招商银行：内生增长穿越红利时代

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on China Merchants Bank (CMB), highlighting its strong endogenous growth and competitive advantages in the banking sector [2][17] Core Views - CMB's high ROA is driven by its low-cost liability structure and strong non-interest income, particularly from wealth management services [2][18] - The bank's retail business benefits from a significant AUM of 14 trillion yuan, with personal demand deposits significantly higher than industry peers [2] - CMB's fee income advantage stems from its leading position in wealth management, contributing to a higher proportion of fee income compared to peers [2][18] Endogenous Growth Analysis - CMB's high net interest margin (NIM) is primarily supported by its low-cost liabilities rather than high-yielding assets [18] - The bank's retail strategy and long-term investment in fintech have resulted in higher business management fees, but its asset quality remains excellent [18] - CMB's ROE ranks second in the industry, supported by high capital adequacy and low leverage [18] Retail Business Strengths - CMB's retail loan portfolio is dominated by personal housing loans, which have been a core growth driver [20] - The bank's retail AUM growth has slowed due to macroeconomic pressures, but high-net-worth customer growth remains strong [24] - CMB's retail customer base is sticky, with a strong brand and service quality that is difficult for competitors to replicate [40] Corporate Business Advantages - CMB's corporate business contributes significantly to demand deposits, with a leading number of corporate clients among joint-stock banks [26] - The bank's product system, including salary payment services and transaction banking, is considered a benchmark in the industry [26] Asset Quality and Risk Management - CMB's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.92% in Q1 2024, the lowest among joint-stock banks [57] - The bank's real estate-related risks have peaked, with NPLs in the real estate sector starting to decline in Q3 2023 [41] - CMB's credit card business, while sensitive to economic fluctuations, has historically maintained a lower NPL ratio compared to peers [55] Profit Forecast and Valuation - CMB's net profit is expected to grow modestly, with a projected ROE of 14.5% in 2024 [66] - The bank's valuation is expected to benefit from a re-rating of high-dividend stocks, with significant room for valuation recovery [64] - CMB's dividend payout ratio could potentially increase to 45% or 50% without impacting its capital adequacy [70]