Core Viewpoint - The private credit market is facing significant challenges due to bearish sentiments and concerns regarding the impact of current headlines related to SaaS and liquidity squeeze on the market [1]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - Market participants believe that the current headlines will lead to actual consequences for the private credit space [1]. - There is a prevailing fear that these consequences will negatively affect the market dynamics and investor confidence [1]. Group 2: Industry Expertise - Roberts Berzins has over a decade of experience in financial management, focusing on helping top-tier corporates with financial strategies and large-scale financings [1]. - Berzins has contributed to institutionalizing the REIT framework in Latvia to enhance liquidity in pan-Baltic capital markets [1]. - His work includes developing national SOE financing guidelines and frameworks to channel private capital into affordable housing [1].

Group 1: AI Market Sentiment - The AI hype has diminished as investors express concerns about the technology's disruptive potential on businesses and the economy, leading to market unease [1] - The tech sector, particularly software, has experienced significant sell-offs, exacerbated by updates from companies like Anthropic and labor market concerns [1][2] - Experts note a violent sell-off in tech stocks, with investors feeling precarious about future developments in the AI sector [2][6] Group 2: Private Credit Concerns - There are growing worries about the private credit market, with analysts suggesting a "death bomb" scenario that could lead to a near-term slowdown [7][9] - Recent headlines surrounding Blue Owl Capital have reignited concerns reminiscent of the pre-2007 financial crisis, compounding market anxieties [8][10] - Big banks are also at risk due to their exposure to private credit and AI disruptions, with potential vulnerabilities highlighted by comparisons to past financial crises [10][11] Group 3: Physical AI Opportunities - Physical AI, which includes technologies like automated machinery and self-driving cars, is projected to be a significant growth area, with a total addressable market for warehouse automation expected to reach $112 billion by 2029 [13] - Analysts believe that companies adopting physical AI will find substantial opportunities, while those that do not may face significant threats [14] - The current market rotation towards cyclical stocks may expose investors to risks associated with physical AI disruptions in the industrials sector [15] Group 4: Software Sector Outlook - The software sector has been one of the hardest-hit areas during the tech sell-off, with expectations of uneven recovery [16][17] - Companies that went public during the SaaS boom and lack a strong data moat or integration into larger platforms are at risk of consolidation or elimination [17][18] - Analysts predict further declines for software companies that are vulnerable to replacement by agentic AI technologies [18]

Core Viewpoint - Apollo Global Management's private credit fund, MidCap Financial Investment Corp., is facing challenges in its loan portfolio, leading to a reduction in its dividend and a re-evaluation of asset values [1] Group 1: Dividend and Asset Valuation - MidCap Financial has reduced its quarterly dividend from 38 cents to 31 cents per share [2] - The company reported a roughly 3% markdown in its asset base, attributed to underperforming legacy loans and a changing interest rate environment [2] - A new $100 million stock repurchase plan has been authorized by the Board of Directors [2] Group 2: Portfolio Composition and Risks - As of December 31, 2025, software represents only 11.4% of MidCap Financial's portfolio at fair value, indicating lower exposure compared to the broader BDC industry [3] - The company emphasizes a portfolio resilient to AI-related risks, focusing on businesses with long-standing customer relationships [3] Group 3: Market Performance and Investor Sentiment - MidCap Financial's stock has decreased by 8.5% on Friday and 14.5% this month, reflecting investor concerns [4] - Apollo's stock has also declined by 20% this month, marking its worst performance since 2011 [4]

Let's bring in Dan Res Muen. He's the founder and portfolio manager at Verdad Capital. Dan, really appreciate it.And it's important to set the stage here because in some ways there were going to be problems or or the sort of problems were going to come home to roost in private equity one way or the other. And we thought it was going to be from higher interest rates. you know that that in many ways was going to be the no one really saw oh by the way the thing they invested in private equity and credit over t ...

Blue Owl turmoil adds to strain in $2 trillion US private credit sector | ReutersSkip to main content[Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionalsLearn more aboutRefinitiv]A logo for Blue Owl Capital is displayed on a midtown Manhattan office building in New York City, U.S., February 24, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid [Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab]- Companies- Summary- Private credit market faces increased competition and valuation concerns- AI advances threaten software ...

Bain Capital Specialty Finance (NYSE:BCSF) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 27, 2026 08:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAmit Joshi - CFOKatherine Schneider - Managing Director of Investor RelationsMichael Ewald - CEOMike Boyle - PresidentOperatorThank you for your continued patience. Your meeting will begin shortly. If you need assistance at any time, please press star zero and a member of our team will be happy to help you. All sites on hold, we appreciate your patience and ask that you please continue to stand ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net investment income per share for Q4 was $0.46, representing an annualized yield of 10.6% on equity, covering the base dividend of $0.42 per share by 110% [5][6] - Q4 earnings per share were $0.43, with an annualized return on equity of 9.9%. For the full year 2025, net investment income per share was $1.88, or 11.1% return on equity [6][27] - Total investment income for Q4 was $68.2 million, up from $67.2 million in Q3, driven by high-quality investment income primarily from contractual cash income [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - New investment fundings in Q4 totaled $167.9 million, with $68 million into 11 new companies and $99.6 million into 82 existing companies [19] - The investment portfolio at fair value was approximately $2.5 billion across 203 portfolio companies, with 64% in first lien debt [21][22] - The weighted average yield on the investment portfolio was 10.8% at cost and 10.9% at fair value, down from 11.1% and 11.2% respectively [22][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The weighted average spread on new first lien originations during Q4 was 535 basis points, compared to approximately 500 basis points for average sponsored middle market first lien loans [9][10] - Median net leverage across borrowers was stable at 4.7x, with median interest coverage at 2.0x [16][23] - Non-accruals remained low at 1.5% at amortized cost and 0.8% at fair value, stable quarter-over-quarter [17][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on the core middle market, aiming for greater spread premiums while maintaining conservative capital structures [9][10] - The investment philosophy emphasizes rigorous fundamental due diligence and selective underwriting, particularly in technology and software sectors [12][13] - The company aims to leverage Bain Capital's expertise across various sectors to enhance investment opportunities [10][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a constructive economic backdrop for new investments, with increased deal activity in the second half of 2025 [7][8] - The company anticipates facing earnings headwinds from a lower rate environment but sees potential growth levers from joint ventures and increased M&A deal volumes [18] - Management expressed confidence in maintaining the regular dividend of $0.42 per share, supported by healthy levels of spillover income [18] Other Important Information - The company declared a special dividend of $0.15 per share and an additional $0.03 per share special Q4 dividend [28] - The net asset value per share was $17.23, down from $17.40, primarily due to one-time special dividends [27][28] - Liquidity at quarter-end was strong at $690 million, including $604 million of undrawn capacity on the revolver credit facility [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Were there any questions from analysts? - There were no questions from analysts during the call, and the company thanked participants for their time [33]

(Bloomberg) -- A private credit fund jointly managed by Future Standard and KKR & Co. plunged after cutting its dividend more than forecast, as earnings declined amid lower interest rates and losses from troubled investments.FS KKR Capital Corp., a business development company that makes direct loans, tumbled as much as 18% Thursday, the most intraday since 2020. The BDC slashed its quarterly distribution to 48 cents a share from 70 cents, a deeper cut than the 55 cents executives had previously signaled. A ...

Top executives at some of Europe’s biggest insurance companies acknowledged widespread concern about private credit while seeking to reassure investors about their own investments in the asset class.Markets are worried “that when things don’t go well in the economy, there could be some fallout from private credit,” AXA SA Chief Executive Officer Thomas Buberl said Thursday on Bloomberg TV. Buberl also said that AXA’s exposure to the asset class is “far below” that of the competition because the firm had bee ...

分享 reface 前⾔ at if our AI bullishness continues to be right...and what if that's actually bearish? 果我们的对 AI 的乐观持续正确……而这反而成了利空，会怎样？ at follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn't bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. e sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that's been relatively underexplored. Our nd Alap Shah posed the question, and together we brainstormed the answer. We wrote this t, and he's written two others you can find here. 下情景为设想，而非预测。这并非唱空轰动或人工智能末日主义同人文。本文唯一 的，是对一个相对较少被探讨的情景进行建模。我 ...