Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) [1] Core Views - ZTO Express has established a strong competitive position through three key decisions: the launch of inter-provincial express services, the implementation of a paid delivery fee system, and the reform to a shareholding structure, which have collectively contributed to its market leadership and long-term sustainability [3][4][5] - The "co-construction and sharing" philosophy is identified as a core competitive advantage, promoting cost reduction across the entire logistics chain and facilitating product stratification, which is expected to enhance performance and profitability [4][5] Historical Review - ZTO Express was founded in 2002 and became the first private express company to launch inter-provincial services in 2005, significantly expanding its network coverage [3][19] - The company adopted a paid delivery fee model in 2009, which improved network stability and service quality, leading to a substantial increase in business volume [3][21] - The shareholding reform initiated in 2014 allowed for centralized management and aligned the interests of network partners, further solidifying ZTO's competitive edge [3][24] Future Outlook - The "co-construction and sharing" strategy is expected to drive down costs across the logistics chain, particularly at the last-mile delivery stage, which accounts for a significant portion of overall costs [4][53] - ZTO Express aims to penetrate the mid-to-high-end market segments, optimizing its business structure and enhancing profitability through product stratification [4][5] - The company is projected to achieve revenue of 429.76 billion, 484.31 billion, and 545.56 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 100.77 billion, 118.07 billion, and 144.89 billion yuan [5]
深度报告：共建共享，基业长青评级：买入（维持）