According to Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist, “Inventory levels are about 20% above one year ago, so there are more choices for consumers (6).” Meanwhile, Realtor.com’s 2026 housing forecast predicts an 8.9% year-over-year increase in existing home inventory for 2026 (7).The good news for homeowners is that housing inventory appears to be on the rise.One big reason home prices generally remain high has been limited inventory. When supply is scarce, prices tend to rise.Here’s a closer look at why thi ...

Core Viewpoint - The average 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage rate is projected to range between 5.75% and 6.6% for the year 2026, with various economic factors influencing these predictions. Mortgage Rate Forecasts - Capital Economics forecasts an average mortgage rate of 6.5% in Q4 2026 [1] - Hunter Housing Economics predicts an average of 6.6% in 2026, citing potential impacts from Federal Reserve leadership changes [2] - The Mortgage Bankers Association and PNC Bank both forecast an average of 6.4% in 2026 [6] - Compass and Realtor.com estimate rates at 6.3% for 2026 [6][7] - Moody's forecasts a slightly lower average of 6.23% in 2026 [8] - Cotality and Yale School of Management predict rates of 6.2% in 2026 [9] - Wells Fargo anticipates an average of 6.18% in 2026 [10] - The National Association of Realtors forecasts a more optimistic average of 6% in 2026 [12] - Morgan Stanley and Erdmann Housing Tracker project the lowest average at 5.75% in 2026 [14] Economic Influences - The forecasts reflect uncertainty due to factors such as inflation expectations, budget deficits, and GDP growth rates [2] - The "mortgage rate lock-in effect" is noted, where homeowners are reluctant to sell due to existing lower mortgage rates [7] - Economic conditions, including potential job market weaknesses, could lead to lower mortgage rates than currently anticipated [20] Historical Context - The average annual range of the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been 1.4 percentage points since 1972, with a narrower range of 1.08 points this century [19] - Recent years have seen significant underestimations of mortgage rates due to unprecedented economic events [5] Market Dynamics - The existing-home market has experienced constrained turnover, influenced by affordability issues and the lock-in effect [16] - A potential economic slowdown could further impact mortgage rates and market activity [20]

Core Perspective - The article discusses the psychological barriers that potential homebuyers face in the current housing market, emphasizing that mindset may be a larger obstacle than market conditions themselves [1][5][14]. Housing Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Home Ownership Affordability Monitor indicates that housing affordability is significantly constrained compared to historical norms, with mortgage rates rising from approximately 3% in 2021 to over 7% in 2023, increasing typical monthly payments by more than $1,000 compared to pre-pandemic levels [2][4]. - Realtor.com's 2026 housing forecast predicts mortgage rates will remain around 6.3% this year, while home prices have surged roughly 50% in many markets since 2020, leaving many potential buyers feeling sidelined [4][6]. Buyer Mindset and Strategies - Grant Cardone identifies three common mistakes that hinder buyers: adopting a defeatist mindset, focusing solely on price rather than creative financing options, and prioritizing the best house over the best location [5][10]. - Cardone suggests that buyers should target homes with no remaining mortgage or those with low-interest existing mortgages, as sellers may be open to non-traditional financing arrangements [7][9]. Location and Value - Cardone emphasizes the importance of location, arguing that purchasing the worst house in a desirable area is preferable to buying the best house in a mediocre location, as properties in prime locations tend to appreciate more consistently [10][12]. - He advises buyers to look for areas with higher discretionary income and established national retail chains, which are indicators of economically strong neighborhoods [11]. Affordability Challenges - The article highlights that for many buyers, the challenge is not merely a mindset issue but a mathematical one, as access to affordable homes remains out of reach for many households [15]. - It is noted that a 1% decline in mortgage rates could potentially add around 5.5 million households to the pool of potential buyers, illustrating the sensitivity of affordability to interest rates [8]. Recommendations for Buyers - Buyers are encouraged to get pre-approved to understand their actual affordability, consider total monthly costs beyond just the purchase price, and factor in maintenance, property taxes, insurance, and potential HOA fees [16]. - Flexibility in approach is recommended, but decisions should align with personal finances, risk tolerance, and long-term goals, as Cardone's advice may not be universally applicable [17].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues increased by 6% to $2.4 billion for the quarter, with total segment EBITDA expanding by 9% to $521 million, despite a one-time inventory-related charge at HarperCollins [4][20] - Net income from continuing operations was $242 million, a 21% decrease from the prior year, attributed to the absence of a favorable $87 million gain from the sale of PropertyGuru [4][21] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.40, compared to $0.33 in the prior quarter, with profitability margin rising from 21.4% to 22.1% [4][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Dow Jones**: Revenues rose by 8% to $648 million, with segment EBITDA increasing by 10% to $191 million, achieving a record profit margin of 29.5% [21][24] - **Digital Real Estate Services**: Segment revenues grew by 8% to $511 million, with segment EBITDA up 11% to $206 million [25][20] - **Book Publishing**: Revenues increased by 6% to $633 million, although segment EBITDA declined by 2% to $99 million due to a one-time write-off [29][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S. market, Realtor.com saw revenues grow by 10% to $143 million, driven by improved lead volume and premium products [11][26] - In Australia, REA's revenues grew by 7% to $368 million, benefiting from yield growth and improved listing volumes [12][25] - Digital advertising revenue at Dow Jones reached a record level of $87 million, rising 12% supported by demand from the financial services sector [8][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on transforming into a digital-first entity, increasing recurring revenues while reducing dependence on advertising [5][19] - There is a strong emphasis on operational efficiency and margin expansion, with a disciplined approach to capital expenditures [18][19] - The company is exploring AI partnerships to enhance its content offerings and is confident in its ability to monetize proprietary content in the evolving AI landscape [6][35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for the second half of the fiscal year, citing strong performance in core business segments and a robust balance sheet [4][16] - The evolving impact of AI is acknowledged, with management confident in the company's unique content and its ability to meet the needs of AI companies [35][39] - The company anticipates continued strong revenue growth in B2B segments, particularly at Dow Jones, and is focused on maximizing shareholder value through share buybacks [19][51] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $172 million in shares during the quarter, significantly higher than the previous year [20][51] - The launch of the California Post is highlighted as a strategic move to enhance the company's media presence [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market reaction to AI and its implications for News Corp - Management clarified that AI's retrospective nature does not pose a significant threat, as the company produces contemporary, proprietary content that AI companies need to pay for [33][34] Question: Investment in Dow Jones and CapEx related to AI - Management expressed confidence in Dow Jones and indicated that CapEx for Dow Jones would be modestly down this year, while overall free cash flow is expected to grow [38][41] Question: M&A strategy and areas of interest - Management stated that they are constantly looking for reasonable investments but will prioritize organic growth and share buybacks [49][50] Question: Simplifying the company structure - Management emphasized a focus on generating long-term value and highlighted the positive trajectory of Realtor.com amidst competition [54][56] Question: Subscription revenue growth and pricing strategy at Dow Jones - Management noted that there is potential for price elasticity in subscriptions and highlighted the success in securing enterprise customers [63][66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues increased by 6% to $2.4 billion for the quarter, with total segment EBITDA expanding by 9% to $521 million, despite a one-time inventory-related charge at HarperCollins [4][20] - Net income from continuing operations was $242 million, a 21% decrease from the prior year, primarily due to the absence of a favorable $87 million gain from the sale of PropertyGuru [4][21] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.40, compared to $0.33 in the prior quarter, with profitability margin rising from 21.4% to 22.1% [4][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Dow Jones**: Revenues rose by 8% to $648 million, with digital revenues accounting for 82% of segment revenues. Segment EBITDA grew by 10% to $191 million, achieving a profit margin of 29.5% [21][25] - **Digital Real Estate Services**: Revenues increased by 8% to $511 million, with segment EBITDA up 11% to $206 million. Realtor.com revenues grew by 10% to $143 million, driven by premium products and improved lead volume [11][26] - **Book Publishing**: Revenues grew by 6% to $633 million, although segment EBITDA declined by 2% to $99 million due to a one-time write-off related to inventory [29][31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Australia, REA revenues grew by 7%, benefiting from double-digit yield growth and improved listing volumes in major cities [12][26] - Digital advertising revenue at Dow Jones reached a record $87 million, rising by 12%, particularly supported by demand from the financial services sector [8][25] - The Times and The Sunday Times in the UK saw digital subscribers rise by 7% to 659,000, while News Corp Australia reached nearly 1.2 million total subscribers, surpassing the prior year by 4% [14][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on transforming into a digital-first entity, increasing recurring revenues, and reducing dependence on advertising [5][19] - There is a strong emphasis on operational efficiency and disciplined investment in core growth pillars: Dow Jones, Digital Real Estate, and Book Publishing, which collectively accounted for 95% of profitability [18][19] - The company is actively pursuing AI partnerships and content licensing opportunities to enhance revenue streams [10][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the second half of the fiscal year, citing strong cash flow and a robust balance sheet [5][16] - The evolving impact of AI on the industry was discussed, with management confident in the value of proprietary content and the company's ability to monetize it [6][36] - The outlook for Dow Jones remains positive, with expectations of continued strong revenue growth in B2B segments [32] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $172 million in shares during the quarter, significantly higher than the previous year, and plans to continue this trend [20][51] - The launch of the California Post was highlighted as a strategic move to enhance the company's media presence [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market reaction to AI and its implications for business services - Management clarified that AI's impact is often misunderstood, emphasizing the value of proprietary content and the company's strategy to monetize it through partnerships and legal actions against unauthorized use [35][36] Question: Investment in Dow Jones and CapEx related to AI - Management expressed confidence in the Dow Jones Professional Information business and indicated that CapEx for Dow Jones would be modestly down this year, while overall free cash flow growth is expected to remain strong [40][42] Question: M&A strategy and areas of interest - Management stated that they are continuously looking for sensible investments but will prioritize organic growth and share buybacks at reasonable prices [49][50] Question: Simplifying the company structure and competition from Homes.com - Management noted ongoing evaluations of the company structure to enhance shareholder value and expressed confidence in Realtor.com's growth trajectory despite competition [54][56] Question: Subscription revenue growth and pricing strategy at Dow Jones - Management highlighted successful increases in enterprise customers and the potential for price elasticity, while also noting improvements in ARPU excluding enterprise customers [63][66]

Core Insights - Miami has surpassed New York City as the U.S. metro area with the highest volume of million-dollar listings, indicating a significant shift in the luxury real estate market [1] - The demand for Miami's luxury properties is heavily influenced by migration from the New York City metro area, which accounts for over 25% of the demand [2] Market Dynamics - The increase in million-dollar listings in Miami reflects a new baseline for the market, with high-income earners now considering $1 million to $5 million as standard entry-level prices [7] - New York City is experiencing a luxury inventory shortage, with listings down nearly 10% compared to the previous year, attributed to high construction costs and stringent zoning laws [4][5] Supply and Demand Factors - Miami's luxury market is less affected by seasonal cycles, allowing for more stable inventory levels compared to New York, which typically sees a significant drawdown in winter months [5] - The structural shift in the luxury market is confirmed by the movement of wealth and high-income earners towards Miami, as noted by real estate experts [3]

Group 1 - The influx of new residents to smaller cities like Indianapolis, Columbus, and Denver is driven by the search for a lower cost of living, but this may lead to increased pressure on rent rates and housing prices if housing supply does not keep pace with demand [1][1][1] - Population growth in these cities can create a cycle where affordability attracts more people, which in turn drives up costs, as noted by housing experts [1][1][1] - Local leaders are focused on promoting economic growth while managing the challenge of rising living costs, as seen in Denver where the economic development agency is tasked with ensuring housing stock meets demand [1][1][1] Group 2 - The construction of high-end homes has increased, partly due to a growing wealth gap, which may limit the availability of moderately-priced housing options [1][1][1] - A significant number of apartments (18,000 to 20,000) have entered the market in Denver, contributing to a decrease in rent prices, but maintaining this trend is crucial to avoid market disruptions [1][1][1] - The volume of Americans relocating has decreased by over 50% since 2021, with many choosing to stay within the same metro area, indicating a shift in mobility patterns influenced by housing affordability [1][1][1]

Mortgage Rates - The average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 6.09% from 6.06% last week, remaining the lowest in three years [1] - A year ago, the average rate on a 30-year loan was 6.96% [1] - The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage rose to 5.44% from 5.38% last week [5] Market Dynamics - The improving economy and lower mortgage rates compared to last year are attracting more homebuyers [4] - The 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.25% as of Thursday afternoon, influencing mortgage rates [4] - Recent policy decisions, including the announcement of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buying $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, have contributed to rate volatility [8] Buyer Behavior - Homebuyers are encouraged to shop around for the best mortgage rates, as multiple quotes can lead to significant savings [4] - Uncertainty around the implementation of new policies may limit their immediate impact on the housing market [9]

Mortgage Rates Overview - The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate increased to 6.09% from 6.06% last week, remaining near its lowest level in over three years, compared to 6.96% a year ago [1] - The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 5.44% from 5.38% last week, down from 6.16% a year ago [2] Influencing Factors - Mortgage rates are affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, bond market expectations regarding the economy and inflation, and generally follow the 10-year Treasury yield [3] - The recent increase in mortgage rates coincides with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, which increased to 4.27% from 4.17% due to geopolitical tensions and market turbulence [4] Housing Market Conditions - The U.S. housing market has been experiencing a sales slump since 2022, attributed to rising mortgage rates, high home prices, and a shortage of homes due to low construction rates [5] - Economic uncertainty and job market concerns are causing potential buyers to hesitate, although a recent decline in mortgage rates has led to a temporary boost in existing home sales, which rose by 5.1% in December [6] Refinancing Trends - Applications for mortgage refinancing loans surged by 20% last week, making up nearly 62% of all home loan applications, while applications for home purchase loans increased by 5% [7] - Economists predict that mortgage rates may decrease further this year, but the average rate for a 30-year mortgage is expected to remain above 6%, approximately double the rate from six years ago [7] Homeowner Dynamics - A significant portion of U.S. homes with outstanding mortgages have fixed rates of 5% or lower, with over half having rates at or below 4%, making it challenging for these homeowners to refinance at higher rates [8]

For years, home buyers have been told the housing market would eventually "normalize" — meaning if mortgage rates came down or inventory improved, affordability would return to something resembling pre-pandemic levels such as 2019. But new data from Realtor.com suggests that version of the market may never come back, and returning to pre-pandemic affordability would require outcomes economists say are extremely unlikely.The numbers underscore a tougher reality for buyers, one expert points out: America’s ho ...