ELLASSAY(603808) 广发证券·2024-05-27 11:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 7.62 CNY and a reasonable value of 8.70 CNY [14]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual improvement in performance throughout 2024, despite facing challenges in overseas operations [2][44]. - The company's 2023 performance showed a significant recovery post-pandemic, with a revenue of 2.915 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 21.73%, and a net profit of 106 million CNY, up 416.56% [23][30]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 749 million CNY, a 12.47% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 38.25% due to increased overseas losses and new equity incentive costs [7][49]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 2.915 billion CNY, with a net profit of 106 million CNY, marking a 416.56% increase year-on-year [23][30]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of 749 million CNY, a 12.47% increase, but a net profit of 29 million CNY, down 38.25% year-on-year [7][49]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.40 CNY for every 10 shares [23]. Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 3.308 billion CNY in 2024, 3.772 billion CNY in 2025, and 4.251 billion CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 13.5%, 14.0%, and 12.7% respectively [16][30]. - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.58 CNY, 0.80 CNY, and 1.03 CNY respectively [19][30]. Brand Performance - The main brand ELLASSAY is projected to generate revenues of 1.252 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 16.73% [52]. - The Laurel brand is expected to see revenues of 427 million CNY in 2024, growing by 22.67% [52]. - The IRO brand is forecasted to have a slight decline in revenue in 2024, with a projected revenue of 724 million CNY [52]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 68.98%, with slight increases projected for the following years [28][30]. - The company aims to optimize costs and reduce losses in overseas operations by closing unprofitable stores [44][54].