YANKUANG ENERGY(600188) 广发证券·2024-06-12 01:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A shares and H shares of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company [2]. Core Views - To improve the company's capital structure and implement strategic reserve funding, the company plans to issue 285 million H shares at a price of HKD 17.39 per share, which represents 10% of the total issued H shares and 3.83% of the total issued shares [1][2]. - The total share capital is expected to increase by 35% by the end of 2023, with a proposed stock dividend of 3 shares for every 10 shares held and a cash dividend of CNY 14.90 per 10 shares for the fiscal year 2023 [1]. - The company's mid-term performance improvement is attributed to the recovery of domestic and international coal markets, increased production from major mines, and effective cost control [1]. - The company has a strong growth outlook with significant coal production increases in regions such as Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Mongolia, and Australia [1]. - The cash dividend payout ratio is projected to be around 60% of the net profit after statutory reserves for the years 2023-2025, with a minimum cash dividend of CNY 0.50 per share [1]. - The estimated EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be CNY 2.49, CNY 2.72, and CNY 2.90 respectively, with a reasonable value of CNY 24.91 per A share and HKD 18.37 per H share [1]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is expected to be CNY 150.025 billion, a decrease of 33.3% from 2022, with a projected EBITDA of CNY 53.257 billion [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is forecasted to be CNY 20.140 billion, down 34.6% from the previous year [4]. - The company’s P/E ratio for 2024 is estimated at 9.50, with a projected ROE of 20.9% [4]. - The total assets are expected to be CNY 372.866 billion by the end of 2024, with total liabilities of CNY 232.589 billion [5].