MILKYWAY(603713) 广发证券·2024-05-27 11:31Company Overview - The company, established in 1997, initially focused on international freight forwarding and expanded into hazardous material storage in 1999 [8] - It has evolved into a comprehensive logistics and trading service provider, offering global freight forwarding, global mobility, regional warehousing and distribution, and unique distribution services [52] - The company operates in seven major clusters across China, including Northern, Shandong, Yangtze River, Shanghai, Zhejiang-Fujian, Western, and Guangdong-Guangxi regions [174] Business Model and Revenue Structure - The company's business model integrates logistics and trading, leveraging synergies between the two to create value [115] - In 2023, logistics and trading businesses contributed 56% and 44% of total revenue, respectively, with unique distribution being the largest segment at 44.4% [202] - The company's revenue structure is diversified, with global freight forwarding, regional domestic delivery, regional warehousing and distribution, and global mobility contributing 22.8%, 19.0%, 7.1%, and 6.7% of total revenue, respectively [202] Financial Performance - In 1Q2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 40.62% YoY to 151 million yuan [11] - The company's revenue in 2023 was 9.753 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.7% YoY, but it is expected to grow by 26.6%, 19.0%, and 16.5% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [42] - The company's gross profit margin in 2023 was 11.76%, with regional warehousing and distribution contributing the highest gross profit margin at 47.87% [141] Industry and Market Analysis - The global freight forwarding market is highly correlated with freight rates, and the company's revenue in this segment decreased by 41% in 2023 due to a significant drop in freight rates [198] - The Chinese chemical logistics market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.2% from 2022 to 2027, driven by the expansion of the chemical industry [12] - The third-party chemical logistics market in China is expected to reach a penetration rate of 47.6% by 2027, up from 30% in 2020, indicating significant growth potential [170] Growth Strategy - The company plans to expand its global footprint by entering new markets such as Vietnam and Thailand, and by investing in hazardous material warehouses, tank cleaning yards, and liquid bulk carriers [254] - It aims to enhance its service capabilities by extending its business to value-added services such as chemical repackaging, blending, laboratory analysis, and hazardous waste treatment [263] - The company is also exploring new sectors such as new energy, fast-moving consumer goods, and semiconductors to diversify its revenue streams and reduce cyclical risks [265] Investment Recommendation - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 75.60 yuan per share, based on a 20x PE multiple for 2024 [44] - The company's EPS is expected to be 3.78, 4.68, and 5.52 yuan per share in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, driven by improved domestic demand and rising international trade [270]