Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express [2][4] Core Views - ZTO Express reported Q1 2024 earnings with revenue of 9.96 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.22 billion RMB, up 15.8% year-on-year, meeting expectations [2] - The company is optimizing its parcel volume structure, achieving steady growth with a business volume of 7.17 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. The market share reached 19.3%, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points, primarily due to changes in industry volume calculations and a focus on high-quality development [2] - ZTO Express is shifting its strategic focus towards enhancing service quality and operational efficiency, with a positive outlook on the growth of its parcel business driven by competitive advantages in service timeliness and cost-effectiveness [2] - The report highlights ZTO Express's role as a leading company in expanding industry value, with expectations for both short-term growth and long-term development [2] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: 2024E at 44.41 billion RMB, 2025E at 50.05 billion RMB, and 2026E at 56.52 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 13%, and 13% respectively [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are 10.87 billion RMB for 2024E, 13.09 billion RMB for 2025E, and 15.67 billion RMB for 2026E, with year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 20%, and 20% respectively [3] - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 13x for 2024E, 11x for 2025E, and 9x for 2026E, reflecting the company's strong competitive position and earnings certainty [2][3]
中通快递-W：战略重心转向提升服务，引领行业价值扩容