Yanghe(002304) Haitong Securities·2024-05-16 05:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 33.126 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.016 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year. However, Q4 saw a decline in revenue by 21.5% year-on-year and a net loss of 1.88 billion yuan, down 161.3% year-on-year [6][7] - The company continues to expand its market presence outside its home province, with revenue from ordinary liquor growing by 20.7% year-on-year, benefiting from the rapid growth of the "Shuanggou" brand. The proportion of revenue from outside the province increased by 0.86 percentage points to 55.7% [6][7] - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 75.2%, a year-on-year increase of 0.64 percentage points, while the gross profit margin for ordinary liquor significantly improved by 8.60 percentage points to 46.2% [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 33.126 billion yuan, with a net profit of 10.016 billion yuan. The Q1 2024 report showed revenue of 16.255 billion yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.055 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year [6][10] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 46.6 yuan per 10 shares, with a payout ratio of 70.1% [6] Product and Market Expansion - The company’s white liquor revenue grew by 10.4% year-on-year, with a notable increase in ordinary liquor sales. The company added 328 new distributors in the second half of 2023, bringing the total to 8,789 [6][7] - The company aims to deepen its market penetration and enhance operational efficiency through digital marketing tools and targeted sales strategies [6] Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 75.2%, with a slight decrease to 76.0% in Q1 2024. The company reported strong cash flow performance, with sales receipts and operating cash flow increasing by 13.0% and 10.5% year-on-year, respectively [6][7] - The net profit margin for 2023 was 30.2%, down 0.92 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased sales expenses and tax rates [7][10] Earnings Forecast - The company’s EPS is projected to be 7.31, 8.08, and 8.87 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The estimated P/E ratio for 2024 is between 16-20 times, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 116.97 to 146.22 yuan [6][10]