中国石油：ROE系统性提升来自哪里？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The report highlights a systematic improvement in the company's Return on Equity (ROE), which averaged 11.7% from 2022 to Q1 2024, slightly exceeding the 11.5% average from 2011 to 2014, despite lower average oil prices [1][14]. - Key drivers for the ROE improvement include policy benefits from natural gas market reforms, the restructuring of refining value through ethane cracking, and cost reduction measures [39][37][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Natural Gas Market Reform - The natural gas market reform initiated in 2019 has led to a significant price increase, from 1.37 CNY per cubic meter in 2018 to 2.08 CNY per cubic meter in 2023 [37][48]. - The establishment of a national pipeline network and the removal of natural gas from the central pricing directory have facilitated this marketization [16][34]. 2. Ethane Cracking - The company has enhanced its refining value through ethane cracking, with current ethylene production capacity from ethane cracking at 1.4 million tons, expected to rise to 29% of the company's total ethylene capacity after full production [17][36]. - This process not only increases the value of ethane as a feedstock but also extends the industrial chain to produce high-value products like polyolefins [18][25]. 3. Cost Reduction - Over the past decade, the company has reduced its operational costs significantly, with total expenses decreasing by 29.3 billion CNY from 2014 to 2023, primarily due to lower management costs [2][39]. - The operational cost per barrel has decreased from 13.76 USD in 2014 to 11.95 USD in 2023, reflecting a cumulative reduction despite inflation [19][39]. 4. Profit Forecast - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 170.3 billion CNY, 179.3 billion CNY, and 190.1 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10.75, 10.21, and 9.63 for A-shares [2][27]. - The expected dividend yield for A-shares in 2024 is projected at 4.7%, while for H-shares, it is 6.0% [2][27].