CTGR(600905) 长城证券·2024-05-11 01:32Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [5][9] Core Views - The company's installed capacity is growing rapidly, with sufficient reserve projects to support high growth in the next 2-3 years [2] - Revenue is steadily increasing, driven by new project commissioning, but wind power profitability has slightly declined [3] - Average electricity prices for wind and solar have slightly decreased, but operating cash flow in Q1 2024 has significantly increased [4][9] - The company has a strong project pipeline, with long-term growth potential in the green power industry [9] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue reached 26,485 million yuan, up 11.2% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 7,181 million yuan, up 0.9% YoY [1] - 2024 Q1 revenue was 7,899 million yuan, up 15.3% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 2,422 million yuan, flat YoY [1] - Expected revenue for 2024-2026: 33,808, 40,129, and 45,676 million yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 8,735, 10,170, and 11,470 million yuan, respectively [1][9] - ROE is expected to improve from 8.7% in 2023 to 10.7% by 2026 [1] Installed Capacity - 2023 new installed capacity: 13,535.6 MW, including 3,494 MW of wind (616 MW offshore), 9,540 MW of solar, and 501 MW of other sources [2] - Total installed capacity reached 40,044 MW by the end of 2023 [2] - Projects under construction: 18,768 MW, with newly approved/filed projects of 26,499.2 MW [2] Profitability and Costs - 2023 gross margin and net margin were 55.1% and 31.2%, down 3.3 pct and 4.0 pct YoY, respectively [3] - Wind and solar gross margins in 2023 were 56.9% and 53.2%, with wind margin down 4.6 pct YoY [3] - Increased depreciation and operating costs due to new project commissioning impacted profitability [3] Electricity Prices and Cash Flow - 2023 average electricity prices (excluding tax) for wind and solar were 0.4923 yuan/kWh and 0.4927 yuan/kWh, down 4.2% and 0.5% YoY, respectively [4] - 2023 operating cash flow was 14,417 million yuan, down 14.2% YoY, but Q1 2024 operating cash flow increased 18.7% YoY to 4,420 million yuan [4][9] Valuation and Market Data - As of May 9, 2024, the stock price was 4.69 yuan, with a total market cap of 134,233.71 million yuan and a circulating market cap of 63,727.05 million yuan [5] - Estimated P/E ratios for 2024-2026: 15.4x, 13.2x, and 11.7x, respectively [1][9] - Estimated P/B ratios for 2024-2026: 1.5x, 1.4x, and 1.3x, respectively [1]