XCMG(000425) 民生证券·2024-06-02 02:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with projected net profits of 6.497 billion, 8.180 billion, and 10.649 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to P/E ratios of 13x, 10x, and 8x respectively [2][3] Core Views - The domestic construction machinery industry is expected to bottom out in 2024, driven by infrastructure investment and equipment renewal policies [1][2] - The company's emerging businesses, including aerial work platforms and mining machinery, are progressing smoothly, contributing to incremental revenue [1][2] - Overseas revenue continues to grow, accounting for 40.09% of total revenue in 2023, with significant room for further expansion [1][2] Global Construction Machinery Market - The global construction machinery market reached 871.09 billion yuan in 2022, with China accounting for 13.2% of global sales [8][9] - Excavators represent nearly 30% of the total market value in the construction machinery sector [11] - Infrastructure (45%), real estate (20%), and mining (20%) are the primary downstream sectors for construction machinery [1][13] Domestic Market Outlook - Infrastructure investment is expected to grow by 8% in 2024, supported by 1 trillion yuan in special government bonds [1][38] - Natural equipment renewal demand is at a bottom, with excavator scrappage expected to be 128,500 units in 2024 and 139,100 units in 2027 [1][48] - Equipment renewal policies are expected to drive the replacement of outdated "National I" and "National II" models, potentially generating demand for 97,000 excavators, 91,000 loaders, 189,000 forklifts, and 9,000 rollers [1][55] Company Performance and Market Position - The company's global market share increased from 3.7% in 2016 to 5.8% in 2022, ranking third globally [15][16] - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 92.848 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 23.66% year-on-year to 5.326 billion yuan [22][23] - The company's aerial work platform business ranked third globally in 2023, with revenue of 8.883 billion yuan, a 35.62% year-on-year increase [57][60] - Mining machinery revenue reached 4.236 billion yuan in 2023, a 14.18% year-on-year increase, with the business ranking fifth globally [62][64] Overseas Expansion - Overseas revenue reached 37.220 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 40.09% of total revenue, a 33.71% year-on-year increase [1][66] - The company has established a global network covering 193 countries and regions, with 39 overseas subsidiaries and 330 overseas distributors [66][67] - Excavator exports increased from 26,600 units in 2019 to 105,000 units in 2023, with export share rising from 11.28% to 53.86% [65][66]