The domestic polymer materials market is estimated at 70 billion yuan in 2023, with high-voltage polymer materials accounting for over 5 billion yuan [1] - The company has a 30% market share in low-medium voltage insulation materials and 10% in high-voltage materials, with significant growth potential through import substitution [1] - Key growth drivers include: 1) localization of submarine cable polymer materials, 2) overseas expansion with a 35% YoY increase in export sales in 2023, and 3) vertical integration to reduce raw material costs [1] - The company's 220KV ultra-high voltage cable insulation material has reached international advanced levels, breaking foreign technology monopolies [1] Cable Business - The company is the only domestic cable manufacturer certified by KUKA, one of the "Big Four" robotics companies, and is in talks with ABB for potential collaboration [1] - The robotics cable market is expected to grow as China's industrial robot sales reached 316,000 units in 2023, up 4.3% YoY [52] - The company has overcome technical challenges in flexible cables, achieving over 20 million bending cycles and passing certifications from UL, ETL, CE, and CPR [53] Charging Pile Business - The company is one of the earliest domestic players in charging station operations, with equipment upgrades and rising EV adoption expected to improve station utilization and profitability [1] - The company offers a comprehensive product line from 7kW to 480kW, including DC fast chargers and smart AC chargers [110] - Its unique cloud platform system integrates with various stakeholders, including automakers, fleet operators, and government regulators, enhancing operational efficiency [111] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 18.3 billion yuan in 2024 to 21.2 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 6-9% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 702 million yuan in 2024 to 990 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 18-26% [1] - The company's polymer materials business is forecasted to maintain a high growth rate, contributing significantly to overall profitability [1] Industry Overview - The domestic cable industry is expected to grow at a 5% CAGR, reaching over 1.5 trillion yuan by 2027, driven by grid upgrades and high-voltage projects [82] - The submarine cable market is projected to grow from 16.8 billion yuan in 2022 to 38.5 billion yuan in 2025, with polymer insulation and shielding materials accounting for 8.79% and 2.48% of material costs, respectively [85] - The high-voltage polymer materials market is expected to grow from 1.5 billion USD in 2022 to 2.3 billion USD in 2029, with China accounting for 50% of global demand [94]