分享 reface 前⾔ at if our AI bullishness continues to be right...and what if that's actually bearish? 果我们的对 AI 的乐观持续正确……而这反而成了利空，会怎样？ at follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn't bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. e sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that's been relatively underexplored. Our nd Alap Shah posed the question, and together we brainstormed the answer. We wrote this t, and he's written two others you can find here. 下情景为设想，而非预测。这并非唱空轰动或人工智能末日主义同人文。本文唯一 的，是对一个相对较少被探讨的情景进行建模。我 ...

Key Takeaways AI disruption fears sparked a broad selloff led by IBM and payment, delivery and software stocks.Energy and tanker shipping ETFs rose on oil strength and higher freight rates.Biotech strength and a bear ETF offered shelter as Wall Street turned volatile.Concerns about the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence resurfaced on Feb. 23, 2026, triggering a selloff in delivery, payments and software stocks. The wave of anxiety pushed International Business Machines (IBM) to its steepest declin ...

A short-lived rebound in stocks petered out as fears about the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence continued to unsettle markets.That's after tech, delivery and payment shares slid following a Citrini Research report outlining potential AI risks across industries. The weakness was compounded by lingering uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariffs. Erik Wytenus is Head of EMEA Investment Strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank joins Stephen Carroll and Caroline Hepker to discuss. ...

(Bloomberg) — Delivery, payments, and software stocks slid sharply Monday after Citrini Research published a report laying out the potential risks that artificial intelligence could pose to various segments of the global economy. DoorDash Inc. (DASH). American Express Co. (AXP) and Blackstone Inc (BX) all slumped more than 7%. Shares of other companies name-checked in the article, including Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER), Mastercard Inc. (MA), Visa Inc (V), Capital One Financial Corp. (COF), Apollo Global ...

Grab Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:GRAB) is one of the best NASDAQ growth stocks to buy for the next 2 years. On February 11, Grab Holdings reported its first full year of net profitability with a net profit of $200 million in 2025. Group revenue rose 19% to $906 million for Q4, which was driven by a 21% surge in On-Demand GMV across its mobility and delivery sectors. The company’s focus on a product-led affordability strategy successfully expanded its user base to over 129 million annual transacting users. A ...

Economic Data - U.S. durable goods orders fell -1.4% m/m in December, better than the expected -1.8% m/m, while core durable goods orders rose +0.9% m/m, exceeding expectations of +0.3% m/m [1] - U.S. December housing starts increased +6.2% m/m to 1.404 million, surpassing expectations of 1.310 million, and building permits rose +4.3% m/m to 1.448 million, above the expected 1.400 million [1] - U.S. industrial production rose +0.7% m/m in January, stronger than the anticipated +0.4% m/m [1] Stock Market Movements - Wall Street's three main equity benchmarks closed higher, with Global Payments (GPN) surging over +16% after issuing above-consensus FY26 adjusted EPS guidance [2] - Micron Technology (MU) rose more than +5% and Applied Materials (AMAT) gained over +2% [2] - Palantir Technologies (PLTR) increased more than +1% following an upgrade from Mizuho [2] - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) fell over -6% after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS guidance [2] Investor Sentiment - Investors are awaiting new U.S. economic data, remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and Walmart's earnings report [3] - Renewed caution about the outlook for AI has negatively impacted sentiment, with most members of the Magnificent Seven stocks edging lower in pre-market trading [3] Geopolitical Concerns - Investors are concerned about the potential for U.S. military intervention in Iran, despite progress in nuclear talks [4] - The U.S. has reportedly assembled its largest air power presence in the Middle East since 2003, raising tensions [4] - WTI crude prices rose above $66 a barrel amid these geopolitical tensions [4] Federal Reserve Insights - U.S. rate futures indicate a 94.1% chance of no rate change and a 5.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March FOMC meeting [6] - The FOMC minutes revealed that several policymakers suggested potential rate increases if inflation remains above target [5] - A majority of participants noted that downside risks to employment have moderated, while persistent inflation risks remain [5] Upcoming Economic Reports - U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data is expected to show a figure of 223K, down from 227K last week [6] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is anticipated to drop to 7.5 in February from 12.6 last month [7] - Trade Balance data is expected to show a narrowing deficit to -$55.5 billion in December from -$56.8 billion in November [7] - Pending home sales data is expected to rise +1.4% m/m in January after a -9.3% m/m drop in December [8] Corporate Earnings - Notable companies reporting quarterly figures include Walmart, Deere & Company, and Newmont [10] - Figma surged more than +11% in pre-market trading after posting strong Q4 results and guidance [16] - DoorDash climbed over +10% after reporting better-than-expected Q4 marketplace gross order value [16]

Core Insights - Uber Technologies, Inc. reported a 20% year-over-year revenue growth to $14.37 billion for fiscal Q4 2025, exceeding analyst expectations of $14.32 billion [1] - The company reported an adjusted EPS of 71 cents, which fell short of the analyst consensus estimate of 80 cents [1] Financial Performance - Revenue from Mobility increased to $8.20 billion, up 19% year-over-year [2] - Delivery revenue reached $4.89 billion, up 30% year-over-year, while Freight revenue remained flat at $1.27 billion year-over-year [2] - Gross Bookings grew 22% year-over-year to $54.14 billion, with Mobility Gross Bookings at $27.44 billion (up 20% Y/Y), Delivery Gross Bookings at $25.43 billion (up 26% Y/Y), and Freight Gross Bookings at $1.27 billion (down 1% Y/Y) [3] - Total trips increased by 22% year-over-year to 3.75 billion [3] - Monthly Active Platform Consumers reached 202 million, an 18% increase year-over-year [3] - Adjusted EBITDA was $2.49 billion, up 35% year-over-year, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 4.6%, up from 4.2% year-over-year [3] Cash Position - As of December 31, 2025, Uber held $7.6 billion in unrestricted cash and equivalents and generated $2.81 billion in free cash flow [4] Management Changes - Balaji Krishnamurthy has been appointed as the new CFO, effective February 16, 2026, succeeding Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah [5] - CEO Dara Khosrowshahi acknowledged the contributions of the outgoing CFO in achieving investment-grade status and other strategic initiatives [5] Management Commentary - The CEO highlighted record-breaking performance with over 200 million monthly users completing more than 40 million trips daily, indicating a strong consumer base [6] - The company is positioned for growth entering 2026, with significant cash flow and ambitions to become the largest facilitator of autonomous vehicle trips globally [6]

Core Viewpoint - Uber Technologies Inc. is projected to double in value by 2030, despite recent price target reductions from major financial institutions [1][2]. Group 1: Price Target Adjustments - UBS has lowered its price target for Uber from $122 to $111 while maintaining a Buy rating [1]. - Bank of America Securities reduced its price target from $96 to $93, also keeping a Buy rating, citing uncertainty regarding autonomous vehicles as a short-term pressure [2]. Group 2: Revenue and Market Position - Bank of America noted that consistent revenue growth and improved margins by 2025, along with a more predictable autonomous vehicle landscape, should drive valuation growth in the long term [2]. - BofA emphasized Uber's advantage in the autonomous vehicle market, particularly through its collaboration with Nvidia, which could accelerate the implementation of Level 4 autonomous technology [3]. Group 3: Business Segments - Uber operates in three main segments: Mobility, Delivery, and Freight, across various regions including the US, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific [4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, Uber achieved a gross bookings increase of 22% year-over-year, reaching an annual run rate of 15 billion trips and over 200 million monthly active users [4] - The company generated $8.7 billion in adjusted EBITDA, representing a 35% margin, and $9.8 billion in free cash flow, up 42% year-over-year [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The introduction of new products, such as the Moto product, has significantly contributed to user growth by attracting new segments [29] - The Reserve product has shown strong performance, particularly among suburban users seeking reliability for time-sensitive trips [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - 60% of Uber's mobility gross bookings are generated internationally, indicating a strong presence outside the U.S. [23] - The company noted that growth in less dense markets is approximately 1.5-2 times faster than in major cities, contributing to overall user growth [31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Uber is focusing on six strategic areas, including autonomous vehicles (AVs), which are seen as a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity [4][5] - The company aims to leverage its global scale and sophisticated marketplace technology to enhance its AV strategy and partnerships with various AV providers [15][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth potential of AVs, viewing them as a net positive for the overall market rather than a competitive threat [14] - The company is optimistic about maintaining user growth momentum, with a year-over-year increase in monthly active users from 14% to 18% [32] Other Important Information - Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah will step down as CFO, with Balaji Krishnamurthy taking over the role, indicating a transition in leadership [7][10] - The company is committed to returning 50% of free cash flow to shareholders while also making strategic investments in growth opportunities [42][43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of AV ramps from competitors on market share and profitability - Management views the introduction of AVs as a growth driver for markets, with bookings accelerating in cities like San Francisco and Austin [14][15] Question: Strategic priorities for maintaining user growth momentum - The strategy includes introducing new products, targeting different demographics, and expanding into less dense markets [29][30] Question: Concerns about AV technology leading to a winner-takes-most scenario - Management believes that the AV market will have multiple suppliers and that Uber's extensive network will provide a competitive advantage [38][41] Question: Capital allocation philosophy regarding free cash flow and investments - The company plans to balance reinvestments in growth with returning cash to shareholders, maintaining aggressive stock buybacks [42][43] Question: Factors driving acceleration in U.S. trips and gross bookings - Consistent pricing and insurance reforms are expected to enhance demand elasticity, contributing to growth [49][50] Question: Stages and timeline for deploying AVs on Uber's network - Initial deployments will focus on meeting consistent demand, with plans to scale as OEMs ramp production [75][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, Uber achieved a gross bookings increase of 22% year-over-year, reaching an annual run rate of 15 billion trips and over 200 million monthly active users [4] - The company generated $8.7 billion in adjusted EBITDA, representing a 35% margin, and $9.8 billion in free cash flow, up 42% year-over-year [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The introduction of new products, such as the Moto product, has significantly contributed to user growth by attracting new segments [29] - The Reserve product has shown higher margins and has successfully introduced new customers, particularly in suburban areas [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - 60% of Uber's mobility gross bookings are generated internationally, indicating a strong presence outside the U.S. [23] - The company noted that growth in less dense markets is approximately 1.5-2 times faster than in major cities, contributing to overall growth [31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Uber is focusing on six strategic areas, including autonomous vehicles (AVs), which are seen as a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity [4][5] - The company aims to leverage its global scale and sophisticated marketplace technology to enhance its AV strategy and partnerships with various AV manufacturers [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth potential of AVs, viewing them as a net positive for the overall market rather than a competitive threat [14] - The company is optimistic about maintaining user growth momentum, with a year-over-year increase in monthly active users from 14% to 18% [32] Other Important Information - Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah will step down as CFO, with Balaji Krishnamurthy taking over the role, indicating a transition in leadership [7][10] - The advertising business has exceeded previous growth targets, with potential for further expansion in delivery advertising [82] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of AVs on market share and profitability - Management views the introduction of AVs as a growth driver, with bookings in cities like San Francisco accelerating despite competition [14] Question: Strategic priorities for maintaining user growth - The strategy includes introducing new products, targeting different demographics, and expanding into less dense markets [29][30] Question: Capital return philosophy and free cash flow commitment - The company plans to maintain a 50% free cash flow return to shareholders while also investing in growth opportunities [43] Question: Factors driving acceleration in U.S. trips and gross bookings - Consistent pricing and insurance reforms are expected to enhance demand elasticity, contributing to growth [49] Question: Stages of AV deployment and scaling - Initial deployments will focus on consistent supply, with future scaling dependent on OEM production capabilities [75][76] Question: Long-term potential of delivery advertising - The advertising business is expected to grow significantly, with enterprise advertising catching up to SMBs [82]