今日早参 2026 年 2 月 26 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 陈慎 房地产行业首席研究员 座机：021 38476038 邮箱：chenshen@htsc.com 今日热点 风险提示：房地产政策波动，房地产市场复苏不及预期，部分房企经营风 险。 研报发布日期：2026-02-25 研究员 刘璐 SAC:S0570519070001 SFC:BRD825 固定收益：AI 叙事的转变 ——基本面观察 2 月第 2 期 2026 年以来，全球 AI 叙事正在经历一次重要的边际变化，我们至少看到了 三层叙事的转变。 第一层叙事：对 Scaling Law 开始出现一些分歧。 过去几年 AI 投资的核心引擎来自于 Scaling Law 的经验规律：模型越大、数 据越多、算力越强，性能越好。但这条规律正在出现一些裂痕。 风险提示：AI 开支不及预期，地缘政治风险。 研报发布日期：2026-02-25 研究员 张继强 SAC:S0570518110002 SFC:AMB145 吴靖 SAC:S0570523070006 房地产 ...

联电指出，本案交付或付款条件依订单条件付款，交易决定方式为议价，价格决定之参考依据为市场行 情，决策单位则由公司采购核定会决定；取得设备之具体目的或用途为供生产及研发使用。 联电（2303）25日公告向ASML购买机器设备，交易总金额约新台币15.79亿元（下同）。联电说明， 本案交易单位数量为一批，每单位平均价格1,578,719,526元，总金额同为1,578,719,526元；交易相对人 为ASML SINGAPORE PTE. LTD.，属非关系人。 ...

联电（2303）今(25)日举行董事会，决议通过高阶主管人事异动，现任共同总经理王石将升任联电执行长，执行副总经理徐明志则获任命为 总经理暨营运长，并成为董事会成员。现任共同总经理简山杰已获选为集团转投资公司欣兴电子董事长。 联电董事长洪嘉聪表示，这次的人事调整，是为了因应快速变化的产业环境与市场机会，联电持续调整组织架构。他说："这项调整旨在进 一步强化执行力、提升决策效率，同时维持策略的延续性。"洪嘉聪也特别感谢简山杰多年来的领导表达最深的感谢，协助联电度过许多重 大机会与挑战。 联电表示，这项人事异动是为落实公司高阶经理人接班规划，并确保公司持续具备竞争力。 联电于2017年跟进台积电采用双首长制，任命简山杰与王石为共同总经理，两人带领公司进行策略转型，专注于高成长市场的特殊制程技 术。在他们的领导下，联电的获利能力大幅提升，并成为客户信赖的晶圆代工伙伴，公司市值在其任内成长约五倍。 新任徐明志总经理暨营运长，2003年加入联电美国子公司，目前是公司高阶管理团队的核心成员，负责规划联电全球多元据点的营运，并 统筹企业行销、客户工程及业务策略。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of various sectors in the A-share market, indicating a mixed trend with certain industries like battery and communication resources leading the gains while others like tourism and media lag behind [6][9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic data and policy changes in shaping market expectations and investment strategies [8][12][20] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,147.23 with a gain of 0.72%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,475.87 with a gain of 1.29% [4] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.93 and 53.12 respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [8][12] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced declines of 0.67% and 0.45% respectively, reflecting a cautious global market sentiment [5] Industry Analysis - The aerospace and media sectors are noted for their strong performance, while the film industry faced a disappointing Spring Festival box office, with total revenue down 40.09% year-on-year [14][15] - The automotive industry is projected to benefit from policies promoting vehicle upgrades, with a target of replacing 500,000 vehicles by the end of 2026 [6][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as electric batteries, communication devices, and aerospace for short-term investment opportunities due to their current market strength [12][20] - In the automotive sector, the report recommends monitoring companies involved in intelligent driving and robotics, as these areas are expected to see significant growth [20][28] Key Data Updates - The report notes that the automotive industry saw stable production and sales figures in January 2026, with a total of 245,000 vehicles produced and 234,700 sold [18] - The battery sector reported a 3.31% increase in the index, with a total of 94,500 electric vehicles sold in January, indicating a slight year-on-year increase [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor industry [1] Core Insights - The storage supercycle remains a key theme for the semiconductor industry in 2026, driven by strong demand and limited supply [20][21] - Major technology companies are increasing their capital expenditure (Capex) forecasts, which supports the positive outlook for the storage market [22] - The report highlights the importance of advanced packaging and the potential for new technologies like CPO (Chiplet Packaging Optimization) to enhance system performance [15][14] Summary by Sections Storage Market - The storage market is entering a seller's market characterized by rising prices and demand, with DRAM ASPs increasing approximately 40% for Samsung and 20% for SK Hynix in Q4 2025 [4][20] - The report anticipates that DRAM prices will continue to rise in Q1 2026, with a forecasted increase of 90-95% for conventional DRAM [25] - Supply constraints are expected to persist, with capital expenditures focused on HBM and advanced processes rather than broad capacity expansion [21][4] Advanced Packaging - Advanced packaging is becoming a critical area of focus, with companies like Intel and Samsung investing in 2.5D/3D packaging technologies [14] - The demand for advanced packaging is expected to grow as cloud service providers increase their capital expenditures and accelerate in-house chip development [15] CPO (Chiplet Packaging Optimization) - CPO is projected to gain traction, with NVIDIA showcasing its CPO solutions that significantly enhance system-level efficiency [15] - The report notes that CPO applications are expected to transition from scale-out to scale-up, improving bandwidth density and energy efficiency [15] Capital Expenditure Trends - North American tech giants are significantly increasing their Capex forecasts for 2026, with estimates reaching approximately $655 billion, a 60% year-over-year increase [22] - This increase in Capex is expected to support ongoing demand for high-performance storage solutions and AI applications [22][24]

经济观察网 基于公开信息，联电（UMC.N）股票近期有以下值得关注的事件： 近期事件 短期业绩指引：公司预计2026年第一季度产能利用率可能回落至70%中段区间，毛利率或降至20%高位 区间，需关注行业需求复苏及台积电订单转移实际进度对短期业绩的影响。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 订单转移预期：联电有望承接台积电成熟制程订单转移，瑞银测算这可能对应营收增长约19%，成为未 来增长动力。 公司项目推进 新产能扩张：新加坡Fab12i P3工厂计划于2026年下半年大规模爬坡，预计新增3万片/月高毛利产能，可 能提升公司长期竞争力。 业务与技术发展 技术布局进展：硅光与先进封装技术被视作中长期增长点，市场关注其产业化进度对盈利的潜在贡献。 业绩经营情况 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong Semiconductor with a target price of HKD 121, slightly up from the previous target of HKD 120 [6]. Core Insights - Huahong Semiconductor's 4Q25 revenue reached USD 659.9 million, a year-on-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.9%, aligning with the company's guidance [13][22]. - The gross margin for the quarter was 13.0%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, consistent with prior guidance [13][22]. - The company expects 1Q26 revenue to remain between USD 650 million and USD 660 million, with a gross margin guidance of 13%-15% [18][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 4Q25, revenue was USD 659.9 million, reflecting a 22.4% year-on-year growth and a 3.9% quarter-on-quarter growth, reaching the upper end of the company's guidance [13][22]. - The gross margin was reported at 13.0%, which is a 1.6 percentage point increase year-on-year and aligns with the company's previous guidance of 12%-14% [13][22]. Growth Drivers - The demand for analog and power management products, particularly driven by AI, has significantly boosted revenue, with related income in 4Q25 reaching USD 173.8 million, a substantial year-on-year increase of 40.7% [2][18]. - Huahong's competitive edge in specialty processes, particularly in BCD and power devices, positions it well to capitalize on the tightening supply-demand dynamics in the semiconductor market [2][3]. Capacity Expansion - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with the first phase of the Wuxi Fab 9 construction exceeding expectations and entering a rapid ramp-up phase [3][19]. - The acquisition of the Shanghai Fab 5 is progressing, which is expected to add approximately 40,000 wafers of monthly capacity, enhancing the company's operational scale and profitability [3][19]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted downwards by 4% and 5%, respectively, but the company anticipates a revenue growth of 24% in 2026, 16% in 2027, and 10% in 2028, reaching USD 2.99 billion, USD 3.47 billion, and USD 3.82 billion [15][4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly, with projections of 100% growth in 2026, followed by 30% and 35% in the subsequent years, reaching USD 110 million, USD 143 million, and USD 193 million [15][4].

Market Overview - On February 13, 2026, a significant asset sell-off occurred in global financial markets, particularly impacting U.S. stock indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 669.42 points (1.34%) to close at 49,451.98, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 469.32 points (2.03%) to 22,597.15. The S&P 500 Index also declined by 108.71 points (1.57%) to 6,832.76 [1]. Commodity Market Impact - The sell-off extended to the commodity markets, with gold and silver experiencing substantial declines. COMEX gold futures fell by 3.08% to $4,941.4 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures plummeted by 10.62% to $75.01 per ounce [2][3]. Technology Sector Reaction - Major technology companies were severely affected, with Apple’s stock price dropping by 5%, resulting in a market value loss of over $120 billion (approximately 800 billion RMB). Other tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Meta, and Nvidia also saw significant declines [3][4]. Chinese Concept Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which includes many Chinese concept stocks, fell by 3% on the same day, indicating a collective sell-off in this sector. Over 40 Chinese concept stocks experienced substantial declines, with Tencent Music down 10.57% and Alibaba down 3.40% [3][4][6]. Employment Data Influence - The catalyst for this market turmoil was a strong U.S. employment report released on February 11, showing a non-farm payroll increase of 130,000 in January, significantly above the expected 70,000. This led to a shift in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with the probability of a March rate cut dropping from 19.6% to 6% [5][6]. Capital Expenditure Concerns - Major tech companies announced aggressive capital expenditure plans for 2026, with Alphabet projecting $175 billion to $185 billion and Amazon estimating $200 billion, both nearly doubling their 2025 expenditures. This raised investor concerns about the return on such investments, especially as many companies reported record profits but saw stock price declines [10][11]. Market Sentiment and Volatility - The market's fear and volatility increased sharply, with the VIX index rising significantly. The sell-off was exacerbated by algorithm-driven trading, which triggered stop-loss orders and led to extreme price movements [15][16][17]. Global Market Impact - The financial turmoil that began in Wall Street quickly spread to global markets, with Asian and European stock markets opening lower in response to the U.S. declines [18].

经济观察网 联电股价在2026年1月28日法说会后出现大幅回调，主要受以下因素影响： 股价异动原因 法说会上，联电共同总经理王石对分析师反复询问的"是否可能涨价"给出了保守回应，强调需"维持定 价策略的一致性"。摩根士丹利随后发布报告指出，对联电难以涨价感到失望，并提到"联电已提高部分 客户的晶圆价格，但同时也需要向部分客户提供折扣"。这一表态直接冲击了市场对联电2026年涨价能 力的预期。 行业状况 Counterpoint报告显示2026年全球智能手机需求预计衰退7%，Yole Group指出笔记本电脑需求将衰退 10%-12%。资策会产业顾问郑凯安分析，AI热潮推升存储器需求导致价格飙涨，挤压了消费性产品获 取存储器的空间，进而冲击成熟制程半导体需求。联电主要聚焦的消费性市场面临终端需求不振的威 胁，使其难以提升平均销售单价。 联电与英特尔在12纳米制程平台的合作最快2027年才能小量试产，新加坡厂的硅光子应用布局也要到 2027年才会提供客户设计工具。这些被市场视为利好的项目均无法在2026年内贡献营收，导致投资者对 短期业绩支撑缺乏信心。 股价与资金表现 值得注意的是，联电在法说会前两周股价劲扬40 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, particularly in the AI and HPC sectors, indicating a strong demand that supports revenue growth [2][5]. Core Insights - TSMC reported a record revenue of NT$401.26 billion in January 2026, a year-on-year increase of 36.8%, driven by strong demand in AI servers, HPC, and cloud data centers [2][5]. - The advanced packaging capacity remains tight, which is a key factor supporting revenue growth [5]. - The report highlights that the AI sector continues to drive demand, with companies like Xinxia and JY Electronics also reporting significant revenue increases [2][5][20]. Summary by Sections AI Sector - TSMC's revenue growth is attributed to the sustained demand for AI servers and advanced process technologies, maintaining high utilization rates [5]. - Xinxia's revenue reached NT$900 million in January 2026, up 28.5% year-on-year, reflecting the strong demand for server management chips [7]. - JY Electronics reported a revenue of NT$3.37 billion, a 41% increase year-on-year, driven by the rising complexity and demand for AI-related testing [8]. Mature Process - UMC, World Advanced, and PSMC reported revenues of NT$20.86 billion, NT$4.01 billion, and NT$4.62 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 18%, and 26% [16]. - PSMC's revenue reached a 39-month high, driven by rising prices in memory wafer foundry and increased demand for logic foundry [16]. Storage - Nanya Technology, Winbond, and Macronix reported revenues of NT$15.31 billion, NT$11.78 billion, and NT$3.02 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 608%, 94%, and 51% [17]. - Nanya indicated that various DRAM products may remain tight due to limited new capacity, particularly DDR4 and LPDDR4 [17]. End-Side Chips - MediaTek's revenue was NT$46.98 billion, down 8% year-on-year, with expectations of a significant decline in mobile terminal demand due to rising costs [18]. - The Smart Edge business is expected to grow, with data center ASIC revenue projected to exceed USD 1 billion in 2026 [20]. Passive Components - Yageo reported a revenue of NT$13.03 billion, a 27% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand from AI-related applications [20].