2028 年，AI 将导致经济危机？ 前几天，美国的独立金融研究机构 CitriniResearch 发布了一篇《 2028 年全球智能危机 》 报告。 核心观点简单粗暴：AI 要是再这么能干下去，人类经济就要顶不住了。 影响力更是不容小觑，文章里面可汗大点兵，点到的公司比如金融领域的 Visa，送外卖的 DoorDash，做 SaaS 的 Service Now 等，股价纷纷大跳水。 报告一推出就爆火，现在阅读量已经破了千万。 虽然《 2028 年全球智能危机 》用倒叙的手法从 2028 回顾 2026，写得跟科幻小说似的，但说实话，差评君看完有点笑不出来。 不是因为它一定会发生，而是因为它的逻辑，是有点说服力的。 咱也带大家，再简单过一下这篇雄文。 文章其实很好理解，当 AI 能一个顶十个，成本只有人工的零头，还全年无休、从不摸鱼、不会请假，你觉得老板会怎么选？ 很快啊，客服会被换成机器人，设计交给模型，程序员用 AI 写代码，市场部一人顶三人。这一波降本增效的操作，让资本家赚的盆满钵满。 然而，原本花钱的人却一个一个被优化掉，大伙儿兜里空空，渐渐谁也不敢消费了。 消费者没钱，企业营收当然要下滑。他们只能 ...

2028 年，AI 将导致经济危机？ 前几天，美国的独立金融研究机构 CitriniResearch 发布了一篇《 2028 年全球智能危机 》 报告。 核心观点简单粗暴：AI要是再这么能干下去，人类经济就要顶不住了。 报告一推出就爆火，现在阅读量已经破了千万。 影响力更是不容小觑，文章里面可汗大点兵，点到的公司比如金融领域的 Visa，送外卖的 DoorDash，做 SaaS 的 Service Now 等，股价纷纷大跳水。 虽然《 2028 年全球智能危机 》用倒叙的手法从 2028 回顾 2026，写得跟科幻小说似的，但说实话，差评君看完有点笑不出来。 不是因为它一定会发生，而是因为它的逻辑，是有点说服力的。 咱也带大家，再简单过一下这篇雄文。 文章其实很好理解，当 AI能一个顶十个，成本只有人工的零头，还全年无休、从不摸鱼、不会请假，你觉得老板会怎么选？ 然而，原本花钱的人却一个一个被优化掉，大伙儿兜里空空，渐渐谁也不敢消费了。 于是一种很魔幻的 " 幽灵 GDP" 出现了：企业营收在增加，GDP 看着挺好看，可消费在收缩，订单在变少，真实经济活动在实打实的降温。那些一开始 吃到 AI 甜头的企业发现 ...

近日，独立研究机构Citrini Research发布了一份报告，阐释人工智能对全球经济的潜在风险，美股因此引发广泛讨论，甚至出现恐慌性抛售。配送、支 付、软件类股票周一大幅下挫，黑石、KKR等被报告点名的全球PE巨头也未能幸免。 不仅如此，就在几天前，美国资产管理公司蓝鸮资本（Blue Owl）宣布不得不出售资产，以满足投资者集中赎回某只基金的需求，引发市场紧张。这一事 件也导致包括阿波罗、KKR和黑石在内的多家PE巨头股价应声下跌。 在报告所描绘的危机传导路径中，AI技术迭代将直接让SaaS行业护城河消失。2025年到2027年，AI从辅助开发升级为可内部复制SaaS功能，最终引发行 业差异化崩溃、价格触底，依赖"经常性收入（ARR）"的SaaS企业商业模式彻底失效。 报告还假设，2027年全球知名CRM服务商Zendesk的50亿美元私募信贷违约，将成为史上最大规模的同类事件。直接原因在于AI客服替代人工后，企业不 再续订相关软件，而这一事件会引发连锁反应：SaaS定价崩溃导致LBO模型破产，进而造成私募信贷违约、资产估值暴跌的恶性循环。 该警示精准命中部分PE机构的私募信贷业务，它们是这个市场的重要参 ...

每经记者｜李蕾 每经编辑｜陈柯名 彭水萍 近日，独立研究机构Citrini Research发布了一份报告，阐释人工智能对全球经济的潜在风险，美股因此引发广泛讨论，甚至出现恐慌性抛售。配送、支 付、软件类股票周一大幅下挫，黑石、KKR等被报告点名的全球PE巨头也未能幸免。 不仅如此，就在几天前，美国资产管理公司蓝鸮资本（Blue Owl）宣布不得不出售资产，以满足投资者集中赎回某只基金的需求，引发市场紧张。这一事 件也导致包括阿波罗、KKR和黑石在内的多家PE巨头股价应声下跌。 2月19日至23日，黑石三个交易日股价累计下跌超15%，KKR累计跌幅也超11%，跌幅远超市场预期。 站在一级市场投资机构的角度，到底发生了什么？ 假想报告的警示： AI或触发私募信贷连锁"崩塌" Citrini Research这份题为《2028全球智能危机》的报告并非当下市场分析，而是以2028年6月为视角的"金融史思想实验"。 报告在核心论点中指出，AI的通缩力量若失控，将成为针对"中介"和"白领工资"的经济瘟疫，而私募信贷市场崩塌，会是金融系统危机的核心导火索。这 份报告虽为假想推演，也成为此次美股波动的重要情绪推手。 在报告 ...

就在这两天，由 CitriniResearch 执笔的文章《2028年全球智能危机》在美国投资者间引发病毒式传播，阅读一夜间已迅速达到千万级！ 这篇文章通过推演，构想了两年后Agent大规模普及，对人类社会与经济结构的剧烈冲击： 在2028年，尽管人工智能带来的生产力提升超出预期，但由于其彻底颠覆了传统白领就业市场，最终引发了「经济瘟疫」。 企业利润与算力霸权大幅扩张，但普通家庭收入急剧收缩，导致核心消费动力衰竭，形成了仅有数字繁荣而缺乏广泛收益的「幽灵GDP」。 同时，随着SaaS服务、中介行业及传统金融支付模式因「交易摩擦消失」而面临结构性崩塌，风险经由私募信贷市场蔓延至人寿保险与住房按揭领域，最 终可能将全球经济拖入系统性重定价的深渊。 文章的核心逻辑链条是： 第一轮负反馈发生在实体经济：AI能力提升 → 裁员增加、工资降级 → 消费疲弱 → 企业利润被挤压 → 企业购买更多AI能力 → AI能力继续提升。 随后它进入金融层面：收入降低开始侵蚀房贷 → 银行损失、收紧信贷 → 财富效应破裂 → 反馈回路加速。 而这两条回路又被迟缓的政策响应进一步放大。 市场对此推演迅速作出反应。 截至昨日收盘，文中点名 ...

Core Insights - Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) has shown strong performance since the last coverage, with a positive outlook driven by a combination of factors [1] Company Overview - EPD has been a part of the income portfolio for several years, indicating a long-term investment strategy [1] - The company operates in sectors that are perceived to offer significant growth opportunities, particularly in energy and minerals [1] Analyst Background - The analyst has over a decade of experience in financial markets, primarily in hedge funds, and has a rigorous approach to investment [1] - The analyst has a strong focus on technology sectors, specifically SaaS and cloud businesses, while also exploring energy and minerals sectors [1]

Core Insights - Wakefit has reported a profitable Q3 FY26, achieving record quarterly revenues and significant margin improvements despite seasonal discounts and a CFO transition [1][4] Financial Performance - Profits reached ₹31.9 Cr compared to a loss of ₹2.4 Cr in Q3 FY25 [8] - Revenue from operations increased by 9.4% YoY to ₹421.3 Cr [8] - EBITDA improved by 158% YoY to ₹70.3 Cr, with margins expanding to 53.8% [8] - Total expenses rose marginally by 0.4% YoY to ₹396.7 Cr [8] Margin Expansion - The transition to profitability in Q3 was driven by gross margin expansion that offset modest top-line growth and a one-off labor code expense [2] - Operating leverage across core categories contributed to the margin improvement, despite temporary demand shifts due to GST changes [2] Omnichannel Strategy - Wakefit is diversifying beyond pure e-commerce, with own channels driving the majority of sales, enhancing pricing control and customer data depth [3] - The company has expanded its marketplace presence and opened new company-owned stores to increase reach [3] - Mattresses remain the primary revenue driver, while furniture and furnishings are gradually increasing their share [3] Post-IPO Stability - Wakefit has shown resilience post-IPO, attributed to ongoing offline store rollouts and a structured public issue that balanced fresh capital with an offer for sale (OFS) [4] - The market is closely monitoring Wakefit's ability to maintain profitability in upcoming quarters [4]

Earnings Reports Overview - A high-volume slate of earnings reports from the technology, consumer discretionary, and energy sectors is scheduled, which will provide insights into current market momentum and investor sentiment [1] - Companies such as Monday.com Ltd. and Pagaya Technologies Ltd. have already reported their earnings before the market opened on February 9 [1] Key Earnings Estimates - Analysts expect a commission-free brokerage platform to announce an EPS of 63 cents, reflecting a 16% increase from the same period last year, and quarterly revenue of $1.33 billion, up from $1.01 billion last year, marking a 4.7% increase compared to the third quarter [2] - Nebius Group N.V. is anticipated to report a loss of $1.14 per share and revenue of $246.05 million [3] Notable Company Performances - AppLovin shares have declined over 33% year-to-date, indicating potential challenges in the consumer staple and tech sectors [3] - Coinbase Global, Inc. is expected to report earnings of 68 cents per share on revenue of $1.86 billion, with a focus on offsetting a projected 33% drop in transaction revenue through its stablecoin and subscription services [5]

Core Insights - The ability to pass on input costs to customers without impacting the income statement is a key quality for downstream companies like Constellium SE (CSTM) [1] Group 1: Analyst Background - The analyst has over a decade of experience in financial markets, primarily in a hedge fund in Rotterdam, and has progressed as an analyst [1] - The analyst maintains rigorous standards for investment and focuses on sectors such as technology, specifically SaaS and cloud businesses, as well as energy and minerals [1] - The energy and minerals sectors are viewed as offering significant growth opportunities and are engaging areas for research [1]

Core Insights - The AI industry is shifting from a focus on foundational computing power to the large-scale commercialization of applications, driven by significant reductions in computing costs and advancements in large model capabilities [2] - The SaaS industry is undergoing a value reassessment, with traditional lightweight SaaS tools facing risks of being replaced by AI-native capabilities, while specialized SaaS software that deeply integrates AI and possesses strong data barriers in niche markets is gaining capital attention [2] Industry Trends - Traditional SaaS companies are challenged by the need to evolve from efficiency-enhancing tools to capabilities that directly convert AI into productivity, necessitating a complete reconstruction of technology architecture and business models [2] - The next phase of AI development is expected to focus on vertical applications, leveraging structured private data that SaaS companies possess, which provides them with a competitive moat [2] Company Strategy - The company has accumulated thousands of clients in the engineering sector, using their private data as a foundation for AI applications, which allows for immediate results [3] - The transformation path of the company reflects a broader trend in the SaaS industry, moving from tool provision to delivering delegated capabilities that proactively manage end-to-end workflows [3] - The company aims to collaborate with leading firms for foundational large model capabilities rather than developing its own, focusing on its strengths in specific scenarios, data, and customer bases [3] Future Outlook - The case of the company serves as a guiding example for vertical software firms in the AI era, emphasizing that deep industry knowledge and valuable data assets create a more robust competitive advantage than algorithms alone [3] - The success of the company's strategic upgrade will depend on its ability to continuously convert data advantages into perceivable and monetizable business benefits for clients [3]