四川路桥 20250410 2025-04-11 摘要 • 四川作为西部大开发重要区域，基建投资强度和战略地位显著提升，城镇 化率低于全国平均水平，公路基建仍有较大增长空间，为四川路桥带来发 展机遇。 • 四川路桥采用投建一体化模式，营运能力高于普通建筑企业，控股股东蜀 道集团持续增持股份至近 80%，体现产业资本信心，并提供强大支持。 • 公司通过转让亏损业务给蜀道集团，实现减亏约 5 亿元，并逐步提高分红 比例，计划 2025 年提高至 60%，预计全年股息率达 7%。 • 截至 2025 年第一季度，四川路桥新签项目金额达 350 亿元，同比增长 19%，其中基建订单占比 88%，同比增长 28%，订单修复状况显著改善。 • 公司海外业务占比虽小，但呈现加速发展态势，主要市场集中在中亚和非 洲地区，新项目预计将带来新的增量业务。 • 自控股股东增持以来，四川路桥股票超额收益明显，五年累计涨幅达 265%，但 2023 年底以来有所回调，随着订单恢复及业绩改善，未来股 票表现乐观。 • 四川省重点项目投资额巨大，为四川路桥提供了稳定的发展前景，公司人 事调整及订单持续改善，目前是一个较好的上行时机。 Q& ...

2025-04-11 摘要 • 新大陆受益于消费政策和行业格局优化，预计一季度利润增长超 20%，全 年净利润达 13-14 亿元，当前估值约 20 倍，具性价比。公司积极回购股 份，上限提至 37 元，已回购 1.22 亿元，彰显信心。 • 新国都一季度业绩或稍弱，但全年预计利润至少达 7 亿元，当前估值仅 17 倍，性价比高。去年受补税和减值影响，实际利润较低，但机构已消化一 季度预期，看好全年表现。 • 支付行业格局优化，头部企业如新大陆、新国都受益，议价能力提升。头 部收单机构净费率显著上行，毛利率大幅提高，表明行业盈利质量明显改 善。 • 新大陆 2024 年支付流水预计 2.2-2.3 万亿元，新国都 1.47 万亿元，下半 年优于上半年。消费刺激政策传导需时，预计 6 月或下半年流水改善更明 显。 • 新大陆和新国都积极拓展海外支付设备市场，重点布局拉美、中东非、欧 美等高端市场。新大陆拉美市场增速约 15%，新国都 24 年海外设备收入 同比增长 64%。 Q&A 目前对新大陆和新国都的投资建议是什么？ 对于新大陆，我们非常看好其今年（2025 年）的机会。公司最近发布了回购 进展公告，显示出 ...

LIPO 趋势受益标的：隆利科技、德邦科技 20250409 2025-04-11 摘要 • LIPO（低压注塑成型）技术作为一种手机屏幕封装技术，通过光敏树脂液 态封装，可实现超窄边框和等边效果，提升防水性能和跌落牢固性，尽管 增加封装成本 20-30 元，但减少了点胶、检测排线等工序成本。 • 苹果于 2021 年率先应用 LIPO 技术于 Apple Watch，2023 年引入 iPhone 15 Pro 系列，安卓机型预计 2025 年迎来快速渗透期，OPPO、 小米等品牌已积极跟进，市场反馈良好，预示着 LIPO 技术在安卓市场的 巨大潜力。 • OLED 封装技术主要应用于中小尺寸智能终端，预计 2025 年全球中小尺 寸 OLED 智能终端总销量将超过 11 亿台，其中智能手机约为 6.6 亿部， 智能穿戴设备约为 1.51 亿部，市场基数庞大。 • 预计 2025 年至 2028 年，OLED 封装技术在智能手机领域的渗透率将逐 步提升，分别达到 12%、25%、40%和 55%，预示着相关产业链企业将 迎来巨大的市场空间。 • 投资机会集中在封装工艺（隆利科技）和光敏树脂材料（德邦科技）两 ...

聚光科技 20250409 2025-04-11 摘要 • 中国质谱仪市场需求巨大，年需求约 200 亿元，但国产化率低。聚光科技 在质谱领域具有领先优势，通过国产替代策略，有望提升市场份额和收入。 • 国产替代分三个层次：ICP-MS（110 分产品）已率先实现替代，LC- MS/MS（85 分产品）在中低端场景表现良好，高分辨质谱（OB Trip 等）尚处于研发初期。聚光科技已与国内领先晶圆厂商试样 ICP-MS，预 计 2025 年落地。 • 美国商务部禁止向中国销售流式细胞仪和 top-down 蛋白质组学质谱，涉 及 trap 技术。聚光科技子公司普育科技已获国家专项支持，加速相关产品 研发迭代。 • 中美关税战背景下，进口产品优势减弱，为聚光科技提升 110 分产品性价 比、扩大市场份额提供了机会。赛默飞世尔、丹纳赫及安捷伦等跨国公司 对产线搬迁至中国持谨慎态度，主要担心技术外溢。 • 国家政策支持力度加大，预计投入约 6,000 亿人民币，其中教育领域有 180 亿用于教学设备和科研仪器更新，利好国内科学仪器厂商，聚光科技 有望受益。 Q&A 从行业层面来看，中国对美进口的精密仪器市场规模如何， ...

• 嘉益股份受益于全球化战略，非美地区订单占比已达 70%，2024 年整体 比例超过 30%，显示出强劲的国际市场扩张势头，尤其在欧洲市场增长显 著，订单金额达数百万美元。 • 越南工厂产能快速爬坡，预计 2025 年可达 2,500 万至 3,000 万支，目标 2026 年达到 5,000 万支，旨在覆盖美国订单并实现与国内产能一比一布 局，同时满足 Stanley、星巴克等大客户的强劲需求。 • 客户对关税政策态度明确，更关注越南生产基地的进展，目前 Voltalia 与 史丹利在关税态度上保持一致，越南出货无需承担中国出口的约 5%关税， 具备成本优势。 • 公司积极推进越南工厂本土化供应链，虽原材料品质和稳定性测试流程较 长（通常需六个月以上），但通过 EPE 企业保税区政策，从国内采购原材 料无需缴纳关税和增值税，降低了采购成本。 • 2024 年第四季度毛利率下降受多重因素影响，包括越南产能爬坡、新客 户厂房设备投入及股权激励费用计入生产成本，预计随着产能转移和成本 消化，未来毛利率有望改善。 Q&A 最近关税政策频繁变化，公司下游客户对此有何反应？ 嘉益股份 20250410 2025-04 ...

中国长城 2025041011 Q&A 如何看待中美关税战对中国自主可控产业的影响？ 中美关税战是国际大国博弈背景下的一个阶段性现象，但它加速了中国自主可 控产业的发展。关税政策对进口美国商品，尤其是半导体产品产生了直接影响。 具体而言，中国从美国进口的半导体产品占比较大，2024 年英特尔在中国的 收入接近 155 亿美元，AMD 在中国区的收入也超过 60 亿美元。因此，关税对 这些公司的影响尤为显著。在此背景下，中国国内企业如飞腾信息等迎来了替 代机会。飞腾信息作为中国第三大服务器 CPU 供应商，其 2024 年收入接近 20 亿元人民币，并且随着新产品 S5,000 的推出和国产供应链逐步磨合，未来 有望在服务器市场取得更大的成长空间。 • 飞腾公司作为中国领先的自主核心芯片提供商，2024 年营收超过 20 亿美 元，总体销售量突破 1,000 万片。未来十年将加大研发投入，加速通用计 算芯片迭代及智算芯片研发，拓展金融、电信等行业应用。 • 预计中国长城 2024-2026 年营收分别为 155 亿元、188 亿元和 217 亿元， 对应归母净利润分别为负 12 亿元、0.39 亿元和 2.80 ...

Summary of Guanghe Technology Conference Call Company Overview - Guanghe Technology reported a steady revenue growth in 2024, with quarterly revenues of 784 million, 921 million, 975 million, and 1.054 billion yuan, and net profits of 145 million, 174 million, 173 million, and 184 million yuan respectively, despite a slight decline in Q3 due to exchange rate impacts [2][5][3]. Key Financial Performance - In 2024, Guanghe Technology achieved total revenue of 3.734 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.43%, and net profit of 676 million yuan, up 63.04% year-on-year [3]. - AI product sales totaled 860 million yuan in 2024, with the top five customers contributing significantly, the largest customer accounting for 44% of sales [4][15]. Growth Drivers - The strong performance in Q1 2025 is attributed to increased market share in AI server business, reasonable order arrangements, and enhanced production during the Spring Festival [6]. - The company anticipates 2025 revenues of 4 billion yuan from the Guangzhou factory and 700-800 million yuan from the Huangshi factory, with a stable gross and net profit margin expected [4][30]. Globalization Strategy - Guanghe Technology is accelerating its globalization efforts by enhancing overseas factory capacities and diversifying production locations to mitigate risks associated with market dependency and tariffs [8]. - The company is closely monitoring the impact of U.S. tariffs on its business, noting that direct exports to the U.S. account for only 0.12% of revenue, with most operations concentrated in Asia [7]. AI Server Development - The company is continuously upgrading its AI server capabilities, achieving a 60% production level on the Yijin platform and addressing the rapid updates in AI server chips with advanced PCB requirements [10][11]. - Guanghe Technology has invested heavily in R&D for high-end PCB products, with a focus on meeting the increasing demands of the AI market [20][32]. Market Dynamics and Challenges - Despite potential tariff impacts, the company has not observed significant changes in order patterns from clients, maintaining flexibility in response to market dynamics [9][19]. - The high demand for high-end PCBs, coupled with tight supply, is expected to enhance the company's bargaining power in the market [20]. Future Outlook - The company plans to maintain a production capacity utilization rate of around 90% in 2024, with expected production value of approximately 4 billion yuan [25]. - Guanghe Technology is committed to enhancing its operational capabilities and maintaining strong communication with clients to adapt to market changes and ensure stable business development [21][22]. Conclusion - Guanghe Technology is well-positioned for growth in the AI server market, with a robust strategy for global expansion and a focus on high-end PCB production, while navigating potential challenges from tariffs and market fluctuations [8][30].

Summary of the Conference Call for Bangyan Technology Industry and Company Overview - Bangyan Technology is targeting the commercial computer market valued at 200 billion yuan, with a focus on domestic demand for localization. The company has already converted contracts exceeding 40 million yuan in Q1 2025, with expectations for better-than-expected contributions to annual performance, primarily from central state-owned enterprises and financial institutions [2][3][24]. Core Points and Arguments - **Military-Civilian Integration Strategy**: The company has established a strategic layout that includes four major sectors: military, civilian encryption, cloud PC, and AIA construction projects. The AIA project is set to launch in 2025, enhancing UPR and traditional military products with intelligence capabilities [2][5]. - **Expansion in Marine Management**: Bangyan Technology is actively expanding its marine management business, having signed contracts with specific shipyards to advance communication and encryption products for special vessels. Incremental business is expected to be delivered in 2025-2026, with military operations providing stable revenue [2][6]. - **Focus on Health Sector**: The company is expanding into the health sector, having already implemented projects with a top-tier hospital in Guangzhou. They plan to launch new products in 2025, leveraging AI agents to assist in digital transformation [2][7][8]. - **Acquisition of Xinwang Xintong**: The acquisition aims to achieve dual-use development. Xinwang Xintong is a key player in Huawei's supply chain and has signed contracts worth 160 million yuan in the first half of the year, with expected deliveries in 2025-2026 [2][9][11]. Financial Performance and Projections - **Bad Debt Provisions**: In 2024, the company recorded over 60 million yuan in bad debt due to slow payments on projects delivered in 2022. It is anticipated that about half of this will be recovered in 2025, leading to a significant turnaround in profits [4][12][14]. - **Order Backlog**: As of the end of 2024, the company had an order backlog of approximately 150-160 million yuan and net accounts receivable of about 300 million yuan. The company expects at least 300 million yuan in revenue from infrastructure investments in 2025 [4][14]. - **Gross Margin Trends**: The gross margin is expected to improve in 2025, driven by a higher proportion of health communication products, which maintain a gross margin above 60%. However, there is a general downward pressure on margins due to new accounting policies [15][16]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - **Cloud PC Market**: The cloud PC product is positioned in a market with an annual output of approximately 400 million units, corresponding to a market space of about 200 billion yuan in China. The company aims to capture a 5% market share, which could lead to sales exceeding 10 billion yuan [25]. - **Competitive Advantages**: Bangyan Technology's cloud PC solution utilizes CCI cloud computing, avoiding issues associated with VDI virtualization solutions. Major clients include Southern Power Grid and State Grid, which have already signed contracts [25]. Additional Insights - **R&D Investment**: The company has increased R&D personnel and salaries due to investments in military product development and AI innovations, leading to higher overall R&D expenditures [20]. - **Non-Military Business Growth**: Non-military business is expected to account for nearly 20% of total revenue in 2025, primarily from domestic online board card support and commercial encryption products [21]. - **Future Outlook**: The company is optimistic about achieving significant revenue growth in 2025, with expectations of reaching 600-700 million yuan in total revenue, driven by both traditional military and new cloud PC business lines [24][26].

关税之争下大宗农产品价格走势展望 20250410 2025-04-11 摘要 • 中国大豆进口依赖巴西和美国，受季节性影响显著。若中美关税谈判失败， 四季度至春节前进口成本将上升，国内市场价格波动加剧，上半年价格偏 弱，四季度价格偏强，对股票交易策略产生影响。 • 美国生物柴油政策推动大豆需求增长，可能导致美国大豆压榨产能扩张， 减少出口量。这将加剧全球大豆贸易竞争，推高价格，对全球大豆供需平 衡产生重大影响，投资者需密切关注政策实施进展。 • 2025 年南美大豆进口成本逐月上升，10 月份预计达到 3,750 元/吨以上， 极端情况可达 4,000 元/吨。高成本对下游养殖业接受度较低，可能影响豆 粕需求和价格，投资者需关注成本上涨对相关企业盈利的影响。 • 国内压榨企业通过采购南美大豆并锁定压榨利润，效益显著提高。企业利 用期货市场进行套利和锁定利润，确保收益最大化，投资者可关注相关企 业的套期保值策略和盈利能力。 • 四季度若无法进口美国大豆，美国减种植面积将进一步推高成本至 38,000-39,000 元，远期价格可能达到 34,000-35,000 元。中美谈判结 果将直接影响大豆价格走势，投资 ...

Summary of Conference Call for Su Shi Testing Company Overview - The company discussed its performance in 2024, highlighting a revenue decline of 4.31% year-on-year to 2.026 billion yuan, with a net profit decrease of 27% to 229 million yuan [3][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown for 2024: - Surveillance monitoring system revenue: 621 million yuan, down 17.25% - Surveillance equipment revenue: 1.009 billion yuan, up 0.64% - Integrated circuit revenue: 288 million yuan, up 12.33% [2][3]. - Gross margin for environmental testing equipment: 29.38%, down 2.71% - Gross margin for real-time services: 56.96%, down 1.84% - Gross margin for integrated circuits: 29.67%, down 3.60% - Overall gross margin increased slightly to 44.54%, up 1.06% [3][4]. Industry Dynamics - The renewable energy sector experienced a price drop of approximately 15%, but revenue grew by 20% and workload increased by 30% [2][4]. - The demand in special industries showed a significant recovery in Q1 2025, with an increase in orders, while orders from third-party testing agencies decreased [2][5]. - The military sector continues to see growth in orders, primarily in certification testing, with a positive demand outlook for the coming years [2][8]. Cost and Efficiency Management - The company plans to expand technical and market personnel while controlling other personnel costs to optimize the cost structure [2][6]. - The increase in expenses outpaced revenue growth due to personnel costs, including salaries and social security contributions [6]. Trade and Market Conditions - Trade friction has impacted the equipment sector, prompting the company to monitor international developments closely and enhance R&D and market expansion efforts [7]. - The company is focusing on domestic substitution in the integrated circuit sector, with a significant reduction in the proportion of imported equipment [7]. Future Outlook - The company aims to reduce investments in traditional price competition and focus on emerging industries and technologies [25]. - The management anticipates a peak business period in the second half of 2025, with preparations already underway [8][9]. - The company expects to maintain or slightly improve gross margins through increased efficiency and a higher proportion of certification testing [10][12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its capabilities in high-precision technology and space-related testing, with new product launches planned [14][15][16]. - The management is optimistic about the future performance of the company, especially in light of the recovery in demand and strategic adjustments [29]. Conclusion - Overall, the company is navigating a challenging environment with a focus on optimizing costs, enhancing efficiency, and strategically positioning itself in emerging markets while managing the impacts of trade friction and competitive pressures [2][25][29].