固德威：欧洲光储领先厂商，海外去库拐点已至

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 106.30 CNY per share, based on a 22x PE valuation for 2024 [2][4] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the PV inverter and energy storage market, with a strong focus on overseas markets, particularly Europe [2] - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 7.353 billion CNY, a 56.10% YoY increase, and net profit of 852 million CNY, up 31.24% YoY [2] - Europe is the largest market, contributing 3.344 billion CNY in revenue from inverters and energy storage batteries, with a gross margin of 45.42% [2] - The company has a diversified product portfolio, including grid-tied inverters, energy storage inverters, residential systems, and energy storage batteries [2] Business Performance and Market Position - The company's inverter inventory is nearing the end of destocking, with exports to Europe in April 2024 reaching 295 million USD, down 49.94% YoY but up 23.07% MoM [2] - The company has launched new products, including the UT series 320kW grid-tied inverter and the GT series 100-125kW inverter, targeting ground power stations and commercial/industrial applications [2] - As of May 2024, the company's products have been installed in over 71.2GW globally, covering more than 100 countries and regions [2] - In 2023, Europe's new residential energy storage installations reached 9.5GWh, a 60% YoY increase, accounting for 59.01% of the global market [2] Product Development and Innovation - The company has introduced new energy storage products, including the EAC series 60kWh and BAC series 100-372kWh outdoor integrated cabinets for commercial and industrial applications [2] - In 2023, global energy storage battery shipments reached 185GWh, a 53% YoY increase, with Europe's shipments growing 156% YoY to 23GWh [2] - The company has a strong R&D team, with 1,023 R&D personnel and 426 authorized intellectual property rights as of December 2023 [49] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 9.53 billion CNY in 2024 to 15.477 billion CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 29.6% [3] - Net profit is projected to increase from 835 million CNY in 2024 to 1.238 billion CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.4% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 4.83 CNY in 2024 to 7.16 CNY in 2026 [3] Market Trends and Opportunities - The global energy storage market is expected to grow significantly, with Europe, the Middle East, and Africa showing the fastest growth rates [28] - The commercial and industrial energy storage sector is entering a high-growth phase, with global installations expected to increase by 128% in 2024 [28] - The European market, driven by policies like the EPBD, is expected to see continued growth in rooftop solar installations, which will further boost demand for residential energy storage [38][39]