Americans are also concerned about the effects of tariffs on their wallets. Though the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is poised to boost tax refunds this year, the Tax Foundation estimates that for middle-income households, tariffs will erase 70% to 95% of those gains. For lower-income tax filers, the situation is even worse (4).Since 2020, costs have soared — the price of groceries is up 30%, electricity has risen 41% and car repairs have skyrocketed 63%. And while average weekly wages have risen 31% over the ...

Market Overview - U.S. stocks traded mostly higher, with the Dow Jones index gaining over 200 points, up 0.45% to 50,348.12, while the NASDAQ fell 0.03% to 23,059.26 and the S&P 500 rose 0.21% to 6,955.97 [1] Sector Performance - Real estate shares increased by 2.1% on Thursday, indicating strong performance in that sector [1] - Communication services stocks experienced a decline of 0.4% [1] Job Market - U.S. initial jobless claims decreased by 5,000 to 227,000, which was higher than market estimates of 222,000 [2][6] Commodity Prices - Oil prices fell by 0.8% to $64.09, while gold decreased by 0.4% to $5,079.00. Silver dropped 1.2% to $82.915, and copper saw a slight increase of 0.1% to $5.9690 [3] European Market Performance - European shares showed mixed results, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising 0.4%, while Spain's IBEX 35 Index fell 0.2%. London's FTSE 100 slipped 0.1%, Germany's DAX gained 1.4%, and France's CAC 40 rose 1.1% [4] Asian Market Performance - Asian markets closed mixed, with Japan's Nikkei down 0.02%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index down 0.86%, China's Shanghai Composite up 0.05%, and India's BSE Sensex down 0.66% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market showed positive movement with Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures rising ahead of the January jobs report, while Astera Labs and Robinhood experienced significant declines due to earnings reports [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Dow Jones futures increased by 0.2% along with S&P 500 futures, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1]. - Nasdaq 100 also showed positive trading activity, contributing to the overall market optimism [1]. Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Astera Labs (ALAB) stock dropped despite reporting solid Q4 results and guidance, reflecting market disappointment or profit-taking [1]. - Robinhood Markets (HOOD) retreated following a Q4 earnings miss, which may signal challenges in its business model or market conditions [1]. - Both companies are highlighted as significant movers in the current trading session, indicating their impact on market sentiment [1].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are advised to consider long-dated put options on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF due to anticipated increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury markets, driven by rising geopolitical risks and concerns over the national debt trajectory [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. Treasury debt market is facing significant headwinds, including geopolitical risks and an unsustainable national debt trajectory [1]. - Recent trends indicate that bond and stock market volatility has increased, suggesting a potential for strategic options trading [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - A long-dated put option on TLT stock is recommended for investors looking to capitalize on expected Treasury market volatility [1]. - There are various options strategies available for investors, including a long straddle, which may be beneficial if bond volatility increases [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in S&P 500 futures is attributed to a significant liquidation event in the precious metals sector, rather than poor corporate health [1][2]. Group 1: Mechanics of the Sell-Off - The sell-off is characterized as a "non-stock related sell-off" driven by over-leveraged commodity traders facing losses in gold and silver [2]. - Traders who borrowed capital to invest in precious metals are forced to liquidate positions in other markets, particularly S&P 500 futures, to cover margin calls [3][4]. Group 2: Market Impact and Investor Sentiment - The forced selling creates an artificial dip in the stock market that does not reflect traditional economic indicators [4]. - Investors are cautioned against interpreting market dips as signs of an impending crash, with a recommendation to focus on long-term value [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The current market volatility presents a strategic entry point for long-term investors, as the selling pressure originates from distressed commodity traders rather than fundamental economic shifts [5]. Group 4: Benchmark Indices Performance - The top U.S. indices exhibited mixed performance, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.23% over the past week, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones indices fell by 0.29% and 0.50%, respectively [6].

Core Viewpoint - Major crypto exchanges Binance and OKX are exploring the reintroduction of tokenized US stocks to diversify into real-world assets amid stagnant crypto trading volumes [1][4]. Group 1: Tokenized Stocks Initiative - Binance is considering relaunching tokenized stocks for non-US users, a product it previously tested in 2021 but abandoned due to regulatory challenges [2][3]. - The initial launch in April 2021 included stock tokens for major companies like Tesla, Microsoft, and Apple, issued by German broker CM-Equity AG [2]. - The service was discontinued in July 2021 under regulatory pressure from authorities such as Germany's BaFin and the UK's FCA, which viewed the offerings as unlicensed securities [3]. Group 2: Market Context and Motivations - Crypto exchanges are seeking new revenue streams due to persistent stagnation in trading volumes, with average daily spot volumes in January 2026 tracking 2% below December and 37% below November levels [5]. - Analysts indicate that crypto markets remain largely dormant, with volatility and trading volume near December's lows, suggesting a liquidity trap that amplifies risk for traders [6][7]. - The exploration of tokenized equities is seen as a "natural next step" for bridging traditional finance and crypto [4].

Binance is considering bringing back tokenized stock trading on its platform, after abandoning the product in 2021. Stock tokens are digital representations of shares in public companies. Instead of owning a whole share of Apple or Microsoft, an investor can buy a fraction of a share — held and settled on a blockchain — mirroring the real-time price of the underlying asset. "Binance is committed to bridging traditional finance and crypto, expanding user choices while maintaining the highest regulatory s ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have increased, reflecting a positive sentiment in the market, while Hong Kong stocks have experienced a rally, indicating a recovery in investor confidence [1] Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have gained, suggesting a shift in investor preference towards safe-haven assets amid market volatility [1] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to various economic factors, including inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market - Hong Kong stocks have rallied, showing a significant recovery from previous declines, which may be driven by improved economic outlook and investor sentiment [1] - The rally in Hong Kong stocks indicates a potential rebound in the region's economic activity, attracting both local and foreign investments [1]

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, experienced declines on Monday, with Bitcoin down 1.03% to $87,054.88 and Ethereum down 1.13% to $2,926.76 [2][3] - Bitcoin's trading volume surged by 187% in the last 24 hours, indicating high liquidity and trader interest, despite its price falling back to $86,000 after briefly surpassing $90,000 [3] - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 1% to $2.95 trillion [7] Stock Market Performance - Cryptocurrency-linked stocks, such as Strategy Inc. and Coinbase Global Inc., saw declines of 2.15% and 1.32%, respectively [4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 249.04 points (0.51%) to 48,461.93, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also experienced declines of 0.35% and 0.50% [8] Commodities Market - Silver prices dropped approximately 10% after reaching record highs of over $80 per ounce, while gold pulled back more than 4% from its record high of $4,550 per ounce [9] Market Sentiment and Trends - The Crypto Fear and Greed Index indicates a prevailing "Extreme Fear" sentiment in the market [6] - Analysts noted a bullish divergence between Bitcoin and gold, suggesting that Bitcoin may outperform gold in the near future [11] - Long-term Bitcoin holders have reduced selling, leading to a growth in supply, which historically precedes consolidation phases or bullish recoveries [12]

Core Insights - xStocks has launched on the TON blockchain, allowing Telegram users outside the US to trade tokenized versions of US stocks and ETFs directly within the app, adding to the competitive landscape of tokenized stocks [1][4] - The trend towards tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) is expected to grow by 2025, with various financial instruments appearing on blockchains to enhance liquidity [2][8] - Kraken's involvement lends credibility to xStocks, which previously faced competition from smaller, less recognized projects, and follows earlier initiatives in tokenized stocks on Telegram [5] Group 1: xStocks and TON - xStocks provides tokenized equities that mirror real stocks or ETFs, functioning like a "claim ticket" that tracks the price of actual shares [3] - By integrating with TON, xStocks allows users to trade on-chain stocks in a user-friendly chat interface, simplifying the trading process for beginners [4][6] - The platform has already accumulated around $180 million in assets across nearly 50,000 wallets on Solana and Ethereum, indicating significant interest in tokenized stocks [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and User Access - The launch of xStocks represents a shift in access to US stocks, as users no longer need traditional brokerage accounts, allowing for self-custody of tokens [6] - Tokenized stocks on TON are part of a broader trend of RWA tokenization, which includes initiatives like JPMorgan's tokenized money-market fund, highlighting the intersection of traditional finance and crypto [8] - Users must understand the legal implications of holding xStocks tokens, as they represent creditor rights to collateral held by custodians, emphasizing the importance of the underlying legal framework [7]