来源 | 《财经》杂志 作者 | 《财经》记者 凌馨 编辑 | 王小 超跌之后的估值回归，是造就"X倍股"的最大因素 中国医药股领涨全球的2025年，涨幅最高的个股有哪些？ 香港市场，涌现出一批"三倍股""四倍股"，甚至"十倍股"，其中，有因产品海外授权交易声名鹊起的和铂医药、荣昌生物，也有2025年踩中了港股医药热点 的"打新宠儿"，还有一批，是经历了上一轮寒冬后，终于等来投资市场春天的老牌未盈利药企。 北海康成曾是"中国罕见病第一股"。它的产品，都是治疗普通人几乎没听说过的病。已经上市的两款产品，分别用于治疗黏多糖贮积症Ⅱ型、阿拉杰里综合 征以及进行性家族性胆汁淤积症。 因为主要针对罕见病市场，北海康成的产品市场都很小。2021年就在中国市场推出的首款产品，是用于治疗黏多糖贮积症Ⅱ型，至2024年末，共识别出843 名患者。另一款已上市产品，识别患者数为839名。 理论上，罕见病用药单价高，还可以享受药审、医保的各种政策倾斜，实际上，北海康成多年来仍处于亏损状态。2024年，全年收入8510.3万元，亏损金额 4.43亿元。截至2024年末，公司流动性资产4535.2万元，流动性负债4.826亿元。 北海 ...

因购买私募产品导致一周亏损81%的圣元环保还未完全褪去热度，双鹭药业也因理财、炒股爆雷而成为外界关注的新焦点。 从去年三季报的业绩大幅增长到全年业绩的爆雷，这一突如其来的消息打击下，股价于2月2日应声跌停，并在两个交易日内下跌16.43%。 至于爆雷原因，公司公告表示，报告期内，公司非经常性损益合计减少净利润约2亿元，其中确认的理财投资损失与交易性金融资产等产生的公允价值变 动收益是主要影响因素。同时，公司表示，本报告期公司确认的损失包含投资理财损失，相关损失正在挽回中，董事长徐明波自愿承诺补足无法挽回的差 额，并将于一个月内先行上缴公司5000万元。 从表面上看，这是一起再正常不过因投资理财爆雷导致公司亏损的案例。然而，《每日经济新闻》记者梳理并统计相关数据发现，外界普遍认为的交易性 金融资产亏损可能并非双鹭药业2025年预亏的主要原因，相反，公司持有的几只股票甚至还可能为其带来不少利润；大概率爆雷的理财产品在近年的信披 内容有限：不仅没披露产品基本信息，更有50亿元的巨额信托理财产品去向成谜。 2026年1月30日晚，双鹭药业发布2025年度业绩预告，预计归属于上市公司股东的净利润为-29000万元至-2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shuanglu Pharmaceutical, is facing significant financial losses due to investment mismanagement, particularly in wealth management products, leading to a projected net loss of between 290 million to 200 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, marking a year-on-year decline of 170.03% to 291.54% [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Losses - Shuanglu Pharmaceutical's net profit is expected to decline sharply, with a projected loss of 290 million to 200 million yuan, and a non-recurring loss of 70 million to 40 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 148.58% to 185.02% [1][2]. - The company's stock price dropped by 16.43% within two trading days following the announcement of the expected losses [2]. - The primary reason for the losses is attributed to a significant reduction in non-recurring gains, particularly from wealth management investments and fair value changes in financial assets, amounting to a net profit reduction of approximately 200 million yuan [2][4]. Group 2: Investment Management Issues - Despite the losses, the company holds several stocks that have appreciated in value, suggesting that the losses may not stem from these investments but rather from poorly disclosed wealth management products, including a mysterious 5 billion yuan trust product [2][10]. - The company has been criticized for its lack of transparency regarding its wealth management products, particularly high-risk trust products, with limited disclosure on their nature and performance [10][12]. - The company’s investment strategy has shifted towards higher-risk trust products since 2019, with a notable increase in wealth management investments reaching 6 billion yuan by mid-2025 [10][12]. Group 3: Corporate Governance and Actions - The chairman of Shuanglu Pharmaceutical, Xu Mingbo, has voluntarily committed to cover any irrecoverable losses from the wealth management investments, pledging to inject 50 million yuan into the company within a month [2][26]. - The rapid divestment by the company’s secretary following the release of the third-quarter report raises concerns about insider trading and the timing of information disclosure [30][33]. - The company has faced scrutiny over its governance practices, particularly regarding the management of investment risks and the decision-making process for wealth management investments [22][28].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a revenue of no less than RMB 2.5 billion for the year, representing a growth rate of over 30% compared to the same period last year, along with a net profit of no less than RMB 150 million [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The aesthetic medicine segment is expected to achieve revenue exceeding RMB 1.4 billion and a segment profit of over RMB 700 million, with both revenue and profit growth rates exceeding 90% year-on-year, becoming the largest revenue and profit contributor for the company [1] - The innovative drug business is entering a harvest phase, with combined revenue from XuanZhu Bio and HuiSheng Bio significantly increasing compared to the previous year, and the commercialization of new products progressing smoothly, indicating a transition from investment to profitability for this segment [1] Group 2: Financial Health - The company maintains a robust financial position with ample cash reserves, having implemented multiple rounds of share buybacks and successfully completed the spin-off listing of XuanZhu Bio, which has led to significant equity appreciation and alleviated R&D funding pressures, thereby optimizing the company's financial structure and driving profit breakthroughs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates achieving revenue of no less than RMB 2.5 billion and net profit of no less than RMB 150 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, representing a growth rate of over 30% compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The aesthetic medicine business is expected to generate over RMB 1.4 billion in revenue and over RMB 700 million in segment profit, with both metrics showing an annual growth rate exceeding 90%, becoming the primary revenue and profit driver for the company [1] - The innovative drug business is entering a harvest phase, with significant revenue growth from Xuan Zhu Bio and Hui Sheng Bio, and a transition from investment to revenue generation, improving the company's profit structure [1] - The company maintains a robust financial position with ample cash reserves, implementing multiple rounds of share buybacks and successfully spinning off Xuan Zhu Bio, which enhances equity value and alleviates R&D funding pressure [1] Group 2: Aesthetic Medicine Sector - The company has successfully obtained approvals for several self-developed core products, including various injectables and devices, establishing itself as a comprehensive aesthetic medicine enterprise [2] - The market share of the core product, Le Ti Bao botulinum toxin, has increased to nearly 20%, with partnerships exceeding 8,000 medical aesthetic institutions, driving rapid sales growth of newly launched products [2] - The company is advancing its global strategy by signing an investment agreement with Swiss aesthetic company Suisselle, aiming to penetrate the EU market and solidify its long-term growth foundation [2] Group 3: Pharmaceutical R&D Progress - Rapid advancements in pharmaceutical R&D are evident, with Xuan Zhu Bio's ALK inhibitor and CDK4/6 inhibitor receiving market approvals, and Xuan Yue Ning being included in the national medical insurance directory [3] - The company achieved a successful spin-off listing of Xuan Zhu Bio on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, providing significant equity value gains and easing R&D investment pressures [3] - This strategic move supports the company's focus on high-growth sectors like aesthetic medicine, facilitating a transition to a new phase of high-quality development [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects to achieve revenue of no less than RMB 2.5 billion and net profit of no less than RMB 150 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year revenue growth of over 30% [1] Financial Performance Factors - The aesthetic medicine business is projected to achieve revenue exceeding RMB 1.4 billion and segment profit over RMB 700 million, with both revenue and profit growth rates exceeding 90% year-on-year, becoming the largest revenue and profit contributor to the group [2] - The innovative drug business is entering a harvest phase, with significant revenue growth from Xuan Zhu Bio and Hui Sheng Bio, and a transition from investment to revenue generation, improving the group's profit structure [2] - The company maintains a robust financial position with ample cash reserves, implementing multiple rounds of share buybacks and successfully spinning off Xuan Zhu Bio, which enhances equity value and alleviates R&D funding pressure [2] Aesthetic Medicine Segment - The company has successfully obtained approvals for several self-developed core products, including the "Youthful Needle" and "L-Arginine Facial Energy Essence," establishing itself as a comprehensive aesthetic medicine enterprise [3] - The market share of the core product, "Le Ti Bao Botulinum Toxin," has increased to nearly 20%, with partnerships exceeding 8,000 medical aesthetic institutions, driving rapid sales growth of newly launched products [3] - The company is accelerating its global expansion, having signed an investment subscription agreement with Swiss aesthetic company Suisselle, aiming to penetrate the EU market and establish a sustainable growth foundation [3] Pharmaceutical R&D Progress - Rapid advancements in R&D are noted, with Xuan Zhu Bio and Hui Sheng Bio achieving significant milestones, including the approval of ALK inhibitor Xuan Fei Ning and CDK4/6 inhibitor Xuan Yue Ning, with the latter included in the national medical insurance directory [4] - The successful spin-off of Xuan Zhu Bio on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has provided substantial equity value gains and eased R&D investment pressures, allowing the company to focus resources on high-growth sectors like aesthetic medicine [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects to achieve a revenue of no less than RMB 2.5 billion and a net profit of no less than RMB 150 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, reflecting a growth rate of over 30% compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's aesthetic medicine business is projected to generate over RMB 1.4 billion in revenue and over RMB 700 million in segment profit, with both metrics showing an annual growth rate exceeding 90% [1] - The innovative drug business is entering a harvest phase, with significant revenue growth from Xuan Bamboo Biotechnology and Hui Sheng Biotechnology, improving the company's profit structure [1] - The company maintains a strong financial position with ample cash reserves, enabling multiple rounds of share buybacks and the successful spin-off of Xuan Bamboo Biotechnology, which alleviates R&D funding pressure [1][4] Group 2: Product Development and Market Position - The company has successfully obtained approvals for several self-developed core products in the aesthetic medicine sector, including various injectables and devices, establishing itself as a comprehensive player in the industry [2] - The market share of the core product, Le Ti Bao botulinum toxin, has increased to nearly 20%, with partnerships extending to over 8,000 aesthetic institutions [2] - The company is accelerating its global expansion, having signed an investment agreement with Swiss aesthetic company Suisselle to introduce its products to the EU market, thereby establishing a closed-loop market presence in Europe and the US [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company plans to deepen its strategic focus on aesthetic medicine, with seven products currently in the registration application stage and several others in late clinical phases, ensuring a robust pipeline for future growth [3] - The successful spin-off of Xuan Bamboo Biotechnology in October 2025 is expected to provide significant equity appreciation and support the company's focus on high-growth sectors like aesthetic medicine [4]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a focus on the company, indicating that it is undervalued with a reasonable valuation range of over HKD 25 billion [21]. Core Insights - The company has transitioned from traditional generic drugs to a dual-driven strategy focusing on "aesthetic medicine and innovative drugs," leading to a significant revenue increase in the aesthetic segment [21]. - The aesthetic medicine segment saw a revenue increase of 81% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, contributing significantly to the company's overall revenue growth [4][11]. - The innovative drug segment is expected to enter a revenue realization phase with the commercialization of new drugs, enhancing the company's financial outlook [12][16]. Summary by Sections Aesthetic Medicine - In H1 2025, aesthetic medicine revenue increased by 81% to HKD 5.9 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 8 percentage points to 73% [4][11]. - The core product, Letybo (botulinum toxin), has a market penetration of less than 2% in China, indicating substantial growth potential compared to higher penetration rates in the US and South Korea [5]. - The company has three major products approved in 2025, including facial fillers and water light needles, which are expected to drive significant sales growth [9][10]. Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug segment reported a 30% revenue increase to HKD 0.17 billion in H1 2025, with a focus on gastrointestinal and oncology treatments [12]. - The company has successfully commercialized its first innovative PPI drug, which is expected to maintain its price in the national basic medical insurance directory [12][14]. - The company holds a 49.13% stake in Xuan Zhu Bio, which has a market capitalization of HKD 34.5 billion, further enhancing its financial position [12]. Biopharmaceuticals - The biopharmaceutical segment, focusing on diabetes, has a comprehensive pipeline with over 20 products, and revenue is expected to see explosive growth in the next 2-3 years [17][18]. - The company reported a 40-fold increase in revenue to HKD 0.39 billion in H1 2025, with a focus on insulin and innovative diabetes treatments [17][18]. Generic Drugs - Generic drug revenue decreased by 16% to HKD 5.0 billion in H1 2025, accounting for 44% of total revenue, but the impact is expected to lessen as aesthetic and innovative drug segments grow [19]. - Key products include Clinao (a unique injection) and a mucosal solution for children, which are positioned to capture niche markets [19]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2025, with significant revenue growth driven by aesthetic and innovative drugs, alongside reduced R&D expenses [20]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 89% in H1 2025, reflecting strong cash flow management [20].

Core Viewpoint - Double-Helix Pharmaceutical (002038) is expected to continue incurring losses in 2025, with a projected net profit loss of between -200 million to -290 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 170.03% to 291.54% [3][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit loss of approximately -74.07 million yuan in 2024, marking a shift from profit to loss [3] - The expected non-recurring losses for 2025 are estimated to reduce net profit by about 200 million yuan, significantly impacting overall financial performance [5] - The sales revenue for 2024 was approximately 660 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.15% [3] Group 2: Sales and Margins - Sales gross margin decreased by about 10% due to a decline in product prices, which was influenced by centralized procurement policies [4] - The company's major product line, anti-tumor and immune regulation products, generated sales of 276 million yuan, accounting for 42.69% of total sales, with a year-on-year decline of 27.69% [4] Group 3: Investment and Financial Losses - The company faced significant investment losses, particularly from financial assets, which have become a critical factor affecting its performance [6] - Chairman Xu Mingbo has voluntarily committed to cover the irrecoverable portion of investment losses, with an initial payment of 50 million yuan to the company [5] Group 4: Strategic Response - The company plans to accelerate the launch of new products and strengthen its marketing network to adapt to changes in the pharmaceutical market due to procurement policies [5]

继2024年归属净利润出现亏损后，双鹭药业预计去年继续亏损，且较上年增亏。受此消息影响，2月2 日，双鹭药业股价以跌停收盘，收跌10.04%。双鹭药业方面表示，业绩预亏一方面是部分产品单价下 降导致销售毛利下降，另一方面为确认的理财投资损失与交易性金融资产等产生的公允价值变动收益。 在此背景下，双鹭药业董事长徐明波自愿承诺，投资理财无法挽回的差额部分最终确认后由其补足。 业绩预亏股价跌停 2月2日，双鹭药业以跌停收盘。 交易行情显示，2月2日，双鹭药业以跌停开盘，尽管在交易过程中，跌停板曾短暂被打开，但旋即重新 封死跌停至收盘，最终报跌停价6.9元/股，跌幅为10.04%。 据了解，双鹭药业成立于1994年，并于2004年登陆深交所主板。公司主要专注于基因工程及相关药物的 研究开发和生产经营，紧紧围绕疾病谱的变化布局研发、生产和服务领域。经营药品的治疗范围涉及肿 瘤、心脑血管、抗感染免疫、代谢病、创伤修复、肝病、肾病及罕见病等领域。 2025年，双鹭药业非经常性损益合计减少净利润约2亿元，这也是造成公司净利增亏的重要原因。其中 确认的理财投资损失与交易性金融资产等产生的公允价值变动收益是主要影响因素。 双鹭药 ...