Hengrui Pharma(600276) 海通证券·2024-06-03 05:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights the company's performance stability and continuous growth in innovative drug revenue, with a significant milestone achieved through the licensing agreement with Hercules for three GLP-1 products, which includes an upfront payment of 2 billion [4][5] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 57.98 billion, 68.26 billion, and 79.55 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 34.8%, 17.7%, and 16.5% respectively [4][5] Financial Summary - The total revenue for the company is expected to grow from 22.82 billion yuan in 2023 to 32.32 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.8% [5][6] - The gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 85% from 2024 to 2026, indicating strong operational efficiency [6][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.67 yuan in 2023 to 1.25 yuan in 2026, reflecting the company's profitability growth [5][9] Business Segmentation - The innovative drug business is expected to account for 50% of total revenue by 2024, increasing to 66% by 2026, showcasing the company's strategic focus on high-growth areas [6][9] - The oncology segment is projected to generate revenue of 141.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 16% [6][9] Valuation - The report applies a PEG valuation method, assigning a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 46-58 times for 2024, leading to a reasonable value range of 42.00 to 52.50 yuan per share [4][5]