HOLIKE(603898) 国泰君安·2024-05-14 08:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [21][27]. Core Views - The company continues to implement a whole-home customization strategy, with steady growth in the integrated channel expected [7][21]. - The target price has been adjusted to 12.64 yuan, down from the previous forecast of 14.43 yuan, reflecting a more cautious outlook due to anticipated slower growth in downstream demand [7][21]. - The company aims to optimize supply chain efficiency and reduce costs, achieving a gross margin of 35.62% in 2023, an increase of 0.27 percentage points [7][21]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 2,823 million yuan, with a projected decline to 2,265 million yuan in 2023, followed by a recovery to 2,491 million yuan in 2024 [12][25]. - Operating profit (EBIT) is expected to decrease from 369 million yuan in 2022 to 242 million yuan in 2023, with a gradual recovery to 288 million yuan in 2024 [12][25]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to drop from 431 million yuan in 2022 to 217 million yuan in 2023, with a slight increase to 245 million yuan in 2024 [12][25]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a comparison with peer companies, suggesting a 2024 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16 times for the company, reflecting ongoing investments in brand upgrades and channel expansion [13][21]. - The estimated EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to be 8.85 for 2023, decreasing to 8.53 in 2024 [12][25]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 14.2% in 2022 to 7.0% in 2023, with a gradual recovery to 7.5% in 2024 [12][25].