Marubi(603983) 长江证券·2024-05-20 03:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected EPS for 2024-2026 at 0.91, 1.13, and 1.43 yuan respectively [3][41] Core Views - The company's online channels, particularly Douyin, have become a significant growth driver, contributing to a 50.4% YoY increase in online revenue in 2023 [2][28] - The company's multi-brand strategy has shown success, with the main brand "丸美" achieving a 12% revenue growth and the secondary brand "恋火" growing 125% YoY [28] - The company's gross margin improved by 2.3 percentage points in 2023, driven by online channel expansion, product structure optimization, and cost control [14] - In 2024Q1, the company's revenue grew 38.73% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 40.62% [13] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 2.226 billion yuan, a 28.52% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 259 million yuan, up 48.93% YoY [13] - The company's gross margin remained stable at around 72% from 2023 to 2026E, with operating profit margins expected to maintain at 15% [7] - The company's net profit margin improved to 11.7% in 2023, with further improvements expected to 12.6% in 2024E [7] - The company's ROE is projected to increase from 7.8% in 2023 to 12.1% by 2026E [7] Product and Brand Strategy - The company's main brand "丸美" successfully revitalized its product line, with the "小红笔" eye cream achieving over 200 million yuan in GMV and the "双胶原小金针" essence surpassing 200 million yuan in GMV [28] - The secondary brand "恋火" has established a strong foothold in the makeup base category, with five major products each exceeding 100 million yuan in GMV [28] - The company's restructuring collagen series products have seen increasing revenue contribution, driving gross margin improvement [39] Channel Performance - Online revenue accounted for 18.71 billion yuan in 2023, with Douyin growing 106.29% YoY, significantly outpacing overall online growth [28] - Offline channel revenue declined by 27.17% in 2023, but the company maintained stable operations for existing offline stores [28] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its multi-brand strategy and online channel expansion, with revenue projected to grow from 2.888 billion yuan in 2024E to 4.612 billion yuan in 2026E [7] - The company's EPS is forecasted to grow from 0.91 yuan in 2024E to 1.43 yuan in 2026E, supported by improved profitability and operational efficiency [3][7]