YUEXIU PROPERTY(00123) 广发证券·2024-06-06 06:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yuexiu Property [4][12]. Core Views - Guangzhou Assets plans to increase its stake in Yuexiu Property by up to 2%, with a total investment not exceeding 556.5 million RMB, which is approximately 369 million RMB based on recent stock prices [2][3]. - The acquisition aims to strengthen shareholder relations and explore a "bad asset + real estate" business model, leveraging the strategic investment to enhance cooperation [2][3]. - Yuexiu Property has shown resilience, being the only company in the top 30 to maintain positive sales growth since the market downturn in 2021, supported by strong land reserves and favorable policies [2][3]. - Profit forecasts indicate a net profit of 3.5 billion RMB in 2024 and 4 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10% and 14% respectively, with a reasonable valuation target of 9.12 HKD per share [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 80.22 billion RMB in 2023 to 93.56 billion RMB in 2024, representing an 11% increase [3][9]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 3.18 billion RMB, with a forecasted increase to 3.50 billion RMB in 2024, indicating a 10% growth [3][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.79 RMB in 2023 to 0.87 RMB in 2024 [3][9]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 6.5x in 2024 and 5.7x in 2025, suggesting a favorable valuation [3][9].