Report Summary 1. Market Focus - The article "Speech at the Central Urban Work Conference" by General Secretary Xi Jinping was published in the "Qiushi" Journal, emphasizing urban renewal [6]. - The central bank introduced a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including interest rate cuts, increasing loan quotas, and adjusting mortgage down - payment ratios [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 18th symposium for manufacturing enterprises, stressing participation in industry rule - making and self - discipline [6]. - In December 2025, the US CPI and core CPI were stable year - on - year, and the PPI increased [6]. 2. Key Data - In early January 2026, key steel enterprises produced 1997 million tons of crude steel, with a daily average of 199.7 million tons, a 21.6% increase. Steel inventories reached 1504 million tons, a 6.4% increase [6]. - In 2025, China's foreign trade reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase, with exports at 26.99 trillion yuan, a 6.1% increase [6]. 3. Main Views - Steel prices oscillated at the upper edge of the price range. Macro sentiment was positive, but the impact on the black market was limited. The supply - demand pattern was healthy but lacked upward momentum. The upside space for steel prices was limited [6][58]. - Iron ore prices oscillated at a high level, supported by the macro environment and steel mill restocking. The downward driving force was weak, and it was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6][60]. Multi - empty Focus 1. Multi - empty Factors Analysis (Rebar) - **Bullish factors**: Overseas and domestic loose liquidity, expected credit boom, strong steel exports, and cost support [9]. - **Bearish factors**: Off - season demand, increased steel production, and uncertain impact of export licenses [9]. 2. Multi - empty Factors Analysis (Iron Ore) - **Bullish factors**: Overseas and domestic loose liquidity, expected credit boom, slow steel production recovery, low steel mill inventories, and restocking demand [10]. - **Bearish factors**: Off - season steel demand, increased shipments, and high port inventories [10]. Data Analysis 1. Macro - **US employment and inflation**: In December 2025, the US labor market was in a weak balance, and inflation was mild. The market was worried about inflation in 2026, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was unclear [11][12]. - **China's social financing and credit**: In December 2025, China's new social financing decreased year - on - year, and the growth rate of the stock slowed. The market expected a credit boom in 2026, but the growth rate might slow in the first half of the year [14][15]. - **Policy**: The central bank introduced a series of policies to support high - quality economic development, with an emphasis on structural loosening. The direct impact on asset prices was limited, and the key was the implementation [17][18]. 2. Terminal - **Automobile industry**: In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached a record high. New energy vehicles became the dominant force. In 2026, the total sales were expected to reach 3475 million vehicles, a 1% increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy [21]. - **Engineering machinery industry**: In 2025, the engineering machinery industry recovered significantly, with excavator sales reaching a five - year high. China's shipbuilding industry maintained growth [25]. - **Exports**: In 2025, China's exports showed good resilience. Steel exports reached a record high, but there might be a decline in January 2026 [26][27]. 3. (Rebar) Spot - The spot price was stable, and the basis continued to narrow [29]. 4. Profit - The steel mill profitability rate increased by 2.17 percentage points to 39.83%. Steel mill losses decreased [33]. 5. Production - The blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 78.84%, and the electric furnace operating rate remained unchanged. Steel production continued to rise but at a mild pace [34][36]. 6. Apparent Demand - The apparent demand for steel improved but still showed off - season characteristics [38]. 7. Inventory - Rebar inventory decreased slightly, and hot - rolled coil inventory was at a high level. Different regions had different winter - storage policies [42]. 8. (Iron Ore) Spot - The spot price declined, and the basis fluctuated narrowly [43]. 9. Import and Shipment - In December 2025, China's iron ore imports increased. At the beginning of 2026, iron ore shipments decreased [47]. 10. Arrival - From January 5th to 11th, 2026, the arrival of iron ore at Chinese ports increased [48]. 11. Hot Metal Production - The daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.49 million tons [50]. 12. Port Inventory - The port inventory of imported iron ore increased, and the daily dredging volume decreased [54]. 13. Steel Mill Consumption and Inventory - The daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills decreased, and the inventory increased [56]. Market Outlook 1. Steel - Steel prices will continue to operate within a range, with limited upward space. Attention should be paid to the impact of export licenses and inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival [58]. 2. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, with limited downward space [60].

Economic Overview - China's economy maintained a stable operation in the first half of the year, achieving a growth rate of 5.3% [1] - The macroeconomic outlook for the second half of the year is under close scrutiny, with expectations for continued support from macro policies [1] Industrial Growth - The average forecast for July's industrial added value year-on-year growth is 6.0%, despite expected slowdowns due to seasonal factors and external pressures [2] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.3%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1% [2] - Despite challenges, external demand remains resilient, supporting production activities [2] Consumer Spending - The average forecast for July's retail sales year-on-year growth is 4.9%, slightly above the previous month's figure [3] - The "trade-in" policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 3 trillion yuan in sales generated since its implementation [3] - High-frequency data indicates a strong performance in certain sectors, such as passenger vehicle retail and major home appliances [3] Automotive Industry - In July, China's automotive production and sales reached 2.591 million units and 2.593 million units, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 14.7% [4] - The automotive market is experiencing a seasonal slowdown, but the "trade-in" policy continues to have a positive impact [4] Infrastructure Investment - The average forecast for July's fixed asset investment year-on-year growth is 2.8%, remaining stable compared to the previous month [5] - Infrastructure investment is supported by government policies and ongoing projects, despite some slowdowns due to adverse weather conditions [5] - Sales of excavators in July increased by 25.2% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the engineering machinery sector [5][6] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market is facing challenges, with significant declines in new housing transaction volumes in major cities [6] - The construction sector is expected to see a continued slowdown, influenced by falling cement prices and adverse weather [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests treating the situation with a strategy of trying short positions on rebounds [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents Industry News - The China Iron and Steel Association issued an article on the 9th, calling on the steel and automobile industries to work together to break through "involution" and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the industrial chain through technological innovation [3]. - From June 2nd to June 8th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.2967 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 26.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.5%; the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 1.8519 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 11.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% [3]. - In May, the China Construction Machinery Industry Association reported that 18,202 excavators of various types were sold, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. Among them, domestic sales were 8,392 units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.48%, and exports were 9,810 units, a year - on - year increase of 5.42% [3]. Market Performance and Strategy - The finished products continued to consolidate yesterday with little overall fluctuation, showing narrow - range fluctuations with small K - lines in the past three trading days [3]. - Currently in the off - season of demand, there is little chance of effective improvement in downstream demand in the short term, and there is still room for further decline. Based on the current situation, it is recommended to try short positions on rebounds [3].