Group 1 - The Philippine economy is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 due to multiple internal and external pressures, including natural disasters, governance issues, and reduced fiscal spending, alongside the impact of U.S. tariff policies [1][2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the current stock market rally driven by AI hype may be overly optimistic, with many potential earnings already reflected in stock prices, leading to inflated revenue and profit expectations [1][2] - The Bank of America survey indicates that 45% of respondents view the AI bubble as the biggest tail risk, while 54% consider the "Magnificent Seven" stocks as the most crowded trade, suggesting a potential market correction if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates [3] Group 2 - The Singapore Monetary Authority is likely to maintain its current policy in 2025 to retain flexibility amid ongoing global uncertainties, aligning with a near-closed output gap and moderate inflation recovery [4] - Franklin Templeton analysts suggest that a pause in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to a stronger dollar and flatten the U.S. Treasury yield curve, potentially suppressing previously favorable investment opportunities [4][5] - The private credit market is facing structural risks similar to those before the 2008 financial crisis, with significant growth from $46 billion to $1.7 trillion over the past decade, and projections of reaching $3 trillion by 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The easing of global trade tensions has led to a decline in safe-haven assets like gold and silver, with U.S. stocks reaching new highs, while the market anticipates potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Lake Futures indicates that the easing of global trade tensions has reduced risk aversion, resulting in pressure on precious metals [1] - The liquidity in the London silver market has significantly improved, with silver leasing rates dropping from 35% to 4%, leading to increased selling pressure on silver [1] - Analysts from City Index and FOREX.com note that improved market sentiment regarding trade has diminished the demand for gold as a hedge, with a critical psychological level at $4000 per ounce [3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities suggests that gold is no longer a wise short-term investment due to high volatility and crowded trades, recommending a wait for lower entry points around $3800-$3900 per ounce for long-term positioning [2] - Capitalight's research indicates that the current decline in gold prices is a corrective sell-off rather than a structural downturn, maintaining a constructive long-term outlook for gold [3] - The potential for further declines in gold prices exists, but geopolitical factors, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and a weakening dollar are expected to provide medium to long-term support for gold prices [2][3]