低浓度阿托品放量可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.468 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 17.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 240 million yuan, up 13.39% year-on-year [2][3] - The low-concentration atropine eye drops have been launched, with significant market potential anticipated. The 0.01% atropine eye drops received production approval in March 2024, marking it as the first product in China aimed at slowing myopia progression [2][7] - The company focuses on ophthalmic drug research and development, with a product portfolio covering ten categories of ophthalmic drugs. As of the report date, it has obtained 57 approval numbers, with 35 products included in medical insurance [2][7] - The earnings forecast estimates EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 7.43 yuan, 10.51 yuan, and 16.46 yuan per share, respectively. The company is assigned a reasonable PE of 40x for 2024, leading to a target price of 297.35 yuan per share [2][17][18] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 3.262 billion yuan in 2024, 4.331 billion yuan in 2025, and 5.996 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 122.3%, 32.8%, and 38.5% respectively [3][16] - The gross margin is expected to improve, with the gross margin for low-concentration atropine projected to reach 90% due to low raw material costs and high production efficiency [11][15] - The sales expenses are anticipated to increase significantly during the rapid growth phase of low-concentration atropine, maintaining a sales expense ratio around 30% [15]