证券研究报告 新东方 (9901 HK/EDU US) 低基数下利润有望持续释放 华泰研究 中报点评 2026 年 1 月 29 日│中国香港/美国 K12 教育 优化组织架构，有望助力运营提效 据业绩会，公司计划在 2026 财年结束前（即 2026 年 5 月底前），将其留 学咨询和留学考培业务正式合并。我们认为在出国留学行业进入存量竞争的 大背景下，合并两大板块有望精简服务链条，强化规模效应，提升运营效率， 同时通过合并管理团队、教师、营销及行政人员等降低成本。 维持"买入"评级 考虑到 K12 收入提速、降本增效及汇率顺风的影响，我们略微上调 FY26/27/28 non-GAAP 归母净利润至 5.78/6.81/7.56 亿美元（前值： 5.62/6.48/7.07 亿美元）。可比公司彭博一致预期均值 15.47x FY26 PE， 考虑到公司核心业务盈利稳健性及股东回报行业领先，给予公司 18x FY26 PE，得到目标价 65.43 美元/51.39 港元（前值：67.31 美元/52.66 港元，基 于集团整体 non-GAAP 归母净利润 19.06x FY26 PE），维持"买入"。 风 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strategic significance to the acquisition of approximately 29.06% of PUMA SE, with a target price of €35 per share, representing a 61.6% premium over the closing price prior to the announcement [2]. Core Insights - The acquisition is valued at approximately €1.505 billion (around 12.278 billion RMB), positioning the reporting company as PUMA's largest single shareholder [2]. - The company views PUMA's long-term brand value and market position, particularly in football and running, as underappreciated in its current stock price, providing a favorable long-term investment opportunity [2]. - The revenue contribution of PUMA from the Chinese market is only about 7%, indicating significant growth potential, with plans to leverage the company's successful "brand + retail" model to enhance PUMA's performance in China [2]. - The acquisition is a critical step in the company's "single focus, multi-brand, globalization" strategy, enhancing its global presence through PUMA's strong influence in Europe, North America, and Africa [2]. Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, expecting net profits for the fiscal years 2025-2027 to be 13.197 billion, 14.129 billion, and 15.417 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.65X, 13.68X, and 12.54X [3]. - Revenue projections for the fiscal years 2025-2028 are estimated at 70.826 billion, 78.263 billion, 85.306 billion, and 92.557 billion HKD, with year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 11%, 9%, and 9% [4]. - The company's diluted EPS is projected to be 4.72, 5.05, and 5.51 HKD for the fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4].

证券研究报告·海外公司研究简报·专业零售(HS) 周大福（01929.HK） 黄金珠宝百年龙头品牌，战略转型+产品升级 开启成长新篇章 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 108,713 | 89,656 | 94,265 | 99,234 | 105,213 | | 同比(%) | 14.82 | (17.53) | 5.14 | 5.27 | 6.03 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 6,499 | 5,916 | 8,873 | 9,958 | 11,058 | | 同比(%) | 20.71 | (8.98) | 50.00 | 12.23 | 11.04 | | EPS-最新摊薄（港元/股） | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.90 | 1.01 | 1.12 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 20.43 | 22.44 | 14.96 | 13.33 | 12 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司研究简报·专业零售(HS) [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2026 年 01 月 29 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 周大福（01929.HK） 黄金珠宝百年龙头品牌，战略转型+产品升级 开启成长新篇章 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 108,713 | 89,656 | 94,265 | 99,234 | 105,213 | | 同比(%) | 14.82 | (17.53) | 5.14 | 5.27 | 6.03 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 6,499 | 5,916 | 8,873 | 9,958 | 11,058 | | 同比(%) | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook is a leading brand in the gold and jewelry industry with a rich history, established in 1929 and listed in Hong Kong in 2011. The company is the largest gold jewelry brand in China, with a total of 5,813 stores as of the end of FY26Q3 [7][8]. - The company has shown significant improvement in overall performance, with a retail revenue growth of 18% year-on-year in FY26Q3, driven by strong sales in mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau [14][18]. - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on product upgrades and enhancing brand value, which has led to a notable increase in the proportion of fixed-price products in sales [9][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company achieved total revenue of HKD 89.66 billion and a net profit of HKD 5.92 billion, with projections for FY2026-2028 showing revenue growth of 5.14%, 5.27%, and 6.03% respectively [1][24]. - The gross profit margin has been steadily increasing, reaching 30.5% in FY26H1, while the net profit margin remains stable at around 6.5% [20][24]. Store Operations - The company is in a store closure cycle, having reduced its total number of stores by 228 in FY26Q3, while still maintaining strong same-store sales growth, particularly in mainland China [7][18]. - The same-store sales growth in mainland China for FY26Q1, Q2, and Q3 were -3.3%, +7.6%, and +21.4% respectively, indicating a positive trend [18]. Product Strategy - The proportion of fixed-price products has significantly increased, with retail value growth of 59.6% year-on-year for these products in FY26Q3, contributing to 40.1% of total sales [9][24]. - The company is focusing on high-end positioning by closing underperforming stores in lower-tier markets and opening new concept stores in higher-tier cities [14][24].

公司研究 FY26Q2 业绩超预期增长，全年收入指引上调彰显信心 ——新东方-S（9901.HK）FY26Q2 业绩点评 买入（上调） 当前价：44.70 港元 2026 年 1 月 29 日 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 15.80 | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 706.39 | | 一年最低/最高(港元)： | 30.85/47.31 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 14.06% | 股价相对走势 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 25/1 25/2 25/3 25/4 25/5 25/6 25/7 25/8 25/9 25/10 25/11 25/12 26 ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|公用事业Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发 环 保 & 海 外 】 粤 海 投 资 （00270.HK） 预告 25 年归母净利润同比增长 43%，股息价值突出 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 备注：除非特别说明，否则报告货币为港元 | 盈利预测： | | --- | | [Table_ 单位Finance] :港元百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | 20,322 | 18,505 | 18,528 | 18,667 | 18,769 | | 增长率（ % ） | -12.4% | -8.9% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | | EBITDA | 9,920 | 9,909 | 10,272 | 10,309 | 10,326 | | 归母净利润 | 4,370 | 4,297 | 4,493 | 4,638 | 4,770 | | 增长率（ % ） | -8.3% | -1.7% ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][88]. Core Insights - The leisure food and beverage industry in China is experiencing rapid expansion, with a projected GMV growth from 2.9 trillion yuan to 3.7 trillion yuan from 2019 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 5.5% [3][10]. - The company, "鸣鸣很忙," is positioned as the leading group in the mass retail sector, with revenue expected to exceed 39.3 billion yuan by 2024, showcasing strong growth potential [3][29]. - The company is exploring international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the snack market is diversifying and showing significant growth [3][64]. Summary by Sections Industry Expansion - The leisure food and beverage sector is projected to grow significantly, with the down-market segment being a key driver, increasing from 1.7 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan (CAGR 6.5%) [3][10]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards specialized retail channels, with the growth of specialty stores and e-commerce, reflecting changing consumer preferences [10][11]. Company Overview - "鸣鸣很忙" is consolidating its position as the first mass retail group through brand mergers, with a revenue forecast of 39.3 billion yuan by 2024 [3][29]. - The company has achieved a significant increase in store count, reaching 19,517 stores by the third quarter of 2025, with a focus on lower-tier cities [3][41]. Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 63.06 billion yuan in 2025 to 89.93 billion yuan in 2027, with adjusted net profit projected to rise from 2.52 billion yuan to 4.68 billion yuan during the same period [3][88]. - The company is expected to achieve a stable gross margin of 9.73% by 2025, driven by operational efficiencies and a digital marketing strategy [3][29]. International Expansion - The Southeast Asian snack market is projected to reach 12.3 billion USD by 2024, with a notable demand for health-oriented snacks [3][64]. - The company is leveraging its supply chain advantages to penetrate markets in Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam, where local consumer preferences are evolving [3][67].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Zai Lab with a target price of HKD 35.25, indicating an expected return exceeding the market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [2][19]. Core Insights - Zai Lab is projected to achieve product net revenue of USD 465 million in FY25, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.5%. The core product, efgartigimod, is expected to generate USD 97.96 million, with a gross profit margin of 61.0% [3][16]. - The management emphasizes a dual-engine strategy focusing on introducing high-quality overseas products for commercialization in China and leveraging a cross-border R&D platform for efficient global market development [4][17]. - Despite a downward revision in revenue guidance for 2025 and a delay in profitability targets, the company has a robust portfolio with eight products approved in China and several differentiated global assets in its pipeline [4][17]. Financial Performance - Revenue forecasts for FY25-FY27 have been adjusted to USD 465 million, USD 501 million, and USD 717 million, respectively. Net loss estimates for the same period are revised to USD 180 million, USD 159 million, and USD 55 million [10][19]. - R&D expenses are expected to be USD 205 million, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, while SG&A expenses are projected at USD 284 million, down 5.0% [3][16]. Clinical Development Pipeline - Zocilurtatug (DLL3 ADC) is set to initiate three registrational clinical trials by the end of 2026, targeting small cell lung cancer and neuroendocrine carcinoma [5][21]. - Several early-stage products, including ZL-1503 for atopic dermatitis and ZL-6201 for various solid tumors, are anticipated to contribute to long-term global value [6][9][21].

上 市 公 司 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 01 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 22.10 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9512.24 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 53.70/10.12 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 232.89 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,053.81 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8943 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 2026 年 01 月 29 日 东方甄选 (01797) ——产品组合优化，经营效益大幅提升 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 社会服务 -37% 63% 163% 263% 01/28 02/28 03/31 04/30 05/31 06/30 07/31 08/31 09/30 10/31 11/30 12/31 HSCEI 东方甄选 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 - 证券分析师 黄哲 A0230513030001 huangzhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 投资要点： 东方甄选 1HFY26（2025 年 ...