证券研究报告 全球量子科技产业化加速推进中 ——量子科技专题报告（一） 行业投资评级：强于大市|维持 孙业亮/刘聪颖 中邮证券研究所 计算机团队 中邮证券 1 1 发布时间：2026-02-26 投资要点 全球高度重视量子科技，国际竞争激烈：量子科技已成为全球主要国家开展科技、经济等领域综合 国力竞争，维护国家技术主权与发展主动权的战略重点之一，对国防安全、信息安全等关键领域有深远影 响；截至2025年8月，全球30余个国家和地区制定或更新量子信息领域的发展战略规划或法案文件，投资 金额已超过350亿美元；"十五五"规划将量子科技列入未来产业布局的首位，政策体系持续完善。 量子计算多技术路线竞相发展，亮点成果不断涌现：近年来，在实验室环境下超导、离子阱、中性 原子、光量子等主要技术路线原理样机的量子比特规模和逻辑门保真度等均有明显提升，量子纠错在新型 编码方案研究和逻辑量子比特构建等方面取得重要科研成果，量子软件与云平台技术成熟度不断提升，应 用场景探索广泛开展，一旦规模、噪声和控制超过某些阈值，性能差距的跃升将转化为巨大经济效益。 后量子密码系统迁移势在必行：量子计算技术的飞速发展，给传统密码学带来前所未有 ...

Summary of Honeywell International Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Honeywell International (NasdaqGS: HON) - **Date**: February 18, 2026 - **Key Speakers**: Vimal Kapur (Chairman and CEO), Mike Stepniak (SVP and CFO) Key Industry Insights Building Automation and Industrial Automation - Strong performance in building automation and industrial automation, particularly in North America, but weaker demand in Europe and China [4][6] - Long cycle businesses, especially in LNG and refining, are experiencing growth, while short cycle catalyst demand in petrochemicals is flat due to excess capacity [6][8] - Orders for long cycle projects are increasing, with significant bookings extending into 2027 and early 2028 [15][19] Market Dynamics - The external market conditions remain stable year-over-year, with no significant changes anticipated [2] - The company is focusing on improving its capacity to meet growing demand, particularly in aerospace and LNG sectors [21] Financial Performance and Guidance - Honeywell expects to maintain a strong financial performance, with guidance for 2026 reflecting continued growth in key segments [8][32] - The company is targeting a pricing increase of 3%-4% for 2026, driven by inflation and new product introductions [63][66] - Free cash flow conversion is projected to be high, with expectations of reaching the high nineties percentage [231] Strategic Initiatives Separation and Focus - The separation of Honeywell into more focused entities is believed to enhance operational efficiency and strategic clarity [22][32] - The company is transitioning to a pure-play automation company, which is expected to yield better growth opportunities [32][80] New Product Introductions (NPI) - New product development is a key growth strategy across all segments, with a focus on building automation and industrial automation [36][46] - The company is investing in R&D and customer co-creation to enhance its product offerings [46] Quantum Computing and AI Integration - Honeywell's quantum computing business, Quantinuum, is gaining traction with significant advancements in hardware and customer interest [98][135] - The integration of AI with quantum computing is seen as a major opportunity for future growth [127][131] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges related to inflation, supply chain constraints, and geopolitical factors affecting global operations [233][234] - The demand for catalysts is not linear and can lead to lumpiness in revenue, particularly in the process technology segment [188][190] Conclusion - Honeywell is positioned for growth in 2026, with strong demand in key sectors and a focus on innovation and strategic separation. The company is actively managing challenges related to inflation and supply chain while leveraging new technologies like quantum computing and AI to enhance its offerings and market position.

Group 1 - IonQ is a prominent player in quantum computing with a market cap of $13.7 billion and generates approximately $80 million in annual sales, but it may not be the best investment option in the sector [1][2] - Other companies with strong quantum computing programs and diversified businesses are suggested as better investment opportunities, as they can rely on their core operations if quantum projects do not yield immediate profits [2] - Honeywell, with a market cap of $144.8 billion, has established a strong position in quantum computing through its subsidiary Quantinuum, formed by merging its Quantum Solutions division with Cambridge Quantum [3][4] Group 2 - Quantinuum leverages Honeywell's trapped-ion hardware and Cambridge Quantum's software expertise, achieving industry-leading scores in quantum volume benchmarks and generating revenue from enterprise customers [5] - Honeywell retains a 54% stake in Quantinuum, providing shareholders with exposure to quantum computing advancements while maintaining stability through its core business [6] - Intel, valued at $243.6 billion, is not primarily recognized for its quantum computing efforts, as investors typically focus on its CPU and foundry challenges [7]

Core Thesis - Honeywell International Inc. is viewed as a value-unlocking opportunity, appealing to investors seeking steady, long-term upside rather than rapid gains [2][5] Company Overview - Honeywell operates in aerospace technologies, industrial automation, building automation, and energy and sustainable solutions across the United States, Europe, and internationally [2] - The company's share was trading at $227.24 as of January 28th, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 22.85 and 20.16 respectively [1] Strategic Developments - The materials business spin-off planned for October 2025 and the upcoming Aerospace separation in 2026 are expected to unlock further value by allowing the standalone businesses to trade at higher multiples [3] - Honeywell holds a 54% stake in Quantinuum, a quantum computing firm valued at approximately $5 billion, which could provide substantial upside through its anticipated IPO in 2027 [3] Financial Performance - Honeywell is reasonably valued around 20x P/E and offers a 2.5% dividend, supported by strong cash flow generation [4] - The company has a robust balance sheet and strategic spin-offs that position it well for capital returns and potential rerating [4] Investment Appeal - Honeywell combines the stability of a diversified industrial company with the optionality of emerging technologies like quantum computing, making it a compelling investment with clear catalysts for value realization [5] - The stock currently trades at $191, with price targets in the $230–260 range, indicating meaningful appreciation potential [3]

Group 1 - Honeywell International Inc. is recognized as one of the 12 Best Dow Jones Dividend Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds [1] - JPMorgan upgraded Honeywell from Neutral to Overweight and raised its price target from $218 to $255, citing a valuation gap and a disconnect between the share price and the value of Honeywell's assets, particularly in aerospace [2] - Honeywell's majority-owned quantum computing unit, Quantinuum, plans to confidentially file draft IPO papers with US regulators, aiming to capitalize on the growing interest in quantum technology [3][4] Group 2 - Quantinuum raised approximately $600 million from investors, including Nvidia's venture capital arm, at a valuation of $10 billion, and serves notable customers such as Honeywell, Airbus, BMW Group, HSBC, and JPMorgan Chase [4] - Honeywell has restructured its business into three standalone companies focused on automation, aerospace, and advanced materials, divesting smaller units to enhance its automation segment [5] - Honeywell operates as an integrated company across various industries, supported by its Honeywell Accelerator operating system and Honeywell Forge platform [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Honeywell reported a strong fourth quarter for 2025, with adjusted sales and adjusted EPS exceeding expectations, and orders increased by 23%, resulting in a backlog of over $37 billion [5][15] - For the full year 2025, sales increased by 7% organically, or 6% excluding the impact of the Bombardier agreement, with adjusted earnings per share rising to $9.78, up 12% year-over-year [21][30] - Free cash flow for 2025 was $5.1 billion, up 20%, representing a 14% margin [21][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerospace sales grew 11% organically, driven by strong demand in both commercial aftermarket and defense and space [15][22] - Building automation experienced 8% organic growth, with solutions growing by 9% and products by 8% [16] - Industrial automation saw a 1% increase in organic sales, while process solutions remained flat due to lower volumes in measurement and controls products [16][17] - Energy and sustainability solutions declined by 7%, attributed to lower petrochemical catalyst shipments [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America and the Middle East led regional performance, with Europe also showing strong mid-single-digit growth [16] - Orders grew 23% organically, with significant contributions from long-cycle aerospace and energy projects [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Honeywell is focused on portfolio simplification, with the aerospace spin expected to be completed in Q3 2026, following the successful spin-off of Solstice Advanced Materials [6][9] - The company is investing in R&D to drive innovation, with a goal of achieving 6%-9% earnings growth in 2026 [6][21] - Honeywell plans to reorganize into four segments: Aerospace Technologies, Building Automation, Process Automation and Technology, and Industrial Automation, to enhance strategic focus and agility [9][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in strong organic growth driven by record backlog conversion, disciplined pricing, and new product introductions [5][6] - The company anticipates continued strength in aerospace and building automation markets, with a gradual recovery expected in process automation [22][24] - Management acknowledged challenges in the petrochemical sector but remains optimistic about long-term demand in LNG and refining [61] Other Important Information - Honeywell's investment in Quantinuum is expected to be a modest headwind to margins in 2026, with significant R&D investments aimed at maintaining leadership in quantum computing [29][56] - The company has made key leadership appointments in preparation for the aerospace spin-off, enhancing operational experience [8][9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Margin progression for the total company - Management indicated that operational margins are expected to expand by 50-90 basis points, with a headwind from Quantinuum in the first quarter [42][43] Question: Aerospace margins and contract renewals - Aerospace margins are expected to improve as contract negotiations progress, with a positive long-term impact anticipated [48][50] Question: Quantinuum IPO and investment spending - Management confirmed a $100 million year-over-year increase in investment spending for Quantinuum, with ongoing efforts to prepare for a potential IPO [54][56] Question: Strength in process orders - Management noted increased capital spending in LNG and refining as a driver for order growth, while cautioning about ongoing pressure in the petrochemical sector [60][61] Question: Pricing strategy and inflation impacts - Management discussed a more mature pricing strategy in response to persistent inflation, with expected price increases of 3%-4% in 2026 [66][70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Honeywell reported a strong fourth quarter for 2025, with adjusted sales and adjusted EPS exceeding expectations, and orders increased by 23%, resulting in a backlog of over $37 billion [5][20] - For the full year 2025, sales increased by 7% organically, or 6% excluding the Bombardier agreement, with adjusted earnings per share of $9.78, up 12% year-over-year [21][30] - Free cash flow for 2025 was $5.1 billion, up 20%, representing a 14% margin [21][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerospace sales grew 11% organically, driven by strong demand in both commercial aftermarket and defense and space [15][22] - Building automation experienced 8% organic growth, with solutions growing by 9% and products by 8% [16] - Industrial automation saw a 1% increase in organic sales, while process solutions remained flat due to lower volumes in measurement and controls products [16][17] - Energy and sustainability solutions declined by 7% due to lower petrochemical catalyst shipments [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America and the Middle East led regional performance, with Europe showing strong mid-single-digit growth [16] - Orders momentum in UOP continued, with over 40% growth in refining and petrochemicals projects, supporting confidence in a gradual recovery in 2026 [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Honeywell is progressing with its portfolio simplification, expecting to complete the aerospace spin in Q3 2026, which will create three independent public companies [6][9] - The company is focusing on innovation and R&D investments, with a goal of driving organic growth through new product introductions [5][13] - Honeywell plans to reorganize into four segments: Aerospace Technologies, Building Automation, Process Automation and Technology, and Industrial Automation, to enhance operational efficiency [9][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving 6%-9% earnings growth in 2026, driven by strong organic growth and productivity improvements [6][21] - The company anticipates continued strength in orders growth, price execution, and a record backlog as key drivers for 2026 [36] - Management acknowledged challenges in the petrochemical sector but remains optimistic about long-cycle order strength in LNG and refining [61] Other Important Information - Honeywell's investment in Quantinuum is expected to be a modest headwind to margins in 2026, with significant R&D investments to maintain leadership in quantum computing [29][56] - The company has made key appointments to the aerospace leadership team to ensure operational excellence post-spin [8][9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Margin progression for the total company - Management expects operational margins to expand 50-90 basis points, with a headwind from Quantinuum in the first quarter [42][44] Question: Aerospace margins and contract negotiations - Aerospace margins are expected to improve as contract negotiations progress, with a positive long-term impact on margin expansion [48][50] Question: Quantinuum IPO and investment spending - Management confirmed a $100 million year-over-year increase in investment spending for Quantinuum, with ongoing maturation and commercial efforts [54][55] Question: Strength in process orders - Management noted increased capital spending in LNG and refining, contributing to strong order growth, while acknowledging pressure on catalyst demand in petrochemicals [60][61] Question: Pricing strategy and inflation impacts - Management indicated that pricing strategy has evolved to address persistent inflation, with an expected average price increase of 3-4% in 2026 [66][82]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Honeywell reported a strong fourth quarter, with adjusted sales and adjusted EPS exceeding expectations, and orders increased by 23%, resulting in a backlog of over $37 billion [4][15] - For the full year 2025, sales increased by 7% organically, or 6% excluding the Bombardier agreement, with adjusted earnings per share rising to $9.78, up 12% year-over-year [20][29] - Free cash flow for the fourth quarter was $2.5 billion, up 48%, and for the full year, it reached $5.1 billion, up 20% [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerospace sales grew 11% organically, driven by strong demand in both commercial aftermarket and defense and space [15][17] - Building automation experienced 8% organic growth, with solutions growing by 9% and products by 8% [15] - Industrial automation saw a 1% increase in organic sales, while process solutions remained flat due to lower volumes in measurement and controls products [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America and the Middle East led regional performance, with Europe showing strong mid-single-digit growth [16] - Orders in the UOP segment grew over 40% in refining and petrochemicals projects, indicating a gradual recovery expected in 2026 [17][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Honeywell is focused on portfolio simplification, with the aerospace spin expected to be completed in Q3 2026, creating three independent public companies [5][9] - The company is investing in R&D to drive innovation, with a goal of achieving 4% organic growth from new product introductions in 2025 [13][19] - Honeywell plans to reorganize into four segments: Aerospace Technologies, Building Automation, Process Automation and Technology, and Industrial Automation, to enhance strategic focus and agility [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving 6%-9% earnings growth in 2026, supported by strong organic growth and disciplined pricing execution [5][20] - The company anticipates continued strength in orders growth and a record backlog, which underpins their guidance for 2026 [35][36] - Management acknowledged challenges in the petrochemical sector but remains optimistic about long-cycle orders in LNG and refining [60] Other Important Information - Honeywell's investment in Quantinuum is expected to be a modest headwind to margins in 2026, with significant R&D investments aimed at maintaining leadership in quantum computing [28][56] - The company is pursuing the sale of its Productivity Solutions and Services and Warehouse and Workflow Solutions businesses in the first half of 2026 [9][92] Q&A Session Summary Question: Margin progression for the total company - Management indicated that operational margins are expected to expand by 50-90 basis points, with a headwind from Quantinuum in the first quarter [41][42] Question: Aerospace margins and contract renewals - Aerospace margins are expected to improve, with ongoing negotiations for contracts that will positively impact future margins [45][48] Question: Quantinuum IPO and investment spending - The company confirmed a $100 million year-over-year increase in investment spending for Quantinuum, with ongoing efforts to prepare for a potential IPO [53][56] Question: Strength in process orders - Management noted increased capital spending in LNG and refining, contributing to strong order growth, while cautioning about ongoing weakness in the petrochemical sector [58][60] Question: Pricing strategy and inflation impacts - Honeywell's pricing strategy has evolved to address persistent inflation, with expected price increases of 3%-4% in 2026 [65][68]

Core Insights - Nvidia has established itself as a significant player in the AI sector, actively investing in European startups to enhance its AI capabilities and maintain its leadership position in the industry [1][3]. Investment Trends - In 2025, Nvidia participated in 14 funding rounds for European tech companies, a significant increase from previous years, indicating a strategic focus on expanding its investment footprint in Europe [2]. - The total number of global startup rounds Nvidia invested in during the same year was 86, showcasing its aggressive investment strategy [2]. Notable Investments - Nvidia's investment in the French AI lab Mistral amounted to €1.7 billion in September, valuing the company at €11.7 billion ($13.6 billion) [5]. - The company invested $1.1 billion in Nscale in September and $433 million in October, highlighting its commitment to AI cloud computing services [6]. - Nvidia backed Quantinuum with $600 million in September, valuing the quantum computing company at $10 billion [7]. - In December, Nvidia participated in Lovable's Series B funding round, which raised $330 million and valued the startup at $6.6 billion [9]. - Nvidia also invested in Black Forest Labs, contributing to a $300 million funding round in December, valuing the company at $3.25 billion [10]. Additional Investments - Other notable investments include $180 million in N8n, $100 million in CuspAI, and $80 million in Charm Therapeutics, all occurring in September [12][13][15]. - Nvidia's participation in PolyAI's $86 million Series D in December further emphasizes its strategy to support AI-driven companies [14]. - The company made undisclosed equity investments in Cassava Technologies and Revolut, the latter being valued at $75 billion, marking it as Europe's highest valued startup [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The quantum computing sector appears overvalued, driven by retail investor enthusiasm, and is characterized by speculative investments despite minimal revenue generation [1][5][13]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Quantum computing stocks gained significant attention in 2025, particularly after Google's announcement regarding its Willow quantum chip in December 2024, which triggered a surge in stock prices [1][2]. - Stocks of companies like IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, and Rigetti Computing saw substantial increases following Google's update, indicating a strong market reaction [2][4]. - The sector has been compared to other speculative technology sectors that have risen alongside the AI boom, despite their current lack of substantial revenue [5][6]. Group 2: Retail Investor Behavior - Retail investors have shown a strong interest in quantum computing stocks, with some behaving similarly to meme stocks, driven by the potential for high returns [10][12]. - The appeal of quantum computing stocks lies in their promise of future technological advancements, with projections suggesting a potential $1.3 trillion value addition to various industries by 2035 [11]. - The popularity of these stocks among retail investors has raised concerns about their valuations, as they are not supported by significant revenue or technological advancements compared to larger tech companies [13][16]. Group 3: Technology Overview - Quantum computing operates on the principles of quantum mechanics, utilizing quantum bits (qubits) to solve complex problems more efficiently than classical computers [8][9]. - The technology holds potential for breakthroughs in fields such as pharmaceuticals and engineering, although the timeline for achieving disruptive scale remains uncertain [9][18]. Group 4: Expert Opinions - Experts like Scott Aaronson have expressed skepticism regarding the current batch of quantum computing stocks, suggesting that their price increases are more a result of marketing than genuine technological progress [16][17]. - The speculative nature of investments in quantum computing stocks, particularly among inexperienced investors, raises concerns about the sustainability of their current valuations [6][17].