周大生2023年报及2024Q1季报点评：黄金业务持续增长，高分红预期强化

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 16.29 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.5%, with a net profit of 1.32 billion yuan, up 20.7% year-on-year. In Q1 2024, revenue was 5.07 billion yuan, a 23.0% increase, while net profit decreased by 6.6% to 340 million yuan [5][6]. - The company opened 490 new stores in 2023, with a total of 5,106 stores by year-end. The wholesale gold business is experiencing rapid growth, with a gross profit of 2.96 billion yuan, up 27.9% year-on-year. The gross profit from pure gold jewelry wholesale reached 1.19 billion yuan, a 72% increase [6][7]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.65 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 54%. Future dividend plans indicate a cumulative payout ratio of no less than 50% from 2024 to 2026, enhancing dividend certainty [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 16.29 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.32 billion yuan. The gross profit margin was 18% [12]. - For Q1 2024, the gross profit was 790 million yuan, a 6.9% increase year-on-year, while operating profit was 420 million yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year due to increased expenses [6][12]. Store Expansion and Business Strategy - The company has accelerated its store expansion, with a net increase of 490 stores in 2023, including 408 franchise stores and 82 direct stores. The company aims to add 400-600 new stores in 2024 [6][7]. - The product strategy focuses on cultural and artistic themes, enhancing brand value and product appeal [7]. Future Guidance - The company expects a revenue growth of 15%-25% and a net profit growth of 5%-15% in 2024. EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are 1.35, 1.52, and 1.70 yuan, respectively [7][12].