BUD APAC-2024年一季报点评：高基数下西部市场承压，结构升级仍顺利

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) [3] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2024 revenue of $1.643 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 0.4% in organic terms; normalized EBITDA was$ 572 million, reflecting a 4.2% increase year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was $287 million, down 3.4% year-on-year [1][2] - Revenue growth was impacted by a high base and weather conditions in the Chinese market, but the company continues to successfully implement its premiumization strategy [2] - The company expects a continued decline in costs throughout the year, driven by lower raw material prices [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 sales volume was 2.1115 million kiloliters, down 4.8% year-on-year; average price per ton of beer increased by 4.6% [1] - Gross margin for Q1 2024 was 51.5%, up 2.06 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower barley prices [1] - Normalized EBITDA margin increased by 1.53 percentage points year-on-year [1] Regional Performance - Western Asia: Q1 2024 revenue and normalized EBITDA decreased by 1.5% and increased by 2.0% year-on-year, respectively; sales volume down 4.9% [1] - Eastern Asia: Q1 2024 revenue and normalized EBITDA increased by 5.2% and 18.7% year-on-year, respectively; sales volume down 4.0% [1] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profit for 2024-2026 to be$ 1.040 billion, $1.176 billion, and$ 1.317 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.56, 0.63, and 0.71 RMB [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 18x, 16x, and 14x for 2024-2026 [2]