US stocks recovered from steeper losses on Thursday but still broadly fell as Nvidia's (NVDA) stellar earnings failed to wow investors and left Wall Street juggling growing worries over AI's potential for payoff and disruption. The tech-exposed Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) lost 1.2%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell about 0.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose above the flat line, following solid wins for stocks more broadly on Wednesday. Nvidia shares fell over 5% as the chip giant received a luk ...

Geopolitical risks are a negative for stocks. US-Iran nuclear talks are scheduled to resume on Thursday in Geneva, and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he saw a “good chance” of a diplomatic solution to the standoff over his country’s nuclear program. Last Friday, President Trump said that he’s considering a limited military strike on Iran to ramp up pressure on the country to strike a deal over its nuclear program, and that he thought 10 to 15 days was “pretty much” the “maximum” he would allow for n ...

The US Dec S&P composite-20 home price index rose +0.47% m/m and +1.38% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.30% m/m and +1.30% y/y.Geopolitical risks are a negative for stocks. US-Iran nuclear talks are scheduled to resume on Thursday in Geneva, and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he saw a “good chance” of a diplomatic solution to the standoff over his country’s nuclear program. Last Friday, President Trump said that he’s considering a limited military strike on Iran to ramp up pressure on the coun ...

All three main indexes dropped more than 1% on Monday, with financials and software stocks among the worst hit ‌as the fallout ⁠from Friday's ⁠U.S. Supreme Court ruling on Trump's Trump announced a temporary global tariff of 10% after Friday's ruling, ​which came into effect on Tuesday. He later said the levy would be 15%, but it was unclear when and ​if it would apply."While the direct impact of tariffs may prove temporary from a monetary perspective, the lack of clarity regarding their duration and scope ...

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com][Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]Moving the marketThe major indexes opened sharply lower as President Trump ramped up his tariff rhetoric again, responding to the Supreme Court’s strike-down of his “reciprocal” tariffs.In a Monday post, he warned that any country “playing games” with the ruling—especially those that have “ripped off” the U.S. for years—would face much higher tariffs than previously agreed.He also said duties would start immediately (though it’s unclear i ...

With options expiration now behind us, markets could face their own storm. Roughly $15 billion in T-bill settlements are due on February 24, followed by another $22 billion on February 26. In addition, coupon settlements of $37 billion on February 27 and $59 billion on March 2 are scheduled. That totals approximately $130 billion that could be absorbed by the Treasury over the next week. Net Settlement On top of that, cross-currency basis spreads have moved modestly this past week. I tend to view the JPY 5- ...

Core Insights - The S&P 500 Index experienced significant volatility due to reactions to Federal Reserve officials' statements, Nvidia's earnings report, and the ongoing cryptocurrency market crash [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Market participants showed heightened volatility in response to key statements from Federal Reserve officials [1] - Nvidia's earnings report was closely monitored, contributing to market fluctuations [1] - The ongoing cryptocurrency market crash added to the overall market instability [1]

Group 1: Nvidia Earnings and Market Reaction - Nvidia reported strong earnings with a 66% growth in data center revenue, exceeding expectations [4][5] - Despite initial gains, Nvidia's shares finished lower, reflecting market concerns about the economic situation and potential AI bubble [5] - The Bitcoin market is experiencing a downturn, with Bitcoin dropping below $83,000, marking a 33% decline from its peak [6] Group 2: Retail Earnings Overview - Home Depot's shares fell 6% after missing earnings expectations and cutting guidance due to a cautious outlook on consumer spending and a soft housing market [8] - Lowe's initially dropped in sympathy with Home Depot but later rebounded after beating earnings expectations, although it remains cautious about the economic environment [9][10] - Walmart's shares rose 6% following strong earnings driven by e-commerce and international sales, while Target's shares declined due to a third consecutive quarter of declining comparable store sales, down 2.7% [11][12][13] Group 3: Fintech and Consumer Lending Sector - The buy now pay later fintech sector is under pressure, with Klarna reporting a loss and a significant increase in provisions for credit losses, leading to a 16% decline in its stock [14][15] - Competitors like Affirm and SoFi also saw declines of 13% and 10% respectively, indicating concerns about consumer delinquencies [15][16] Group 4: Economic Data and Job Market - September jobs data showed an addition of 119,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, primarily due to more people re-entering the job market [17][18] - Revisions to previous months' job data raised recession concerns, with August now showing a loss of 4,000 jobs [18][19] Group 5: Tariff Rollbacks and Federal Reserve Signals - Recent tariff rollbacks are seen as a response to economic pressures, with the Fed's stance on potential rate cuts becoming increasingly mixed [21][25] - Market expectations for December rate cuts have fluctuated significantly, reflecting uncertainty in economic conditions [25][27] Group 6: Upcoming Economic Events - The upcoming Thanksgiving week is expected to bring lower market volume and potential volatility, with a flood of economic data and earnings reports anticipated [28][29] - Black Friday will provide crucial insights into consumer spending behavior and retailer performance as the holiday season approaches [33][34]

Market Overview - The US stock rally experienced a reversal as investors reacted to Nvidia's earnings and the September jobs report [1][2] - The Nasdaq Composite fell approximately 0.3% after an earlier rise of about 2.5%, while the S&P 500 decreased around 0.2% after gaining as much as 1.8% [2] Nvidia Performance - Nvidia's stock initially surged nearly 5% following a strong earnings report and an optimistic revenue outlook for Q4, but later turned negative [3] - CEO Jensen Huang highlighted that demand for Blackwell processors is "off the charts," alleviating concerns about a potential long-term slowdown in AI-linked stocks [3] Employment Data - The September nonfarm payrolls report indicated the US economy added 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected gain of 51,000 [4] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the jobs report, options traders estimated a 38% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in December, reflecting a divided view among policymakers [5][6] - The recent data provided insights into the US economy post the longest government shutdown, with differing opinions on whether a cooling labor market or persistent inflation poses greater risks [6] Walmart Earnings - Walmart raised its full-year forecasts after surpassing profit and sales expectations in Q3, leading to a rise in its shares [7] - The retailer's performance is viewed as indicative of consumer strength heading into the holiday season [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - US stocks experienced a climb on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way, rising approximately 0.5% after an earlier increase of about 2.5% [2] - The S&P 500 added nearly 0.4% after gaining as much as 1.8% in early trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 0.3% [2] Group 2: Nvidia Earnings - Nvidia's stock surged nearly 5% in early trading following an earnings beat and a stronger-than-expected revenue outlook for Q4, with CEO Jensen Huang noting that demand for Blackwell processors is "off the charts" [3] Group 3: Employment Data - The September nonfarm payrolls report indicated that the US economy added 119,000 jobs, significantly above the expected 51,000, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in August [4] - Following the jobs report, options traders adjusted their expectations, pricing in around 42% odds of a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in December, up from 28% earlier that morning [5] Group 4: Federal Reserve Insights - Minutes from the Fed's October meeting revealed a divide among policymakers regarding whether a cooling labor market or persistent inflation poses a greater risk to the economy, contributing to uncertainty about the December decision [7] Group 5: Walmart Earnings - Walmart raised its full-year forecasts after beating profit and sales expectations in Q3, with shares jumping as investors viewed the report as indicative of consumer strength heading into the holiday season [8]