over at Goldman's 36th annual financial services conference underway in New York City. You've seen great content from there over the past day or so. Leslie Picker is there now joined exclusively by Blackstone President and COO Jonathan [music] Gray.Perfect timing as we're about to hear from the Fed. Leslie, over to you. >> Perfect timing indeed.Kelly. John, thank you so much for joining us. As Kelly mentioned, it's a great day to have you and get your perspective really on the macro.I'm just curious what yo ...

分组1 - Hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut are increasing, with an 87% probability priced in by traders, following a softer than expected ADP reading on private payrolls [3][4] - Jensen Wang, CEO of Nvidia, is lobbying for favorable federal policies for Nvidia and the AI industry, amid rising investments and forecasts about AI's transformative potential [5][6] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the recent surge in copper prices, which have risen over 20% since July, may not be sustainable due to sufficient supply to meet global demand [46][47] 分组2 - Dollar General reported third-quarter earnings of $128 per share on revenue of $10.6 billion, raising its full-year estimates for earnings and same-store sales, leading to a pre-market stock rise of over 3% [10] - Dollar Tree's CEO noted that over half of new customers in the third quarter had household incomes above $100,000, indicating a trend of wealthier customers seeking discounts [11] - Five Below reported a 14% increase in same-store sales, raising its profit outlook three times this year, with its stock also rising over 4% in pre-market trading [12] 分组3 - Costco's November same-store sales increased by 6.9%, but results fell short of analyst expectations, leading to a decline in stock price ahead of its full earnings report [13][14] - Macy's experienced its strongest growth in three years, but the CEO warned of cost pressures and selective spending potentially impacting holiday sales [15] - Kroger is expected to report a significant accounting hit of about $2.6 billion in Q3 due to the shutdown of three automated fulfillment centers [17] 分组4 - The national average for gasoline in the US has dropped to a four-year low of $2.99 per gallon, with prices expected to fall further into the holiday season [51][53] - Analysts predict that Brent crude oil prices could drop below $60 per barrel next year, contributing to lower gasoline prices [55] - The World Gold Council forecasts that gold prices could rise between 15% and 30% in 2026, following a 60% increase in 2025 [56]

Market Overview - US stock futures are holding onto gains after a drop of more than 2% last week for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, despite a rebound on Friday [1] - Bitcoin is back above $85,000 but has fallen from weekend highs, reflecting risk-off sentiment as investors question potential Fed interest rate cuts in December [2] - Upcoming PPI and retail sales data will provide insights into inflation and consumer state, while the White House plans to announce a framework to reduce healthcare costs this week [3][4] Retail Sector Insights - Airlines expect to carry over 31 million people during the Thanksgiving holiday, indicating a strong travel demand post-government shutdown [5] - Retail earnings reports are anticipated, with companies like Kohl's and Best Buy expected to perform better than previously thought, particularly in electronics sales [10][11] - Kohl's interim CEO Michael Bender is expected to be named permanent CEO, as the company struggles with negative same-store sales growth [15][16] Federal Reserve Commentary - Fed Governor Chris Waller supports a rate cut in December, citing a softening job market and potential downward revisions to the September jobs report [19][20] - Boston Fed President Susan Collins does not see a strong need for a rate cut, indicating possible dissent within the Fed [22] - Market sentiment shifted after New York Fed President John Williams suggested a near-term rate cut, impacting stock market expectations [23][24] Cryptocurrency Market - Institutional investors are currently sidelined, with ETF outflows in November reaching $3.5 billion, the highest since February [27] - The crypto market has seen a significant sell-off, with $1.3 trillion in market cap wiped out, representing a 31% decline [28] - MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchases are being closely monitored, with expectations of further acquisitions following recent price declines [30] Company-Specific Developments - Tesla's stock is buoyed by CEO Elon Musk's announcement regarding the company's AI chip development, which is expected to enhance self-driving technology [32] - Novo Nordisk's Alzheimer's drug trial did not yield significant results, negatively impacting its stock as it faces competition in the GLP-1 market [34] - Oscar Health and Centene stocks are rising due to reports of a proposed two-year extension of Obamacare subsidies, which could stabilize health insurance premiums [35]

Market Performance - All four major indices posted solid gains, with the Nasdaq Composite leading at almost 2.25% increase [2] - Small cap stocks also performed well, as the Russell 2000 added just under 2.2% [2] - The S&P 500 gained nearly 1.25%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up just over 1% [2] Economic Outlook - Markets are anticipating two more rate cuts from the Fed this year, one in October and another in December [3] - The upcoming economic data will be closely scrutinized, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge [4][3] IPO Market - The IPO market is showing strength, with many companies being oversubscribed, indicating strong investor interest [5] - There is currently $7.7 trillion in money market funds, suggesting significant capital remains on the sidelines, which could benefit upcoming IPOs [5] Company News - Pfizer is in talks to acquire Metsera for $4.9 billion, focusing on weight loss products [6] - Saks is negotiating to sell a 49% stake to Bergdorf Goodman for $1 billion [6] - Oracle will participate in the consortium purchasing TikTok, responsible for security post-acquisition [6] - Micron Technology is set to report earnings soon, with Costco also scheduled to release earnings later in the week [6] - FactSet estimates earnings growth of nearly 8% for the third quarter, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of growth [6] Commodity Market - Gold has reached a record high, with futures up over 1% to $3747 per ounce, driven by bond market volatility [8] - Investors are turning to gold and silver amid uncertainty in the bond market [8] Emerging Trends - Crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, experienced significant selloffs but have recovered in premarket trading [9] - Quantum computing and nuclear power stocks have seen massive gains, attributed to growth in Artificial Intelligence [9]