能源化工日报 2026-02-27 2026/02/27 原油 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 INE 主力原油期货收跌 6.00 元/桶，跌幅 1.23%，报 483.60 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 53.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.81%，报 2987.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 4.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.12%，报 3460.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 15.99 百万桶至 435.80 百万桶，环比累库 3.81%；SPR 补库 0.00 百万桶至 415.44 百万桶，环比补库 0.00%；汽油库存去库 1.01 百万桶 至 254.83 百万桶，环比去库 0.40%；柴油库存累库 0.25 百万桶至 120.35 百万桶，环比累库 0.21%；燃料油库存去库 0.11 百万桶至 23.04 百万桶，环比去库 0.46%；航空煤油库存去库 徐绍祖 聚烯烃分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 18665881888 xusha ...

能源化工日报 2026-02-26 2026/02/26 原油 【行情资讯】 INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.60 元/桶，跌幅 0.33%，报 488.30 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 10.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.34%，报 2943.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 41.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.18%，报 3436.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据（PLATT 口径）出炉，汽油库存累库 1.91 百万桶至 9.89 百万桶， 环比累库 23.99%；柴油库存去库 0.30 百万桶至 3.03 百万桶，环比去库 9.12%；燃料油库存去 库 0.76 百万桶至 7.63 百万桶，环比去库 9.07%；总成品油累库 0.85 百万桶至 20.55 百万桶， 环比累库 4.30%。 【策略观点】 当前油价已经出现一定涨幅，并已经计价较高的地缘溢价。我们认为短期内，伊朗的断供缺口 仍存，但考虑到我们此前地缘系列专题指出委内瑞拉增产即将超预期的预判以及 OPEC 后续的 增产恢复预期，当前油价应予以逢高止盈，并以中期布局为主要操作思路。 甲醇 马桂炎（联系人） 聚酯分析师 从业资格号：F031 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current oil prices have risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. Given the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, previous short positions should take profits, and short - term observation is recommended [5]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differentials has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching, so short positions on rallies are recommended [8]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a hedging position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity reduction expectations, and export rush support PVC. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, positions can be gradually liquidated [21]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate is declining [24]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period of history. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil on dips after the Spring Festival [30]. - For PTA, it enters the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [33]. - For ethylene glycol, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high production. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and there is a risk of rebound [35]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 0.90 yuan/barrel, or 0.19%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 8.53 million barrels to 428.83 million barrels, a 2.03% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Lunan, Henan, and Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 10.00 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and MTO profit decreased by 10 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and other regions remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 1843 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 63 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. Bulls were optimistic due to macro, seasonal, and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.94%, and that of semi - steel tires was 73.42% [11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 52 yuan to 4938 yuan. The overall operating rate was 79.3%, an increase of 0.3%. The downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a decrease of 3.3%. Factory inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and social inventory was 122.7 tons (+ 2.1) [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China rose 87.5 yuan/ton to 6103 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene fell 150 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.80 million tons to 10.86 million tons [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6787 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6585 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a decrease of 0.27%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.67 million tons to 37.97 million tons [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6693 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a decrease of 0.01%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 1.49 million tons to 41.58 million tons [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 62 yuan to 7202 yuan. China's PX load was 92%, an increase of 2.5%. Asian load was 83.7%, an increase of 1.3%. In early February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 17.5 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons year - on - year [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 40 yuan to 5220 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 25 yuan to 5205 yuan. The PTA load was 74.8%, a decrease of 2.8%. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 232.6 million tons, an increase of 21 million tons [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 41 yuan to 3723 yuan. The spot price in East China fell 13 yuan to 3639 yuan. The supply - side load was 76.8%, an increase of 0.7%. Port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 93.5 million tons [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap caused by Iran's supply disruption still exists. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the current oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea should be mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it is believed that it does not contain a high geopolitical premium, and the price has support below. Those who shorted earlier can take profit at low levels [5]. - Regarding urea, the current situation of internal and external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected recovery of production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short at high levels [7]. - For rubber, the short - term price is determined by capital and has a low correlation with fundamentals. The price is expected to fluctuate significantly following the commodity market. It is recommended to trade short - term on the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. The strategy of buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 can resume building positions [9][12]. - For PVC, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral - to - low level. The supply reduction is small, and the production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is entering the off - season, and the demand is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. The overall situation is that supply exceeds demand in China, and the fundamentals are poor. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush sentiment support PVC. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene have declined, and the basis has widened. The spot price of styrene has risen, and the futures price has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high level, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has continued to accumulate significantly. It is recommended to gradually take profit [18][19]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene has not changed, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, which supports the price. It is the off - season, and the demand side is weak [21][22]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. There is no capacity expansion plan in the first half of 2026, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The downstream production rate fluctuates seasonally. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [23][24]. - For PX, the current load is at a high level, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, with a low overall load center. It is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The valuation center has risen, and the short - term profit is also high. The supply - demand structure of both PX and downstream PTA is strong after the Spring Festival, and the medium - term outlook is good. It is recommended to follow the oil price and go long at low levels [25][26]. - For PTA, the supply side maintains a high maintenance rate in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is affected by the off - season, with the load gradually decreasing. PTA enters the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. The processing fee has increased significantly, with a large proportion of expected factors. There is a risk of processing fee callback in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to go long at low levels and pay attention to the rhythm [28][29]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high, and the import volume in February is expected to remain high. The port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high production. The current valuation is neutral - to - low, and there is a risk of rebound due to the tense situation in Iran and the rebound of coal prices [31][32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 5.20 yuan/barrel, a 1.13% increase, at 463.50 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 48.00 yuan/ton, a 1.73% increase, at 2824.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 39.00 yuan/ton, a 1.20% increase, at 3285.00 yuan/ton. According to the US EIA weekly data, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.46 million barrels to 420.30 million barrels, a 0.82% decrease; the SPR increased by 0.21 million barrels to 415.21 million barrels, a 0.05% increase; gasoline inventory increased by 0.69 million barrels to 257.90 million barrels, a 0.27% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 5.55 million barrels to 127.37 million barrels, a 4.18% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.17 million barrels to 23.69 million barrels, a 0.72% increase; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.66 million barrels to 42.38 million barrels, a 1.54% decrease [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap caused by Iran's supply disruption still exists. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the current oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea should be mid - term layout [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 25 yuan/ton, in Lunan by - 10 yuan/ton, in Henan by 5 yuan/ton, in Hebei by - 30 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by 12.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 33.00 yuan/ton, at 2225 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 12 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is believed that methanol does not contain a high geopolitical premium, and the price has support below. Those who shorted earlier can take profit at low levels [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, in Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and in Northeast China by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 18 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 9 yuan/ton, at 1778 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of internal and external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected recovery of production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short at high levels [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market is priced by capital and has a low correlation with fundamentals. The bulls believe that the rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, the rubber price usually rises in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. The bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. As of January 29, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.41%, 0.29 percentage points lower than last week and 54.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 75.35%, 0.08 percentage points higher than last week and 53.03 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of January 25, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.2 tons, a 0.17% decrease; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 84.7 tons, a 0.4% decrease; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 42.5 tons, a 0.3% increase. As of January 30, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.09 tons to 59.12 tons, an 1.88% increase. In the spot market, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 15250 (+100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1950 (+20) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1955 (30) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10400 (+0) yuan, and North China butadiene rubber was 12400 (0) yuan [9][10][11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price is expected to fluctuate significantly following the commodity market. It is recommended to trade short - term on the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. The strategy of buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 can resume building positions [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 103 yuan, at 5052 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4850 (-50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 202 (+53) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 109 (-10) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 698 (-2) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 589 (-1) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 78.9%, a 0.2% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.6%, a 0.6% increase; the ethylene method was 75%, a 0.7% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.8%, a 0.1% decrease. The factory inventory was 29 tons (-1.8), and the social inventory was 120.6 tons (+2.9) [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral - to - low level. The supply reduction is small, and the production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is entering the off - season, and the demand is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. The overall situation is that supply exceeds demand in China, and the fundamentals are poor. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush sentiment support PVC. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6127 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7689 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88 yuan/ton; the basis was 211 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 188 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 182.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB units was - 79.45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.8 yuan/ton; the spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.28%, a decrease of 0.35%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 tons, an increase of 0.80 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.56%, a decrease of 1.84%; the PS operating rate was 55.60%, a decrease of 1.70%; the EPS operating rate was 53.26%, a decrease of 5.45%; the ABS operating rate was 66.10%, a decrease of 0.70% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene have declined, and the basis has widened. The spot price of styrene has risen, and the futures price has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high level, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has continued to accumulate significantly. It is recommended to gradually take profit [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6777 yuan/ton, a decrease of 141 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6740 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis was - 37 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 141 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a decrease of 0.27%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 tons, an increase of 5.67 tons; the trader inventory was 2.32 tons, a decrease of 0.23 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 33.73%, a decrease of 4.03%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 51 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene has not changed, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, which supports the price. It is the off - season, and the demand side is weak [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6676 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6730 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis was 54 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 125 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a decrease of 0.01%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 tons, an increase of 1.49 tons; the trader inventory was 18.32 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons; the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a decrease of 0.03 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 49.84%, a decrease of 2.24%. The LL - PP spread was 101 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 16 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 3 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. There is no capacity expansion plan in the first half of 2026, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The downstream production rate fluctuates seasonally. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 82 yuan, at 7098 yuan. The PX CFR fell 10 US dollars, at 892 US dollars. Converted according to the RMB central parity rate, the basis was - 47 yuan (+20), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 102 yuan (+14). In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 89.5%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 82.4%, a 0.8% increase. In terms of equipment, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical increased its load, and Fujian United Petrochemical's load fluctuated. The PTA load was 77.6%, a 1% increase. In terms of equipment, Sichuan Energy

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: In the short - term, the market rotation is accelerating, hot - plate persistence is poor, and trading volume is falling before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and bond market trading is expected to be stable. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The market is in a cautious short - covering and position - rebuilding stage after a technical oversold. It is recommended to wait and see, with the Shanghai gold main contract in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver in the range of 22000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with some having upward or downward trends based on supply - demand, policy, and cost factors [14][16][21]. - **Black Building Materials**: The black - building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track inventory changes, demand recovery, and policy adjustments [34]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy - chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is recommended to take profits on rallies, and some products are affected by supply - demand, cost, and geopolitical factors [64][66]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, the short - term outlook for live pigs is pessimistic, while the long - term outlook for cotton is positive [87][102]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The President of China had a phone call with the US President; a new satellite testing and launching technology plant was established; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to break through key technologies; the central bank focuses on credit market work [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have corresponding basis annualized ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the short - term [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: Contract prices changed on Wednesday; the central bank held a credit market meeting; the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors [8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose; the US ADP data indicated a slowdown in the labor market; the US Treasury's refinancing statement affected the bond market [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices fluctuated, LME copper inventory increased, and domestic spot was at a discount [13]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper [14]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined, and inventory and trading conditions changed [15]. - **Strategy**: If concerns about the US AI narrative ease, prices are expected to stabilize and rise, with reference price ranges [16]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fluctuated, and inventory and basis data changed [17][18]. - **Strategy**: The price is following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute. The trading center may return to the industrial logic [18]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined, and inventory and basis data changed [19]. - **Strategy**: The industry situation is weak, and the panic sentiment has eased to some extent [19]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and cost and supply - demand factors changed [20]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with reference price ranges [21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices fluctuated, and supply, demand, and inventory factors changed [22]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The spot index rose, and the futures contract price declined [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position attempt, with a reference price range for the futures contract [25]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The index rose, and inventory and basis data changed [26][27]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range and key factors to watch [28]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [29]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a bullish view, with a reference price range [29]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price rebounded, and inventory and trading volume data changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The price is supported in the short - term [31]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly, and inventory and trading volume data changed [33]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track multiple factors [34]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [35]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to steel mill restocking and iron - making rhythms [36][37]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and spot and basis data changed [38]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment and high - volatility risks [40][42]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [43]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with a reference price range [44]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [45]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly and stably in the short - term, with a reference price range [46]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: Prices rose slightly, and spot and basis data changed [47]. - **Strategy**: The market is affected by overall sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [49][50]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [51]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to production cuts and downstream adjustments [54]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [55]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to meetings and spot transactions [56]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The price is determined by funds, and there are different views on supply and demand [58]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and consider a spread trading strategy [62]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Futures prices rose [63]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [64]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [65]. - **Strategy**: The price has priced in most geopolitical premiums, and there is pressure on the upside [66]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [68]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals [69]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [70]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired, and it is advisable to take profits gradually [70]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [71]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. Pay attention to production capacity and start - up changes [72][73]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [74]. - **Strategy**: There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term, but there is a risk of rebound in the short - term [75]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [76]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. Be cautious of processing - fee corrections in the short - term and look for long - entry opportunities after the Spring Festival [77]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [78]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. Look for long - entry opportunities following crude oil in the medium - term [79]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [80]. - **Strategy**: The oil price may have bottomed out. The price is supported by reduced inventory, but the demand is in the off - season [81]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [82]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is relieved, and the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. Consider going long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [84]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: Pig prices fell, and supply - demand factors changed [86]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the short - term, and pay attention to long - term support [87]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices mostly fell, and supply - demand factors changed [88]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell in the near - term and long - term, with different logics [89]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fell slightly, and supply - demand data changed [90][91]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the price may be bottoming out [92]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [93][94]. - **Strategy**: The price may have bottomed out. Wait for a pull - back to go long [94]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The futures price rebounded slightly, and supply - demand data changed [95][98]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the harvest in February. The domestic price may have limited downside, and it is advisable to wait and see [99]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The futures price fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [100][101]. - **Strategy**: It fluctuates widely in the short - term and may rise in the long - term. Look for low - entry opportunities before the Spring Festival [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating to the precious metals and new energy sectors, and "Neutral" or "Wait-and-See" ratings to most other sectors [1] Core Viewpoints - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds remain abundant, and the stock index is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term volatility [1] - The bond market is favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1] - Metal prices, including copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to stabilize and rebound after the release of macro risks, although they are subject to various supply and demand factors and policy uncertainties [1] - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy. For example, palm oil is expected to be volatile and bullish, while cotton is in a situation of "support but no driver" [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by factors like crude oil prices, supply and demand fundamentals, and geopolitical situations. For instance, PTA and ethylene glycol prices have shown different trends due to various factors [1] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Stock index: Expected to consolidate after a volume-reduced rebound, with a long-term upward trend intact due to abundant funds and economic recovery [1] - Bond futures: Favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but short-term interest rate risks are highlighted [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: After a significant correction, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as macro risks are released, with industry fundamentals providing support [1] - Aluminum: Prices dropped due to rising macro risk aversion but are expected to recover as the supply narrative continues and risks are released [1] - Alumina: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure but are expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stabilizing, and prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk aversion [1] - Nickel: Short-term prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, but long-term high global inventories may still exert pressure. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1] - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the raw material end and repeated macro sentiment. Short-term trading is recommended [1] - Tin: Prices rebounded strongly after a mine accident and significant deleveraging, but high short-term volatility requires risk management [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Market sentiment is recovering, but strong US PMI data may slow the short-term upward momentum [1] - Platinum and palladium: Short-term support exists due to Trump's plan to establish a key mineral reserve and the EU's consideration of sanctions on Russian platinum exports [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon declined in December [1] - Polysilicon: In the off-season for new energy vehicles, but storage demand is strong. Prices have risen significantly and may need to correct [1] - Lithium carbonate: Expectations are strong, but the spot market is weak, and the continuation of price increases lacks momentum [1] Black Metals - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Unilateral long positions are advised to exit, and cash-and-carry arbitrage positions can be considered due to factors such as high production and inventory [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1] - Coke and coking coal: In the off-season, the focus is on capital sentiment, and opportunities to sell at high prices or establish cash-and-carry arbitrage positions are recommended [1] - Glass and soda ash: Weak current supply and demand are intertwined with strong expectations, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Expected to be volatile and bullish as the main consuming countries start purchasing and production areas may reduce production and inventory [1] - Cotton: Currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to factors such as policy, planting area, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a consensus on short positions due to global oversupply and increased domestic production, but the cost provides support at lower prices [1] - Grains: Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to correct as pre-holiday stocking ends and funds take profits [1] - Soybeans: Unilateral expectations are for a weakening trend due to factors such as expected rainfall in Argentina and sufficient Brazilian supply [1] - Pulp: It is advisable to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand after restocking [1] - Logs: The spot price is rising, and the futures price is expected to increase due to a decrease in arrivals and an increase in foreign quotes [1] - Hogs: The spot price is stabilizing, and demand is supported, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may ease. Prices are expected to correct in the short term [1] - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Profits are high, and the demand for catch-up construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan may be falsified [1] - Shanghai rubber: The raw material cost provides support, but downstream demand weakens before the festival, and the futures-spot price difference has widened [1] - BR rubber: The cost of butadiene provides support, and there is an expectation of increased exports in the long term. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with an upward trend in the long term [1] - PTA: The PX market is strong, driving up the prices of chemical products. Domestic PTA production is increasing, and the negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts is limited [1] - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence. Speculative demand has increased [1] - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply and demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure [1] - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease, but downstream negative feedback is significant, resulting in a mixed situation [1] - PE: The price has returned to a reasonable range, and demand is weak during the holiday after pre-holiday stocking [1] - PP: Supply pressure is high, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price has returned to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current fundamentals are poor, and there may be a rush to export [1] - LPG: The CP price is rising, and the demand side is short-term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] Shipping - Container shipping on the European route: Freight rates have peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines are expected to raise prices after the off-season in March [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply - disruption gap from Iran still exists, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and the subsequent production recovery of OPEC, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea is mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly restricts downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [5]. - For urea, the current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to short - allocate on rallies [8]. - For rubber, with the overall decline of commodities and large price fluctuations, it is recommended to trade on the short - term basis of the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. The position of buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 can be re - established [13]. - For PVC, the overall situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand persists. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export - rush sentiment support it, the weak fundamentals affect the industry pattern expectations. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant. The port inventory of styrene is continuously increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so profits can be gradually taken [19]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. The coal - based inventory has significantly decreased, supporting the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the raw material inventory of agricultural films may peak [22]. - For polypropylene, the cost - end forecast shows a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no capacity - expansion plans in H1 2026, and the demand is in seasonal fluctuation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [25]. - For PX, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so PX is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The valuation center has risen, and the short - term profit is also high. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following the crude oil price [28]. - For PTA, the supply side maintains high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is affected by the off - season. PTA is in the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. Although the processing fee has increased significantly, there is a risk of correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the import volume in February is expected to be high. The port inventory will continue to accumulate. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction in the mid - term. The valuation is currently moderately high year - on - year, and there is an expectation of further valuation compression in the mid - term without further production cuts in China [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures contract closed down 23.30 yuan/barrel, a decline of 4.93%, at 449.40 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products also declined. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the arrival inventory decreased by 2.48 million barrels to 201.25 million barrels, a 1.22% decline. Gasoline, diesel, and total refined oil commercial inventories increased [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas decreased. The main futures contract decreased by 42.00 yuan/ton, reported at 2247 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 125 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot prices in some regions decreased, and the overall basis was reported at 0 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 17 yuan/ton, reported at 1770 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities declined significantly with large price fluctuations. The short - term market is determined by funds, with low correlation to fundamentals. The long and short sides have different views. The overall situation of tire enterprises' production and inventory is complex, and spot prices of some products decreased [10][11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract increased by 57 yuan, reported at 5071 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou increased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The overall production rate increased slightly, while the downstream demand decreased slightly. Factory and social inventories changed in different directions [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene increased, and the basis decreased. The spot price of styrene decreased, while the futures price increased, and the basis weakened. Supply - side indicators such as production rate and inventory changed, and demand - side indicators such as the weighted production rate of three S decreased [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream production rate increased, and production and trader inventories decreased. The downstream average production rate decreased slightly, and the LL5 - 9 spread decreased [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price increased by 16 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream production rate decreased slightly, and production, trader, and port inventories decreased. The downstream average production rate decreased slightly, and the LL - PP spread and PP5 - 9 spread decreased [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 36 yuan, reported at 7080 yuan. The CFR price increased, and the basis and 3 - 5 spread changed. The production loads in China and Asia increased. Some devices are in the process of restarting. The import volume from South Korea decreased, and the inventory increased [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 58 yuan, reported at 5150 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The production load remained unchanged, some downstream devices were under maintenance or restarting, and the terminal production load decreased. The social inventory increased, and the processing fee changed [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract remained unchanged, reported at 3767 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The production load increased, some devices at home and abroad were restarted, the downstream production load decreased, and the port inventory increased [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap due to Iran's supply disruption, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, with a mid - term layout as the main operation idea [2] - For methanol, the current price has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums, which strongly suppresses the downstream. The negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [5] - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so it is advisable to short at high levels [7] - For rubber, with significant commodity price drops and large volatility, it is recommended to conduct short - term trading based on the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. The position of buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 can be restored [12] - For PVC, the industry's comprehensive profit is at a relatively low - to - neutral level, with little reduction in supply and high production. Domestic demand is entering the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. Although short - term export incentives exist, the overall domestic supply - demand situation shows strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to subsequent changes in production capacity and operation [14] - For pure benzene and styrene, the current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. With the supply still abundant, port inventories increasing, and demand weakening in the off - season, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and profits can be gradually taken [18] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has fallen, and there is still room for downward valuation. With the supply pressure relieved and demand weakening in the off - season, the price may be supported [21] - For polypropylene, the EIA forecast indicates a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and supply surplus may ease. With no new production capacity planned in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved, but the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch, and it is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [23] - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to be in a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [25] - For PTA, the supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is weakening in the off - season, leading to stock - building during the Spring Festival. The processing fee has increased significantly, with a large expected component. There is a risk of a short - term correction, but there is still room for upward valuation after the Spring Festival, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long [27] - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and imports in February are expected to remain at a high level. The port stock - building cycle will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of high inventory and high operation. The current valuation is moderately high year - on - year, and there is an expectation of valuation compression in the mid - term without further domestic production cuts [30] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 33.90 yuan/barrel, a 7.02% decline, at 449.00 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined, with high - sulfur fuel oil down 202.00 yuan/ton (7.01%) to 2679.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil down 197.00 yuan/ton (5.92%) to 3128.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed mixed inventory changes in refined products, with an overall reduction of 0.93 million barrels in refined oil inventory to 46.83 million barrels, a 1.94% decrease [1] - **Strategy View**: Take profit at high levels in the short term and focus on mid - term layout [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices showed different changes, with Jiangsu down 25 yuan/ton, and others having smaller or no changes. The main contract of the futures fell 92.00 yuan/ton to 2252 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 144 yuan [4] - **Strategy View**: The current price has priced in geopolitical premiums, suppressing the downstream, and the negative feedback may continue [5] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas increased by 10 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract fell 3 yuan/ton to 1787 yuan/ton [6] - **Strategy View**: The import window has opened, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, short at high levels [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities declined significantly with large volatility. The short - term market is determined by funds, with low correlation to fundamentals. The long and short sides have different views. The total steel - tire operating load of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.41% as of January 29, 2026, slightly down from last week but up significantly from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire operating load was 75.35%, slightly up from last week and also up significantly from last year. China's natural rubber social inventory increased [10] - **Strategy View**: Conduct short - term trading based on the market, set stop - losses, and restore the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 49 yuan to 5014 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou was 4780 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 234 yuan/ton (up 49 yuan). The 5 - 9 spread was - 117 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan). The overall operating rate was 78.9%, with the calcium - carbide method up and the ethylene method down. Factory inventory decreased, while social inventory increased [13] - **Strategy View**: The industry's fundamentals are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support the price, and attention should be paid to subsequent changes in production capacity and operation [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene fell, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene rose, while the futures price fell, with the basis strengthening. The upstream operating rate of styrene decreased, and the port inventory increased. The demand - side operating rate of three S products decreased [17] - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. Gradually take profit [18] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price fell 136 yuan/ton to 6878 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 100 yuan/ton to 6850 yuan/ton. The basis was - 28 yuan/ton (strengthened by 36 yuan). The upstream operating rate increased, and production enterprise inventory decreased [20] - **Strategy View**: The crude oil price may have bottomed, and the spot price of polyethylene has fallen. There is still room for downward valuation, but the supply pressure is relieved, and demand is weakening in the off - season [21] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price fell 110 yuan/ton to 6714 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 25 yuan/ton to 6740 yuan/ton. The basis was 26 yuan/ton (strengthened by 85 yuan). The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories at various levels decreased [22] - **Strategy View**: The supply surplus may ease, and there is no new production capacity planned in H1 2026. The overall inventory pressure is high, and in the long term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 238 yuan to 7044 yuan. The CFR price fell 22 dollars to 891 dollars. The load in China and Asia increased. Some devices were restarting. The inventory at the end of December increased [24] - **Strategy View**: The current load is high, and it is expected to be in a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [25] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 178 yuan to 5092 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 185 yuan to 5095 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan). The PTA load remained unchanged, while the downstream load decreased. Social inventory increased, and the processing fee decreased [26] - **Strategy View**: The supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is weakening in the off - season, leading to stock - building during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of a short - term correction in the processing fee, but there is still room for upward valuation after the Spring Festival [27] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 146 yuan to 3767 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 113 yuan to 3722 yuan. The basis was - 98 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan). The supply - side load increased, while the downstream load decreased. Port inventory increased [29] - **Strategy View**: The overall load is still high, and imports in February are expected to remain at a high level. The port stock - building cycle will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of high inventory and high operation [30]