中国生物制药-2024 财年业绩符合预期；2025 财年指引两位数增长

Summary of Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK) - Fiscal Year End: December 31 Key Financial Highlights - FY24 Revenue: Rmb28.9 billion, an increase of 10.2% year-over-year (yoy) [1] - Adjusted Net Profit: Rmb3,457 million, up 33.5% yoy [1] - Gross Margin: Increased to 81.5% in FY24 from 81% in FY23 [1] - R&D Expense Ratio: Rose to 17.6% from 16.8% in FY23 [1] - Management Guidance for FY25: Double-digit growth in revenue and net profit expected [1] Revenue Growth Drivers - Innovative Drugs: Contributed 42% of total revenue in FY24, growing by 21.9% yoy to Rmb12 billion [2] - Generic Drugs: Grew by 3.1% yoy in FY24; expected to maintain positive growth as the impact of Volume-Based Procurement (VBP) diminishes [2] - Management's Launch Plan: Anticipates launching over 10 generic drugs annually [2] Segment Performance - Oncology Revenue: Increased by 22.0% yoy to Rmb10.7 billion [3] - Respiratory Sales: Grew by 6.2% yoy to Rmb3.1 billion [3] - Surgery/Analgesia Sales: Rose by 18.9% yoy to Rmb4.4 billion [3] - Hepatitis/Cardio-Cerebral Sales: Decreased by 10.1% and 21% yoy to Rmb3.4 billion and Rmb2.2 billion, respectively [3] Pipeline and Future Prospects - Upcoming Drug Approvals: Three innovative drugs expected to be approved in 2025 [4] - TQB3616 for HR+HER2- breast cancer - TQ05105 for myelofibrosis - QP001 for post-operative pain Risks and Concerns - Biosimilar VBP Risk: Potential impact from the upcoming nationwide biosimilar VBP in 2025 remains a concern [5] - Revised Estimates: FY26 revenue and EPS estimates cut by 5% and 6% respectively to account for potential biosimilar VBP impact [5] Valuation and Investment Strategy - Target Price: Lowered to HK$6.20 from HK$7.00, with a Buy recommendation maintained [5][7] - Market Capitalization: HK$69.448 billion (approximately US$8.935 billion) [7] - Expected Share Price Return: 67.6% [7] - Expected Total Return: 69.2% [7] Conclusion Sino Biopharmaceutical is positioned for growth driven by innovative drugs and a stable generic drug market. However, potential risks from biosimilar VBP and the need for successful product launches remain critical factors for investors to consider. The company’s strong R&D capabilities and expanding sales network are expected to benefit its long-term growth trajectory in the Chinese pharmaceutical market.