东诚药业：核医药行业领军者，创新资产引领价值重塑

Company Overview - Dongcheng Pharmaceutical is a leading domestic nuclear medicine company with three major business segments: nuclear medicine, APIs, and formulations [19] - The company has a stable equity structure, with Chairman You Shouyi directly holding 12.53% of shares and indirectly holding 15.15% through Dongyi Biotech [22] - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 3.276 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 210 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7% [25] Nuclear Medicine Business - The nuclear medicine business achieved revenue of 1.017 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, with key products 18F-FDG and Yunke Injection growing 12% and 19.52% respectively [31] - The company has formed a complete nuclear medicine industry chain from diagnosis to treatment through strategic acquisitions and internal R&D [19][86] - Dongcheng has 7 single-photon drug production centers and 20 positron drug production centers in operation, with 8 more under construction, covering 93.5% of the domestic population [96] API and Formulation Business - The API business revenue declined 18.61% to 1.678 billion yuan in 2023, mainly due to weak global heparin market demand and customer inventory accumulation [31] - Formulation business revenue decreased 17.2% to 400 million yuan, impacted by price reduction of Nadroparin Calcium Injection in the 8th national drug procurement [31] - The company has a diversified formulation product portfolio covering anticoagulation, cardiovascular, oncology, urology, orthopedics and anti-infective fields [115] R&D and Innovation - Dongcheng established Lannacheng as an innovative nuclear medicine R&D platform in 2021, focusing on tumor, neurodegenerative and cardiovascular diseases [107] - The company has 392 R&D personnel, accounting for 16.8% of total employees, with R&D investment reaching 313 million yuan in 2023, a 77.2% year-on-year increase [38] - Key pipeline products include 99mTc-Tetrofosmin, 18F-APN-1607, 18F-Alfatide II and 99mTc-GSA, with several in late-stage clinical trials [103][104] Industry and Market - The domestic PET/CT installation is expected to reach 1,667 units by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period, driving demand for nuclear medicine diagnostic agents [92] - Novartis leads the global nuclear medicine industry through strategic acquisitions and partnerships, with key products Lutathera and Pluvicto achieving sales of 605 million USD and 980 million USD respectively in 2023 [64][65] - The α-emitter radiopharmaceuticals, such as 225Ac and 212Pb, are emerging as promising therapeutic options due to their higher energy and shorter range compared to β-emitters [48][49] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 2.934 billion yuan in 2024, with nuclear medicine business contributing 1.151 billion yuan and maintaining a gross margin of 74% [125] - API business revenue is projected to be 1.165 billion yuan in 2024, while formulation business is expected to reach 401 million yuan [125] - Dongcheng's EPS is forecasted to be 0.37, 0.45 and 0.55 yuan/share for 2024-2026, with a target price of 16.60 yuan based on 45x 2024 PE [132]