COL(300364) 中泰证券·2024-05-12 06:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 23.27 RMB [14] Core Views - The company's profitability is expected to improve, driven by cost control and business adjustments [21][48] - The digital reading industry is growing steadily, with AI empowering IP value mining and overseas entertainment markets offering significant potential [4][16] - The company is actively embracing AI technology to enhance IP operations and release value, with a mature IP development model [17][88] Industry Analysis - The digital reading industry is experiencing steady growth, with a mature user payment ecosystem and a healthy commercial environment [4][16] - AI is empowering the entire IP ecosystem, reducing development costs, and improving content production efficiency, which is expected to accelerate the transformation of text IPs into films, games, and animations [55] - The overseas entertainment market has strong demand, with short dramas showing significant growth potential, especially in markets like the US and Europe [61][65] Company Analysis - The company has a rich content reserve, forming a multi-dimensional content platform matrix, with over 5.6 million digital content resources and more than 4.5 million original authors [70] - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, launching multiple products such as Chapters, Kiss, and ReelShort, which have shown strong performance in overseas markets [29][104] - The company's IP derivative business is centered around literary IPs, with a focus on "web serialization + IP derivative simultaneous development," and has achieved significant results in audio, animation, and film and television adaptations [96][93] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2023 reached 1.409 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, with a significant improvement in profitability [21][48] - The company's gross profit margin in 2023 was 44.7%, and it is expected to gradually recover, reaching 53.6% by 2026 [123][142] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was 89 million RMB, and it is expected to grow to 240 million RMB by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 35.28% [134] Valuation and Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to reach 1.465 billion RMB in 2024, 1.627 billion RMB in 2025, and 1.815 billion RMB in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.98%, 11.10%, and 11.54%, respectively [134] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 128.3x in 2024, 95.6x in 2025, and 70.7x in 2026, with a valuation premium due to its leading position in digital content and AI technology [134][136]