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Summary of BYDE (0285.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: BYDE (0285.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$76.1 billion / $9.7 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$67.1 billion / $8.6 billion - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - The global smartphone Total Addressable Market (TAM) for 2026E/27E has been reduced due to rising memory prices, impacting growth expectations for smartphone manufacturers [1][4] - Global leaders like Apple are expected to outperform due to their scale and consumer purchasing power, while Chinese brands face challenges due to price sensitivity [1][17] - Smartphone shipments are projected to decline by 6% YoY in 2026E, with a recovery of +2% YoY in 2027E [17] Company Performance and Financials - BYDE's revenue estimates have been revised down by 9%/11%/18% for 2025E/26E/27E, primarily due to lower revenues from Android smartphone assembly and casing [19] - Revenue projections for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are now Rmb 185,660 million, Rmb 201,492 million, and Rmb 217,307 million respectively [21] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 7.4% in 2025E to 8.9% in 2028E, driven by a shift towards higher-margin components [18][22] Business Segments - **Automotive Electronics**: Expected to grow at a CAGR of 23% from 2026E to 2028E, despite a projected 8% YoY decline in automotive shipments in 2H25 [18] - **Apple Assembly and Casing**: Revenue from Apple is expected to increase, reflecting market share gains despite the overall smartphone market challenges [19] - **Android Smartphone Assembly**: Revenue is expected to decline due to fierce competition and lower demand [19][22] Valuation and Rating Changes - Target price has been reduced to HK$40 from HK$53.08, reflecting slower growth and less relative upside compared to peers [1][26] - BYDE has been downgraded to a Neutral rating from Buy due to underperformance in the competitive smartphone market [1][26] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: Better-than-expected smartphone demand, faster expansion into Apple and automotive electronics, and quicker contributions from new AI server businesses [1][26] - **Downside Risks**: Weaker smartphone market demand, increased competition in automotive electronics, and slower-than-expected growth in AI server components [31][32] Financial Metrics - **EPS**: Expected to grow from Rmb 1.89 in 2024 to Rmb 3.01 in 2027 [15] - **P/E Ratio**: Projected to be 15.6 in 2024, decreasing to 10.0 by 2027 [12] - **Dividend Yield**: Expected to increase from 1.9% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2027 [12] Conclusion - BYDE is navigating a challenging smartphone market with a strategic focus on expanding into higher-margin segments like automotive electronics and AI server components. The company faces significant risks from market dynamics but has opportunities for growth through its partnerships with leading brands like Apple. The revised target price and neutral rating reflect a cautious outlook amid these challenges.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, total revenue reached $834 million, the second highest in the company's history, with a year-over-year increase of approximately 2 times compared to 2021 levels of $425 million [16] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was a record high of $589 million, nearly 3 times the 2021 level of $208 million [17] - Non-GAAP EPS for 2025 was $15.31 per share, more than 4 times the $3.73 per share reported in 2021 [17] - In Q4 2025, total revenue was $158 million, exceeding the high end of the outlook of $144-148 million [15] - Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $88 million, exceeding the high end of the outlook of $68-76 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 56% [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Smartphone revenue for 2025 was just below $680 million, up 14% year-over-year, marking an all-time high [7] - Annualized recurring revenue (ARR) increased to $582 million, up 24% year-over-year [5] - The company signed new licensing agreements with major smartphone vendors, including Vivo and Honor, and renewed agreements with Xiaomi, Samsung, Sharp, and Seiko [6][7] - In the CE and IoT program, the company signed a new agreement with HP, covering about half of the global PC market [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has now licensed eight of the top ten largest smartphone manufacturers, covering about 85% of the overall market [6] - The licensing agreements signed since 2021 have a total contract value of more than $4.6 billion [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow its licensing pipeline, particularly in the Video Service Licensing Program and AI research capabilities [4] - The focus is on expanding the patent portfolio and advancing technologies related to 6G and next-generation video codecs [4] - The company emphasizes the importance of AI in enhancing network efficiency and video quality, with a recent acquisition of AI startup Deep Render to strengthen its capabilities [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's position to drive shareholder value in 2026, with expectations for total revenue in the range of $675-775 million and adjusted EBITDA of $381-477 million [18] - The company anticipates further increases in ARR, aiming to reach $1 billion by 2030 [19] - Management highlighted the importance of ongoing litigation efforts to protect intellectual property and secure fair compensation for investments in research [10][36] Other Important Information - The company received recognition from multiple third parties, including being named one of America's greatest companies by Newsweek and the number one most successful mid-cap company in America for 2026 by Forbes [13] - The company will showcase its technology at the Mobile Congress in Barcelona, focusing on 6G and AI innovations [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance for Q1 revenue and recurring fees - Management confirmed that the guidance for Q1 includes $50-55 million of catch-up revenue, indicating a decrease in recurring fees due to expirations, but noted that two-thirds of the $92 million expired contracts have been renewed [24][25] Question: Timeline for litigation with Disney and Amazon - Management reported positive outcomes in the Disney case with preliminary injunctions in Brazil and Germany, with further trials expected in the US and UPC later in the year [26][27] - The Amazon case is in earlier stages, with multiple jurisdictions involved [27] Question: Litigation costs outlook - Management indicated an expected increase in litigation expenses for Q1 and throughout 2026, which is factored into the full-year guidance [29] Question: Details on the consumer electronic device agreement - The agreement with the social media company is a device agreement that licenses radio assets and Wi-Fi, but is not expected to be a high-volume agreement [33] Question: Differences in litigation for streaming services - Management noted that while they prefer negotiations, the streaming industry is relatively new for them, requiring more time to demonstrate the strength of their patent portfolio [42]

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Performance - U.S. stocks traded lower, with the Dow Jones index falling more than 400 points, down 0.87% to 48,646.87 [1] - The NASDAQ decreased by 0.88% to 23,476.27, and the S&P 500 dropped 0.65% to 6,923.38 [1] - Consumer staples shares gained by 0.3%, while materials stocks fell by 1.7% [1] Group 2: Apple Inc. Financial Results - Apple Inc. reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $143.76 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $138.42 billion [2] - The company reported earnings of $2.84 per share, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.66 per share [2] Group 3: Commodity Market Updates - Oil prices increased by 0.4% to $65.66, while gold prices decreased by 6.6% to $5,001.80 [3] - Silver prices fell by 18.7% to $93.01, and copper prices dropped by 3.2% to $6.0045 [3] Group 4: European Market Performance - European shares showed positive performance, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising 0.60% [4] - Spain's IBEX 35 Index increased by 1.64%, London's FTSE 100 rose by 0.37%, Germany's DAX gained 1.02%, and France's CAC 40 rose by 0.81% [4] Group 5: Asian Market Performance - Asian markets closed lower, with Japan's Nikkei falling by 0.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dipping by 2.08%, China's Shanghai Composite down by 0.96%, and India's BSE Sensex decreasing by 0.36% [5] Group 6: Economic Indicators - U.S. producer prices increased by 0.5% month-over-month in December, marking the largest rise in three months and exceeding market expectations of 0.2% [6] - The Chicago PMI rose to 54 in January from 42.7 in the previous month, surpassing market estimates of 44 [6]

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Over the past two decades Apple and Google have created one of the most lucrative duopolies in business history. But challengers are hoping to disrupt the titans of the smartphone era https://t.co/K1xjJKaHxCIllustration: Fortunate Joaquin https://t.co/EyHvzzmoZh ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the anticipated price increase in eight-inch wafer foundry services driven by rising AI-related power demand and production cuts by major manufacturers [2] - TrendForce's latest survey indicates a shift in the supply-demand dynamics for eight-inch wafers, with TSMC and Samsung reducing production while AI-related Power IC demand remains strong [2] - Chinese wafer manufacturers have seen their eight-inch capacity utilization rates rebound to high levels since 2025, and other regions are also receiving revised orders for 2026, prompting foundries to consider price hikes [2] Group 2 - The smartphone market is expected to face significant production pressure starting in the second quarter of 2026 due to tight supply and soaring prices of memory components [5] - As a result of increased costs, smartphone brands are likely to raise end-product prices, leading to weakened demand and production performance starting in the second quarter of 2026 [5] - Although brands have not yet significantly adjusted their production plans for the first quarter of 2026, the impact of rising end-user prices is anticipated to affect production negatively [5]

Group 1: U.S. Military Action in Venezuela - Approximately 15,000 personnel were involved in the raid to capture Venezuelan President Maduro [1] - U.S. troops are expected to be stationed off Venezuela's coast, but the duration of their presence remains unclear [1] - President Trump stated that the U.S. would "run" Venezuela and stabilize the government to resume oil production [3] Group 2: Impact on Financial Markets - The capture of Maduro has led to a boost in stock futures, with the Dow Jones up about 30 points and Nasdaq-100 futures up 98 points [5][7] - The S&P 500 ended the previous week down 1%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.5% and the Dow decreased by 0.7% [13] - The market had previously experienced a bullish year in 2025, with the S&P 500 up 16.6% and the Nasdaq up 20.4% [13] Group 3: Venezuela's Oil Reserves - Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, estimated at 300 billion barrels, surpassing even Saudi Arabia [9] - Oil production in Venezuela has declined by approximately 70% since 2000 due to various factors including corruption and mismanagement [11] - Trump indicated that U.S. companies would be invited back to manage Venezuela's oil resources, which were previously controlled by them until expropriated in 1976 [11] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Reports - Upcoming economic reports, including job growth and consumer confidence, are expected to influence market reactions to the situation in Venezuela [19][20] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.7% from 4.6% in November, with job creation dropping to about 54,000 from 64,000 [22]

Group 1: AI's Impact on ASEAN and Malaysia - The AI industry is projected to contribute 10% to 18% growth in ASEAN's GDP by 2030, creating over $1 trillion in potential value [1] - Malaysia views AI as a core path to national modernization, enhancing quality of life and improving efficiency for businesses [4][5] - Traditional industries are expected to be reshaped and upgraded through AI integration rather than being simply eliminated [4][5] Group 2: Malaysia's AI Development Strategy - Malaysia plans to establish a National AI Office in December 2024 to promote the AI ecosystem and develop relevant policies [3] - The AI Office will collaborate with the Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry to implement AI technologies across various sectors [3] - The government has allocated funds in the 2023 budget to support technology education, aiming to prepare the workforce for AI applications [5] Group 3: Collaboration with China - Malaysia and China have a strong trade relationship, with China being Malaysia's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years [6] - The two countries are expected to deepen cooperation in emerging technologies, including AI, with Malaysia aiming to be among the top 20 AI economies by 2030 [5][6] - Chinese tech companies have successfully entered the Malaysian market, providing various services and products that enhance local development [9] Group 4: AI in Traditional Industries - AI is seen as essential for enhancing sectors like services, agriculture, and logistics, which will not be replaced but rather empowered by technology [5] - The integration of AI can lead to new business models and structural changes in traditional industries, especially in labor-intensive sectors [5] - A proposed "AI scoring system" could help evaluate foreign labor, showcasing AI's potential to create self-regulating mechanisms in the workforce [5] Group 5: China's AI Industry - China is recognized for having a complete AI industry chain, driving the sector towards high-end development [7] - The rapid advancements in AI in China are characterized by speed, strong implementation, and high cost-effectiveness [7] - China's AI ecosystem is extensive, covering data, chips, models, and applications, contributing to its robust growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - The smartphone sector is facing challenges in 2026 due to a super memory cycle affecting DRAM/NAND prices, while the smart EV and AI business remains a focal point for debate. Despite negative sentiment, if Xiaomi's new products can replicate past successes, the stock is expected to recover [1]. Group 1: Smart EV Business - Xiaomi is anticipated to maintain a product upcycle in its smart EV business, with solid traction expected from new models like the upgraded SU7 facelift, YU9-EREV, and YU7 GT variant [2]. - Concerns that Xiaomi's smart EV business in 2026 may underperform like Li Auto's this year are viewed as overly pessimistic, as Li Auto's issues stem from specific product weaknesses and external incidents [2]. - Sales estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been modestly revised down to 651,000 and 931,000 units, respectively, with operating profit forecasts adjusted to RMB7.7 billion and RMB14.9 billion due to lower gross margin estimates and increased R&D costs in AI [2]. Group 2: Traditional Business - Negative sentiment surrounding Xiaomi's traditional business is expected to persist as memory prices continue to rise, leading to a likely negative growth in smartphone shipments for 2026 [2]. - The phase-out of the 2025 national subsidy and uncertainty regarding the 2026 subsidy have raised concerns about Xiaomi's IoT growth [2]. - Despite the negative industry developments, Xiaomi's progress in premiumization and AI is seen as enhancing the company's risk resilience moving forward [2]. Group 3: Valuation - The valuation for Xiaomi's traditional business is set at HK$35.5 per share using a 22x 2026E P/E ratio, while the EV business is valued at HK$20.71 per share, leading to a new sum-of-the-parts target price of HK$56.21, down from HK$69.04 [4].