吉利汽车：品牌定位重构，电动化加速

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile (0175.HK) with a market price of HKD 10.22 [1]. Core Insights - Geely is expected to enter a new growth cycle in 2024, focusing on brand repositioning, channel innovation, and an increase in electrification rate, with a projected 45%+ penetration rate for new energy vehicles in 2024 [4][5]. - The company forecasts significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of HKD 214.63 billion, HKD 248.15 billion, and HKD 266.74 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, alongside net profits of HKD 7.45 billion, HKD 8.73 billion, and HKD 10.08 billion for the same years [6][41]. Summary by Sections Growth Review - The company experienced a growth cycle from 2015 to 2017, benefitting from the SUV boom and successful models like Emgrand and Boyue. However, from 2017 to 2020, it faced challenges due to tax reductions and management complexities. The period from 2021 to 2023 was marked by attempts at transformation, with slow progress in hybrid transitions [4][15]. New Energy Vehicles - Geely's new energy brands, including Galaxy, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co, have clear positioning. The Galaxy brand targets the 100,000 to 200,000 RMB price range, while Zeekr aims for the high-end market. The expected sales for Zeekr in 2024 are projected to reach 230,000 units, with significant growth anticipated for the Galaxy brand as well [5][33][38]. Fuel Vehicles - The company maintains a solid foundation in fuel vehicles, focusing on the 50,000 to 150,000 RMB market. Models like Emgrand and Bin Yue continue to perform well, with stable monthly sales above 10,000 units despite industry challenges [6][39]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report predicts overall revenue growth for Geely, with expected revenues of HKD 214.63 billion, HKD 248.15 billion, and HKD 266.74 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The corresponding net profits are projected to be HKD 7.45 billion, HKD 8.73 billion, and HKD 10.08 billion [6][41]. The report also highlights a favorable P/E ratio compared to industry averages, supporting the "Buy" rating [44].