SANY(600031) Guolian Securities·2024-05-07 14:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SANY Heavy Industry with a target price of 18.48 CNY, based on a current price of 16.93 CNY [6][7]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the domestic market's equipment replacement demand and the continuous growth of overseas business [2][4]. - SANY Heavy Industry's revenue for 2023 was 74.019 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.44% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.53% to 4.527 billion CNY [2][4]. - The company's overseas business showed significant growth, with international revenue accounting for 60.48% of total revenue, up 14.78 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the revenue breakdown by product was as follows: concrete machinery (15.315 billion CNY), excavators (27.636 billion CNY), cranes (12.999 billion CNY), pile machinery (2.085 billion CNY), road machinery (2.485 billion CNY), and others (11.001 billion CNY) [3]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 27.71% and a net margin of 6.29% in 2023, with improvements in gross margin attributed to changes in revenue structure [5][6]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 17.662 billion CNY, a slight decline of 0.73% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 4.21% to 1.58 billion CNY [4][6]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts revenues of 82.124 billion CNY, 93.067 billion CNY, and 104.815 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.94% [6][7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.83 CNY, 0.93 CNY, and 1.07 CNY, respectively [6][7].