MELCO INT'L DEV(00200) 东吴证券国际·2024-05-07 12:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's total gaming revenue for Q1 2024 reached USD 1.19 billion, recovering to 74.7% of the level seen in Q1 2019. The Macau properties generated total gaming revenue of USD 1.01 billion, recovering to 72.1% of the same period in 2019 [2][3] - The company has actively adjusted its customer acquisition strategy by integrating the sales teams of its two Macau properties, which has led to improved performance. In March 2024, both properties achieved record high betting amounts, and the company's market share continued to increase in April 2024 [2] - The company plans to introduce RFID gaming tables in Q2 2024, with full implementation expected by Q2 2025, which is anticipated to boost overall gaming revenue [2] Financial Performance and Forecast - For Q1 2024, the company reported net revenue of USD 1.11 billion, aligning with Bloomberg consensus estimates, and recovering to 81.5% of Q1 2019 levels. Gaming and non-gaming net revenues were USD 0.91 billion and USD 0.20 billion, respectively [3] - The adjusted property EBITDA for Q1 2024 was USD 0.30 billion, also meeting expectations, and recovering to 72.2% of the same period in 2019. After standardizing for win rates, the adjusted property EBITDA increased to USD 0.33 billion, recovering to 87.3% of Q1 2019 levels [3] - The company expects daily operating expenses to rise to approximately USD 3 million in 2024, with capital expenditures projected at USD 420 million, including USD 50 million for a new project in Sri Lanka [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net income forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to HKD 37.94 billion, HKD 40.87 billion, and HKD 42.74 billion, respectively. The adjusted property EBITDA forecasts are HKD 10.58 billion, HKD 12.26 billion, and HKD 13.06 billion for the same period [3] - The current stock price corresponds to EV/EBITDA multiples of 5.9, 5.1, and 4.8 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The target price is set at HKD 7.6, maintaining the "Buy" rating [3]