Core Insights - The prediction markets ecosystem is largely unregulated, allowing users to place bets on world events, with significant recent trades related to U.S. actions against Iran and regime change in Iran [1][2] - Concerns have been raised regarding potential insider trading, particularly with large bets placed shortly before significant events [2][3] - Donald Trump Jr. is a key figure in two major prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, serving as both an investor and advisor [4][5] Company Involvement - Trump Jr.'s involvement in Polymarket and Kalshi has raised ethical questions, especially regarding the potential for conflicts of interest due to his familial ties to the presidency [6][7] - Both Polymarket and Kalshi have benefited from Trump Jr.'s association, with reports indicating that his involvement has attracted other companies seeking his advisory role [10] - The CEOs of Polymarket and Kalshi faced regulatory scrutiny, but cases against them were dropped after the CFTC chose not to pursue enforcement actions [12][14] Financial Performance - Polymarket and Kalshi have seen significant trading volumes, with Polymarket reporting $529 million in trades related to U.S. actions against Iran [1] - Trump Jr. earned $813,000 in 2024 as a director of Trump Media & Technology Group, which is involved in launching a new prediction market called Truth Predict [18] New Ventures - Truth Predict, associated with the Trump family's media group, aims to enter the prediction market space, partnering with Crypto.com for its crypto ventures [16][17] - The platform will allow users to trade on various topics, including economic indicators and sports [16]

In 2026, the hottest new asset isn’t an AI startup or a meme coin. It’s…a word.By completing this form, you agree to receive marketing communications from PYMNTS and to the sharing of your information with our sponsor, if applicable, in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions .Complete the form to unlock this article and enjoy unlimited free access to all PYMNTS content — no additional logins required.Somewhere, a trader is staring at a livestream, whispering, “Say it, say it,” because “ ...

OpenAI has fired an employee over the employee’s activity on prediction markets, including Polymarket, the company confirmed to Wired. The employee used confidential OpenAI information in connection with the trades made, the company alleges. OpenAI didn’t release the name of the employee. However, a spokesperson said that such actions violated a company policy that bans workers from using inside information for personal gain, including on prediction markets. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kals ...

Insider Trading Is Shaping Prediction Markets. Polymarket Sees an Edge. - Barron'sSkip to Main ContentThis copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.(Illustration by Barron's)# Insider Trading Is Shaping Prediction Markets. Polymarket Sees an Edge.## Polymarket's social- ...

Prediction markets are exploding into mainstream chatter, and while Kalshi and Polymarket grab headlines, publicly traded plays may be the smarter way to invest in the boom.Prediction markets have ballooned from a niche corner of finance into a $63.5 billion trading volume phenomenon in 2025 alone, a fourfold increase from the prior year. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are actively capturing headlines and market share, but neither is publicly traded... yet.If you want to ride this wave through the sto ...

Axiom’s Insider Trading Scandal Spills Into Prediction Markets - Moby THE GIST Alleged crypto insiders didn’t just trade on private information — they may have bet on getting caught. Blockchain investigator ZachXBT’s latest report accuses employees at Axiom Exchange of abusing sensitive user wallet data to profit from meme-coin trades. But the scandal doesn’t stop there. According to the report, several wallets placed sizable bets on prediction markets anticipating which company ZachXBT would expose, wi ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：君实财经） Circle (CRCL) 2025 年第四季度财报电话会议记录 日期 2026年2月25日星期三上午8点（美国东部时间）电话参与者 首席财务官 — 杰里米·福克斯-吉恩 投资者关系副总裁——约翰·安德鲁斯要点 USDC 流通量——截至期末为 753 亿美元，同比增长 72%，其中平台内 USDC 增长 5.6 倍至 125 亿美 元，占总流通量的 17%。 链上交易量——本季度接近 12 万亿美元，同比增长 247%，表明数字美元的实用性和普及程度不断提 高。 总收入和储备金收入——7.7亿美元，同比增长77%，主要得益于美国存款账户增长和其他收入组成部 分。 调整后 EBITDA为 1.67 亿美元，同比增长 412%，调整后 EBITDA 利润率为 54%。 扣除分销成本后的收入利润率 (RLDC)为 40.1%，本季度环比增长 0.6 个百分点，主要原因是其他收入 增加。 分销、交易和其他成本——4.61亿美元，同比增长52%，其中包括上一年向一家大型合作伙伴支付的 6000万美元一次性款项。 其他收入——3700万美元，其中包括来自区块链网络合作的2470万美元和 ...

TL;DR: Prediction markets reached $9B (Polymarket) and $11B (Kalshi) valuations at the end of 2025, yet 0% of this capital can be borrowed against, creating DeFi's most extreme utilization gap. Token lending achieves 40-80% utilization, while NFT lending sits at ~1% and prediction market lending at 0%, leaving billions in digital wealth functionally trapped. The CFTC's approval of prediction markets as legitimate derivatives and ICE's $2B investment signal institutional acceptance that transforms "ga ...

Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market, has become a top betting platform for future events since its launch in 2020. It hosted nearly half a million monthly active traders as of last October, according to The Block, even though it's been banned in over a dozen countries. Polymarket is popular because it allows traders to bet on economic data, elections, geopolitical events, tech product launches, and other news events. It's also easy to use because its traders bet on simple "yes" or "no" ...

Core Insights - The discussion revolves around the increasing relevance of prediction markets in providing reliable information amidst a landscape of misinformation and uncertainty [3][4][22] - Prediction markets are posited as more accurate than traditional polling methods, particularly in forecasting election outcomes [4][19][22] - Concerns about market manipulation and insider trading are highlighted, indicating potential flaws in the reliability of prediction markets [5][21][23] Prediction Markets Overview - Companies like Cal Poly Market position themselves as trustworthy sources of truth in a world filled with misinformation [3] - Prediction markets have shown high accuracy in predicting election outcomes, especially for major races, outperforming traditional polls [4][19] - The accuracy of prediction markets is attributed to their method of aggregating information based on financial stakes rather than personal opinions [18][19] Market Regulation and Oversight - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates prediction markets in the U.S., overseeing what contracts are permissible [9][23] - There is an ongoing debate about whether prediction markets should be classified as gambling, which would subject them to stricter regulations and taxation [24] - Current taxation for earnings from prediction markets is treated as regular income, unlike traditional gambling platforms [24] Market Dynamics and User Experience - KALSI operates under U.S. regulations, while Poly Market primarily functions overseas, leading to differences in market offerings and regulatory oversight [9][14] - The user interface of prediction markets is noted to be simpler and more user-friendly compared to traditional sports betting platforms, attracting users [15] - A significant portion of KALSI's activity is focused on sports betting, while Poly Market's U.S. operations are entirely sports-related [14] Case Studies and Examples - An example is provided where traders on Poly Market closely monitored a speech by Jerome Powell, demonstrating how specific words can influence market behavior [26][28] - The incident illustrates the challenges in determining factual outcomes in prediction markets, highlighting the potential for ambiguity [28]